11 JANUARY 1946, Page 12

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

THE PREVENTION OF WAR

SIR,—The discoveries relating to the release of atomic energy and their application in the manufacture and use of the atomic bomb have brought home to humanity what the horrors of war may be in a way which has never been done before. It is also becoming increasingly evident, as Professor Oliphant and others have insisted, that the only way to prevent these horrors is for the great nations of the world effectively to resolve to refrain from war under all circumstances. The minor controversies as to whether the few secrets concerning the details of bomb construction should be revealed or not are of little real interest or importance, since it is open to any nation with the necessary capacity to acquire such knowledge and to apply it within a few years. The really important matter is to discover means whereby all the great nations can co-operate in a spirit of friendship to develop civilisation along peaceful lines and without creating a spirit of suspicion.

War can only be prevented by general agreement to remove, or at least to attempt to remove, the conditions which favour war. It is, of coarse, true that war may break out as the result of some minor political incident. But such a cause is seldom effective without the stimulus behind it of a feeling disposed towards war. And of all the conditions or factors which tend to favour war there can be no doubt that one of the most insidious and at the same time one of the most potent is the pressure of an increasing population. It is, I think, true that no nation has ever deliberately started an aggressive war if it is one with a stationary or declining birth-rate. On the other hand, it stems certain that the great increase in the population in Japan was the driving power behind the Japanese outbreak, just as it has been behind other aggressive wars. The recent announcement in this country of a Royal Commission to inquire into the question of a falling birth- rate is not calculated to allay suspicion in other countries, especially as one of its hardly disguised objects appears to be to recommend means to induce the people to multiply. It is, of course, obvious that, in such a matter, if the great nations are to remain at peace, we cannot act alone. And it may be premature to organise agreement as things are at present. But it is at least open to any nation to state that it is prepared to make an attempt to reach a concurrence with other nations in the matter of population control. For the solution of this question is even more important than that of limiting the manufacture and use of the atomic bomb or other destructive agents. Had such a con- currence been reached some time ago, there is little doubt that the world would have been spared much of the misery which has befallen it.

What Lord Keynes wrote some years ago is still true as the world is today. This is what he said :

"The problem of population is going to be not merely an economist's problem, but in the near future the greatest of all political questions. It will be a question which will arouse some of the deepest inst:ncts and emotions of men, and feeling may run as passionately as in the earlier struggles between religions. The issue is not yet joined. But when the instability of modern society forces it, a great transition in human history will have begun, with the endeavour by civilised man to assume conscious control in his own hands away from the blind instinct of mere predominant survival."