10 MARCH 1944, Page 1

Turkey's Calculations

There has been much speculation in Turkey, and elsewhere, about the ending of the Anglo-Turkish consultations, followed by the stoppage of arms and war material from Great Britain which previously were flowing copiously into Turkish ports. The reason for cutting down the war supplies is clear enough. As long as Turkey was threatened by Germany and was preparing for vigorous defence it was our policy to furnish her with all the arms we could afford. But that direct threat has been removed. It would still be to our interest to keep up the supplies if she were willing to implement her treaty with Britain by taking an active part in the war or by permitting the use of her territory for our own forces. But since she is not yet willing to take either step it is obvious that we cannot afford tc send her arms which can be put to better

use elsewhere. In the past we fully appreciated the prudence with which Turkey remained out of the war when German power in the Balkans was great and when we might not have been able to give effective aid. The firmness with which she prepared to defend het

independence satisfied us. The time has come when she could safely play a more active part, but the calculations of her statesmen are that she has most to gain by refusing to be a belligerent until the more serious fighting is over. Her position only resembles that of Bulgaria in that both countries are waiting to see the issue. While Turkey is waiting to see whether she could at little cost enter the war, Bulgaria is wondering how she can get out of the war without giving up the territory she has seized from Yugoslavia and Greece. It is an insolent calculation, and there will be sharp disillusionment.