Notebook
From the very first, there was reluctance to adr1t1 that the unknown ex-Governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, could really become the Democratic candidate in this year's Presidential election, no matter what the arithmetic suggested. But following the final primaries in California, Ohio and New Jersey, the arithmetic has become too plain to be ignored. It looks now as if nobody Can deprive him of the nomination. Whatever one may think of Jimmy Carter, and it IS impossible to like his smile, he is greatly Preferable to that other 'hottest thing since Kennedy', Governor Jerry Brown of Cali r ornia. Carter was at least an effective Governor of Georgia, while Brown, during his brief term of office, can find little to boast about apart from a measure to limit the amount of water people may use in flushing their lavatories. Even this major contribution to the conservation of natural resources owes nothing to Brown except for his signature. Now that all the thirty state contests are over, a small prize for persistence ought to be awarded to the liberal representative from Arizona, Morris Udall, Or Ole second place Mo', as he calls him,elf. After his crushing defeat in Ohio, 'dall has had to admit he cannot get the 4:initiation. 'I can only bow to Carter with honour, dignity and good humour,' he said.
There is something curious about an organisation which can never secure for itself the right chairman. Last year the Organisation of African Unity, through lack of finesse, had Field-Marshal Idi Amin Dada foisted I.Iponit. This year through lack of foresight,
could have the Queen.
The forthcoming OAU summit will be held at the beginning of July in Mauritius. Traditionally the head of state of the host country takes on the chairmanship of the °AU for the following year. The chief ,executive in Mauritius is the capable Prime .Minister, Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam, but the head of state is Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth. African diplomats have been SPending anxious moments lately attempt ing resolve a potentially tricky situation. .1,114 have not been eased in their task by he offer of President Amin to stay on in his Post another year. _ The issue is not just a rarefied diplomatic ,°°e. There is currently a heated correspondence on the matter in the Kenyan Sunday Acirf.lon following an article by a local [twan journalist entitled 'Why Queen otlizabeth must be the next head of the Atr. The article stated that Britain's exPerten
et of the African continent would make the Queen ideal for this role. A corres pondent argued that this country was too closely involved with South Africa to be an impartial observer and judge of events there. Perhaps, though, a spell of renewed proconsulship in Africa could revive the flagging fortunes of the British royal family.
Lord Blake's work as chairman of the Hansard Society's commission on electoral reform, which has been sitting since last October and whose report is now out, has delayed the completion of his own book on the history of Rhodesia. This would be no less topical than electoral reform if it were now available, but it is hard to say whether or not Rhodesia itself will have passed into history by the time it appears. In the event of majority rule, would a scholarly account of Rhodesia's history be admitted for sale in Zimbabwe ?
A good test of any ill-judged piece of legislation is whether exemptions are made to its provisions. The Rehabilitation of Offenders Act was entirely well-meant, with the intention of helping former convicts to make a new life. One of its effects, however, seemed to many people gravely misjudged. It has become, for the first time in the history of English law, an offence to tell the truth in certain circumstances. If you are providing a reference for a man seeking a job you cannot mention that he had served a prison sentence if you are writing a certain time after his release (or after his conviction became 'spent', as the Act absurdly expresses it).
One body felt that this inhibition was highly dangerous: the Gaming Board of Great Britain. They, of all people, feel an acute need to know whether persons applying to them for various kind of gaming licenses are of unimpeachable character and, sadly enough, they feel that previous convictions come into the reckoning. They applied for exemption and, under the littlenoticed Rehabilitation of Offenders Act 1974 (Exceptions) Order, they were granted exemption: all previous convictions must still, as before, be declared on applications to the Board.
Of course, the strictest standards of probity are rightly required by the Board. By what logic are they stricter than those which should obtain in other commercial spheres ?
A question of some importance is that of the presidential succession in the Amalgamated Union of Engineering Workers. Mr Hugh Scanlon, the present incumbent, has been much battered by fortune and his own errors. Postal balloting has resulted in an overwhelming right-wing majority on the union's Executive Council. He is precluded, by High Court ruling, from exercising a casting vote on the policy-making National Committee. All of which tends to make him something of a lame duck president for his remaining two years of office.
Mr Scanlon's candidate for the succession was Mr Bob Wright, another left-winger. Mr Wright, however, has proved even more accident-prone than his meutor. He has already lost two important AUEW elections and is trailing badly in a third—which is, perhaps, unfortunate because Mr Wright, whatever his lack of electoral appeal, is a competent official in a union not overendowed with this quality.
Fortunately for AUEW moderates, there is a candidate of presidential calibre handily placed to toss his hat in the ring when the time comes: Mr Gavin Laird. Mr Laird, exCommunist turned moderate, recently and handsomely defeated Mr Jimmy Reid for the Scottish seat on the Executive Council. He is young, forceful, competent and a good speaker. He has just the right amount of time to get his feet under the national table for the electoral log-rolling that will start in a few months.
The high drama of the miners' pay policy ballot is now concluded, in a narrow affirmative vote and the evident relief of Messrs Healey and Gormley. In a way it is unfortunate that the result was announced at much the same time as the Chancellor's news about the $5 billion standby credit.
Although the result was obviously of considerable propaganda importance for the Government and the TUC, it may well be of short-term significance. The shrewd speculator will be concerned at the way miners will be feeling next March when they come to negotiate their next increase. The miners, like most other unions, are extending a promissory note for the twelve months from next August, and that is quite a long time. Last year 60 per cent of the miners supported the £6 limit ; this year only 53 per cent supported 'son of £6'. What the situation will be this winter is difficult to gauge but Mr Scargill has already announced his intention to campaign for the £100 a week miner. It does not look too good.
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