I am making no prediction about the result of the
election myself ; but an article in last week's Economist is worth a refer- ence. Calculations based on Gallup polls are quoted which point to a Conservative majority. The weight to be given to that depends on the weight to be given to Gallup polls generally ; in such a matter as this they have a good record. More interesting, because dealing with concrete figures, is an analysis of by-election results. These show that in the past three years the Conservatives, though they gained no seat, increased their share of the total vote by
6 per cent. "In a General Election," says the writer of the article in question, "if the Conservatives were to succeed in winning 6 per cent. of the 1945 vote away from Labour they would have a 4 per cent. lead in the total vote—which would be quite enough to ensure them a comfortable Parliamentary majority." Well, there it is for what it may be worth. Exactly what it is worth I don't profess to say: but it seems to have more solidity than some speculations.
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