12 JUNE 1982, Page 29

Letter from Argentina

Before the storm

Buenos Aires Atwilight each day Buenos Aires turns opaque and moribund. A grey haze blurs the outlines of the city. It is the begin- ning of winter and porteros (residents of Buenos Aires) are hibernating. Time disap- pears and everything becomes shrouded in shadows and whispers, Behind the walls of the fin de siecle buildings, unfathomable and mysterious things seem to be taking place. It is a romantic or mystery novelist's dream city.

Nevertheless, it is an intimate and stimulating place, in fact one of the most beautiful I've ever seen. From the Congress building, which is of symmetrical and neo- classical design, one can look down the Avenida de Mayo, past the obelisk, and on to the Casa Rosada, the old fort, where the head of government resides. Buenos Aires is criss-crossed by some of the world's broadest and greenest boulevards. The city conveys a Parisian atmosphere, only on a larger scale. The architecture of the capital betrays the porteros' obsession with their European past. Whatever canons happened to be in vogue in Europe until 1930 were ap- propriated by the Argentines. There is gothic and renaissance, baroque and neo- classical. The exclusive Barrio Norte is Neuilly on a grand scale. Needless to say, this makes for an unclaustrophobic, elegant and magnificent city.

It is also a city that thrives on rumours. Political discussion and gossip are as much a part of the porteros' lives as meat is part of their daily diet. Reading the newspapers, which hang from the myriad of kiosks that dot the elegant pedestrian malls and plazas of the city, and then discussing their con- tents with anyone who happens to be stan- ding by, is a unique Argentine phenomenon. Crowds form quickly, lively arguments ensue, but a certain protocol prevails. No one becomes abusive or raises his voice. They are a strange lot, these porteros. Both proud and reserved, Latin but extremely formal, macho but, unlike other Latin Americans, very polite towards women and foreigners.

The war over Las Malvinas, as any well- mannered foreigner should call the Falklands within hearing distance of an Argentine, has united them in a manner never thought possible by Argentine wat- chers. Ironically, despite the fierce na- tionalistic streak that runs deep in them, there are no outward signs of hatred for British nationals. Rich Argentine children still attend English schools, and some of them still play tennis on Her Majesty's Em- bassy's courts. Since my arrival I have made it a point to answer Jngies, whenever I'm asked my nationality. I have yet to detect

a smirk or sign of disapproval. Some shrug and say `Somos todos hombres', 'We are all men'. Others tell me that Mrs That- cher's war is not every English person's responsibility.

While the people wait for the final out- come in Port Stanley, tension has been building about what will happen after the fall. The onus is on the Puerto Argentine (as it's called here) garrison commander, General Mario Benjamin Menendez. He is the one who will have to decide how much blood to spill. It is a delicate decision. If the port falls without the defenders having ac- quitted themselves well, the people will ask for revenge against the military out of frustration and shame. If too many die and the island reverts to Britain, it will all ap- pear to have been for nothing. The crowd might once again demand the heads of the generals. 'Menendez has to do enough but not too much', was the way a military analyst of a foreign power put it to me this week.

Despite the fact that many people see the fall of Port Stanley as a foregone conclu- sion, there is appreciation of the military's ability to fight on equal terms with Britain. `Whatever the outcome of the conflict, Argentina has emerged with honour, digni- ty and the identity we have always been seeking', according to one radio commen- tator. Brave words, but one must wait and see. Bad news can be fuelled by dissident politicians waiting in the wings. And since 1976 there is a plethora of those. Whatever the consequences of the war for Argentina, one thing is certain: Peronism will re- emerge as a key domestic force. This na- tionalistic, cross-class populist movement works as long as the economy generates enough of a financial surplus. When that surplus disappears, which it invariably does (as in 1955 and in 1976), the ones who helped generate that surplus, the businessmen and entrepreneurs, the ones who have attracted foreign capital, demand that the military steps in. The military then changes the economic programmes, de- nationalises industries, until they, too, run into economic trouble. Then the whole ex- ercise is repeated. Inept civilian govern- ments, followed by inept military ones. But even after the debacle of the 1970s, the ap- peal of Peronism remains entrenched among Argentines.

The existence of Peronist nationalism among the younger officers will be an im- portant factor if a civilian government is eventually allowed. Ironically, the revival of Peronism has come because of the Malvinas crisis; just as ironically, it is the good performance of the air force that has made many younger officers sit up and take notice. An Argentine friend with close ties to the military told me that none of the of- ficers thought they could put up a good fight against a superior fighting machine like Britain's. Now that they have done so, they are not about to let some general tell them on a whim where and when they should die. I believe that Galtieri's days are numbered, unless, of course, he manages to hold on to Port Stanley or to inflict enough losses on the British task force to force it back.

Throughout last week the government, the press and television appeared to be preparing the Argentine public for a military defeat in the Falklands. 'We already have won the political victory', said Brigadier General Basilic) Lami Dozo, the taciturn, low-profile and intelligent air force general who has emerged as the hero of the air force. 'Many times people have won the military war but lost the political one.' The statements of doubt over the military outcome represent a change in the campaign of patriotic optimism which the government and the press have been con- ducting since the conflict began. The em- phasis before was on the difficulties that the British invaders would face and on the in- vincibility of the islands' fortifications. The new emphasis is on the superior British forces the garrison is facing, and the im- portance of American assistance. Looking beyond the war of the Falklands is now the favourite guessing game. How long will it take Argentina to replenish her air force and strike at the occupiers? Who will supp- ly the planes and missiles? These are some of the questions, and it is certain that the war will go on once Port Stanley has been taken.

For members of the Fourth Estate, the battle of the Falklands has been a disaster. There are more than 700 of them over here, and the Sheraton Hotel alone houses about 400. After the initial kidnapping of a few, everything has settled down to routine. Unreliable official statements compound the hacks' frustration. It is the first major story in 20 years with which the press has not had direct contact. This, in a way, is how it should be. Running a war for the benefit of the television crews did not exact- ly help the Americans to win in Vietnam. The British, as well as the Argentines, have wisely used the press to spread disinforma- tion to their respective enemies. Take the example of the airstrip in Port Stanley. After the British claimed they had bombed it, the Argentines showed a film with air- craft landing on it. The trouble was that the film had been made earlier. Everyone knew it, including the British. Nevertheless, have it on the highest authority that the Argentines are still landing C130s at Port Stanley. For an airstrip to be put out of ac- tion it needs to be buckled along its length. This is accomplished by bombing the sides of it lengthwise. On the Port Stanley airstrip the sides are peat, and bombs are simply sucked in and they explode without damage. Nevertheless the Argentines did not feel the need to advertise the fact that their planes were still landing and taking off from the airfield.

Whatever happens this week, it is certain that the conflict is far from over. In the meantime I can think of worse places to be covering a war from than Buenos Aires. In fact, next week I shall exclusively reveal the first press casualty of the war and how it came about.