Dead Ends
From SARAH GAINHAM
BONN
Bora the events of the week in Bonn—neither of which occurred in Bonn itself—were non- events which appeared to solve problems of weight but which in fact make no difference to the internal and external problems of policy which burden the Federal Republic. The speech of Foreign Minister Schroeder in Brussels, and the agreement of the coalition party leaders at Cadenabbia over ratification of the Franco- German treaty, just pushed what the Welt recently called this government of administration further towards a vacuum of policy.
Following on the recent brilliant speech of the Common Market Chairman Hallstein, Schroeder emphasised in Brussels the need to re-establish the equality of the six EEC members. To this end the various branches of the Rome Treaty must in future be kept in harmonious development; special favours to one member on promise of future agreements to the others which are then not honoured must cease; the centrifugal move- ment of the EEC, caused by decisions domin- ated by parties other than the political Council of Ministers and the Commission, has to be changed; and a yearly plan covering current action must be set up—and adhered to. All these points are aimed mainly at the French and all are important to the future of EEC; and the French Foreign Minister agreed to them in general. There is just one difficulty—the French will not stick to them and Couve de Murville made this clear at once.
He said that liberalisation outwards from the Market can best be achieved in the coming discussions between the Six and America in the GATT framework. And once the internal agricultural decisions agreed to inside EEC are brought into force nothing stands in the way of agreement over external customs reductions. These agricultural agreements, chiefly the levelling of wheat prices, are at once the only political weapon the other five have against France, and represent the future dependence of Germany and Benelux on France for basic foods in a quite short space of time. So, if the French are not going to agree formally that the rules, written and unwritten, will be kept in future, then the other five dare not put their food supplies in French hands. The deadlock remains; there are still no means of controlling the French. From the Chancellor's holiday villa in Italy agreement was reached on a preamble to the Franco-German treaty stating that in Germany it will operate in accordance with the Atlantic Alliance and the Rome Treaty. The preamble is meaningless, for it is not Germany that wants to alter the NATO alliance, nor is it Germany who constantly bends the Rome Treaty to her own advantage. Adenauer did not want a preamble at all but his gesture in giving in ensured the further co-operation of the Free Democrats inside the coalition as well as the ratification of the French Treaty. Adenauer has thus freed his hands for the struggle to maintain his personal position and stay in office until the 1965 elections.
If Adenauer does not retire this autumn, the constantly growing slide of votes to the SPD will result in a very much changed balance of power after 1965. No doubt the Chancellor's faithful friends hope that the Social Democrat wins would be marginal and that they coold continue to enjoy the sweets of office inside a 'large' coalition, of CDU and SPD. The large coalition would have the results that can be seen in Austria—the two large parties carve up government between them, keeping themselves more or less permanently in power by a silent agreement not to rock the boat too hard. But the transfer of votes has gone up to about 9 per cent in the last local elections. If the SPD theorists, led by Herbert Wehner, have the vision to free themselves from the fear of respon- sibility which has till now made them desire a 'large' coalition, the SPD may win a clear majority, or conclude a coalition with the Free Democrats. This is now a definite possibility. Adenauer, the maker of the CDU, will be the death of it as well if his party colleagues do not take matters firmly into their hands and tell the old Chancellor that his number is up.
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