Chancellor Turnabout
By SARAH CHANCELLOR ADENAUER'S European policy has always been explicitly pro-French and Implicitly anti-British. He wants to appear in history as the man who reconciled the French and the Germans; but he also knows that a peacefully powerful Germany as leader of Europe must have a front and a sponsor. By the nature of his whole policy, that front cannot be Great Britain; other States of Europe are not strong enough to sustain the role; the sponsor, then, must be France. But the Germans were as unpopular with the French and their rulers as anywhere in the world. France, too, was afraid of the Common Market, and set her face stonily against Free Trade. Inside the Market she wanted privileges; outside it, protection. It cost a great deal of wooing, therefore, of the most practical kind for Dr. Adenauer to win over the French, some of it never made public or presented to the Bundestag.
Economics Minister Erhard might undo that wooing. His Europeanism goes much further than the Chancellor's, who still believes in old- fashioned national power-politics, though not in the use of force. Erhard wants to tackle the real problems of getting along with the uneasy British, the suspicious Scandinavians, the non-committal neutrals. He wants to make a Europe that can stand up to the economic pressures of the East; not now, while things are easy, but in the hard uncertain future when an economically frag- mented Europe may make more Red meals than those already gobbled. Internally, he is probably more liberal than the Chancellor's choice, Herr Etzel, both politically and economically. Many of the authoritarians now powerful might be dropped by him, and German society become less disci- plined—which to Adenauer means less safe.
Throughout all the twists and turns of the last six months, beginning with the abortive attempt to shove Erhard upstairs into the power-vacuum of the Presidential chair, and finishing with the announcement that the Chancellor meant to remain where he was, these have been the rational considerations behind Adenauer's efforts to disarm his rival, Erhard. Yet the more Adenauer's actions in the last six months are considered, the less rational they appear. Erhard was to be Presi- dent because that removed him from the chance of power. Then the strong Opposition candidate, Carlo Schmid, was such a threat to Germany that when Erhard refused the honour, Adenauer him- self must become the CDU candidate. This de- cision was partly based on a rosy interpretation of the Constitution by Adenauer's advisers: the Presidency, from being a safe cold-storage for a dangerous rival, was to be as powerful as the French or the American office. But that is not what the Constitution says. Even if the possibility of a ruling Chancellor becoming President was not envisaged, the law is quite clear that all political loyalities and offices must be laid down within
'And over there, your Royal Highness, are the members of the opposition,'
forty-eight hours of the successful candidate accepting his election. This could not apply to a Chancellor who became President, said Adenauer's friends.
The next thing was that Adenauer would pro- pose a new Chancellor, though that is the Presi- dent's prerogative. He would decide matters now and propose his successor officially as soon as he was elected on July 1. But he would not be Presi- dent until September 15. Until then President Heuss is still in office. It didn't matter, that w.1,, how things would be arranged.
Up to then the loud and even rude voices heard making objections had been those of outsiders. But, unbelievably, his own Party now began to defy the old man openly. They did not want Finance-Etzel. They wanted Economics-Erhard, the Wirischaftswundmnann. Nothing would move them, not even threats that Adenauer would with- draw from his presidential candidacy, for nobody believed he could behave like a jealous and hysterical woman.
What has happened to •Adenauer is one of the dangers to men in power. He believes himself indispensable. Until the Party itself came out openly in defiance of his wishes he had blinded himself to the strength of Erhard's popularity, in spite of all the evidence of it. The respect amount- ing to awe accorded the stern Father who always knows best ought to be stronger than affection for a jolly Uncle who turns up at parties and shakes sweetmeats out of his sleeve, motor-cars that really work, tickets to Italy that turn every dreaming shop-assistant into a temporary Goethe. But the affection proved stronger than awe.
Before he left to attend the obsequies of his staunch friend Dulles in Washington, Adenauer had made up his mind that Erhard must be pre- vented from coming to power at any cost. The reason he did not announce his new decision then was that the rival himself was due to travel to America the following week. With Erhard away the focus of rebellion was gone. As soon as Adenauer returned to Bonn he told the Party chiefs of his resolve. A fortnight before the election they must find a new candidate for the Presidency.
Even the reasons Adenauer gives for his turn- about are irrational, for they are the same ones he gave for standing as President; that continuity in foreign affairs is essential in the deteriorated situa- tion with the Russians. 'In the first place the situa- tion, if anything, has improved since the winter : at least war over Berlin is now very unlikely and the Geneva roundabout has not yet changed any thing materially, Moreover, Professor Erhard has never given the slightest reason for a belief that he is not entirely and sincerely Western in all his views and principles. For the sake of the sickly growth of democracy in Germany it is to be hoped that he will challenge the Chancellor and get enough support in the Parliamentary Party to force the old man to resign, but there is very little chance that this will happen. The talk of a vote of no confidence which is going on here, of removing Adenauer from power, is whistling in the dark.
For the Opposition to get the necessary two-thirds majority some of the Christian Democrats would have to vote against the Chancellor, and as things stand such a move is unbelievable.
The tragedy of Germany, now and always, is that there are just as many honourable men here as elsewhere, but they have less influence on public affairs than in any other civilised country. There are deep historical causes for this but the imme- diate reason is always the same : they do not be- lieve anything they do or say will affect the issue. Power is a force like Love, or Faith, which has its own laws, so that anyone mysteriously in Power, as in Love or in a state of Grace, simply is so; and there is nothing to be done but wait.
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