M. OLLIVIER'S POSITION.
IT is settled that Napoleon is to reign, and that the nominee I Chamber, elected under a different constitution and through official influence, is to continue in existence. The Plebiscite decided the first point, for whether the people re- established " personal power " or not, they confirmed the Emperor in the possession of the great powers reserved to him by the Constitution ; and the Emperor himself has decided the second. The points, therefore, for the constitutionalist to observe are the extent of authority which a Chamber thus discredited and, so to speak, superseded by a mass vote nevertheless retains to itself, and the direction in which it is disposed to exercise the power it preserves. The former would seem from recent incidents to be more considerable than was expected immediately after the Plebiscite, considerable enough, at all events, to shake the Ministry. On June 4, for example, during the discussion of a Bill reforming the Councils-General, or Departmental Parlia- ments, M. Clement Duvernois interpolated an amendment demanding that the proceedings of Councillors should be "reported," like those of the Legislative Chamber. His motion, which was exceedingly liberal, as it imposes on the Councillors a responsibility to opinion, was opposed by M. 011ivier, on the ground that he wished to consult the Councils on the subject, but M. Clement Duvernois pressed on, and a division was taken, which left the Government in a most humiliating position. The Right, which hates M. 011ivier as a Bonapartist of the morrow, the Right Centre, which distrusts him as too liberal, the Left Centre, which does not love him for his conduct about the Plebiscite, and besides approves of decentralization, and the Left, which is always for publicity, coalesced for a moment, and the all-powerful Premier only obtained 18 votes against 197 recorded for his enemies. As the Ministers voted in the minority, M. 011ivier's personal following in the Chamber would seem to be almost nothing. M. Clement Duvernois then moved that the speeches uttered in the Council should be reported with the speakers' names, and this also was resisted by M. 011ivier, who, perceiving that the vote was directed against himself, called upon his friends for support. The Left Centre responded, partly to protect M. 011ivier, partly suspicious of M. Clement Duvernois, and the Government was beaten only by 117 to 83 ; but still it was beaten, and felt, as Baron David subsequently said, that it had "received a first warning." M. 011ivier, chagrined to the last degree and probably alarmed, for good management in the Chamber is one of his claims to the Emperor's favour, resolved to obtain a vote of confidence. M. de Bethmont had a question put down for Monday asking the Government whether they intended to bring in a bill authorizing public meetings before the election of Councils- General, and M. 011ivier took advantage of the opportunity to explain his position. He was not going to remain Minister to be constantly beaten. His Cabinet was " the Cabinet of 2nd January," that is, Parliamentary ; his resignation would strengthen Parliamentary institutions, by proving that the Chamber could overthrow Ministers ; his security of support from the Chamber had been shaken by recent votes, and unless the Chamber rejected the interpellation by adopting the order of the day he must resign. The speech created an extraordinary uproar, the majority resenting it as an attempt to dictate ; while Baron David, the orator of the Right, declared that his party did lack confidence in the Ministry, which was a mere " Ministry of indecision," neither autocratic nor liberal, that he should vote with a Government he absolutely dis- trusted, only because such a vote would show how hollow was the Minister's majority. In spite of a spirited appeal from M. 011ivier, who flatly refused support from the Right, the sardonic vote of confidence was unanimously carried, and all excuse for resignation torn away.
All this is bad for M. 011ivier, who, indeed, seems in his vacillating vanity to have forfeited support from every side, and to hold power only while he is convenient to the Emperor, but we are not so sure that it is bad for Parliamentary govern- ment. On the contrary, we suspect that it is good. His weakness may prove to be the Chamber's strength. It may be, as Paris will have it, that M. Clement Duvernois knew that a blow to the Premier would be acceptable at the Tuileries, and that Baron David had a quiet hint not to outvote the Minister too soon, and that the Left Centre was more indisposed to risk the return of IL Rouher than disposed to pardon M. 011ivier ; but nevertheless the Chamber during one debate did possess, visibly possess, the power of dismissing the Ministry. It did not, it may be, possess also the power of nominating his suc- cessor, for the Constitution leaves that to the Emperor ; but the power of dismissal once established by precedent, the pos- sibility of a vote of no confidence once admitted, the Minister, whoever he is, must bend more or less to Parliamentary will. It is not yet twelve months since the mere idea of a hostile vote in the Chamber would have seemed treasonable, nor three years since M. Rouher, when asked what the Government would do if the majority in the Chamber were ever hostile, refused to consider so impossible a situation. The Parliamentary regime, which seemed so near, has been postponed by the Plebiscite, but the Chamber has not been flung back to the position it occupied before the interpellation of the 116. The change since the last election is enormous, oven if the Chamber is at heart more Conservative than the Ministry, for a popular assembly if it can once obtain power is sure to feel the impres- sion of popular opinion, sure sooner or later to exalt its own authority above that of all other powers within the State. It is the nation or nothing, even when, like the nation, it elects to submit to Napoleon III.
There is, however, little reason to believe that the Chamber is Conservative in any English sense, or, indeed, in any intelligible sense at all. Its opinions are still indefinite, for since its election serious legislation, which has been diminished in amount throughout Napoleon's reign, has been almost at a standstill ; but there is a violent presumption that it desires, as far as may be, to reflect the opinions of the electorate. It was in obedience to the wishes, real or supposed, of the electors, that the majority demanded the abrogation of personal power ; out of obedience to them that they supported the first free Ministry ; and through obedience to them that they must seek to efface the original defect in their own title, the compulsion exercised during the last election. The electors, it seems certain, though willing to support the dynasty, as they proved during the Plebiscite, are not desirous of reaction, of restricting liberty, or of punishing opposition more severely than at present. A reactionary policy would be unpopular, and without a reactionary policy a Chamber strong enough to unseat Ministers is pretty sure to accrete to itself a large measure of power. Even, therefore, if M. Rouher returned to office, we doubt if it would be to play precisely the old ride, to order laws to be passed, or to put an end to all reality of dis- cussion. He would rather employ his undoubted talent for Parliamentary management in convincing the majority, and conciliate by granting all liberties not inconsistent with the posi- tion in the Government which the Emperor seems determined to maintain,—a position which bears a close though not quite a perfect analogy to that of the American President. Even M. Rouher could not, for instance, replace M. Haussmann, or wholly suppress the freedom of the Press, or re-enact the Law of Public Safety, or carry out preparations for a war in total silence. He must retain some sort of accord with the Chamber, an accord of opinion as well as of votes, under penalty of some day encountering a vote which the Emperor could not disregard without a coup (fetal. The Empire is " ameliorated," if not controlled, by the Representative Body, and though the gain to true freedom may not be much, still it is worth something. That M. 011ivier is weak is certain, but his weakness may not be all gain to his master's personal power.
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