A New Prospect for Arabs
By LORD KINROSS
INTERNATIONAL co-operation in the Middle East 05 enters next week upon a new and important phase. An agency is to be established, with headquarters in Beirut, under the auspices of the United Nations, whose short-term task is to organise relief and work for the Palestine refugees. If, however, it succeeds in this task, the agency should have a profound long-term influence on the economic development, and thus on the peace and stability, of the Arab world. It may prove to be the corner-stone of a con- structive Anglo-Ainerican policy for the Middle East, aimed against Russian imperialism and based on twin foundations—President Truman's Point Four Plan for the development of backward areas and Mr. Bevin's plans, dating from 1945, for the social betterment of the Arabs. It may initiate some equivalent of Marshall Aid for the Middle East, but in a less direct form, and on an inter- national rather than an American basis.
The agency arises from the recommendations of the Economic Survey Mission for the Middle East (the Clapp Mission), appointed by the United Nations to examine the economic situation in the countries affected by the Palestine war. It has a Canadian director, Major-General Howard Kennedy, responsible to the United Nations, and an Advisory Commission, consisting of an American, an Englishman (Sir Henry Knight), a Frenchman and a Turk, respon- sible not to the United Nations but to their own respective Govern- ments. It hopes to have at its disposal a fund of $55 million, of which America is expected to provide half, Britain the next largest share and the Arab States $6 million. It will take over the existing responsibilities for relief to the refugees. It will co- operate closely with the Arab Governments, helping them to provide the refugees with more work and less relief, so that, by the middle of 1951, they need no longer be a charge on the United Nations.
With this object the agency will encourage the Arabs to carry out four pilot works projects, all involving increased irrigation and therefore increased agricultural settlement, all requiring more labour than machinery, all capable of completion, within a few years, at reasonable cost. Two of the projects, the development of the Wadi Zerqa and the Wadi Qilt, are in Jordan and Arab Palestine, which have the largest number of refugees ; one, the investigation of the Litani River basin, is in the Lebanon ; the fourth, the draining of the Ghab marshes, is in Syria. (Egypt and Iraq are not at present included in the scheme, being already engaged on similar projects of their own.) All these are previous projects of the Governments concerned. They were carefully selected by the Clapp Mission, as much from a long-tent' as from an immediate point of view. They should provide, not only work for refugees, but a varied series of practical demonstrations, giving the Arabs just that initial training and experience which they will need for more ambitious schemes of development in the future.
The projects are based on the thesis that these are potentially rich countries, which once supported large populations and can do so again. The wars of the past destroyed them and turned large areas into deserts. The Clapp Report paints a graphic picture of " cisterns silted up, springs filled in and fouled, irrigation works broken down. Yet the land remains, the rain still falls, the rivers flow. If the water be once more saved and spread upon the land, crops will grow again." The objectiVe of the agency is " to help the peoples of the Middle East to help themselves in rebuilding what they have lost and forgotten for a time but can still regain." The emphasis on self-help is a correct one. The Arabs have a chronic suspicion of foreign interference, and particularly, in these days, of " economic imperialism." No Arab Government today could afford, as Turkey has done, to accept American aid, because of its imagined threat of American political control. Such suspicion may extend also to the United Nations, which is blamed for the Palestine debiicle. Syria has already refused international aid for the Ghab project, which she prefers to finance from her own capital resources—on the basis, incidentally, of a survey carried out by a British engineering firm. This, however, meets with the entire approval of the new agency, which has no intention of forcing its aid, financial or otherwise, on the Arab countries, but prefers that they should, as far as possible, finance and carry out their own schemes through national development boards formed for the purpose.
The agency, nevertheless, will have to show great understanding if it is to succeed without offending the political susceptibilities of the Arabs. It cannot, for example, plan for permanent resettlement of refugees, since the Arab Governments do not yet accept the fail accompli of Israel, and maintain that it is the duty of the United Nations to ensure the ultimate return of refugees from Israel to their homes. On the other hand, there is today a disposition among the Arabs to prefer the British, whom they know, to less familiar helpers like the Americans or the United Nations. An Arab Minister remarked to me not long ago: " We need British under- standing and American dollars." Only Britain, by proving her own disinterested intentions, can re-establish Arab confidence in America. And this, in turn, depends on complete mutual confidence between America and Britain.
Their unity, in the eyes of the Arabs, has been shaken by what they regard as the American support for Israel and the consequent failure of British policy. In fact, America has shown signs of a dual policy, the support of President and Press for the Jews being more evident than an equal support, in other quarters, for the Arabs. There are signs that this duality is being to some extent resolved, that American policy is beginning to move, in step with British policy, towards a settlement in the Arab world. American oil interests are shifting from the Persian Gulf westwards, with the construction of a pipe-line to the Mediterranean seaboard in the Lebanon. American strategic interests are growing more concerned with the security of the Arab countries as a second line of defence to American-aided Turkey and Persia. Liaison between the Foreign Office and the State Department, with regard to the establishment of the new agency, has been close and cordial. America, as much as Britain, wishes to see a prosperous and stable Arab world. But it still remains to convince the Arabs of this fact.
On the technical level Anglo-American co-operation is likely to be well balanced. In the agricultural field the agency will pre- sumably draw on the services of Mr. Bevin's British Middle East Office, which has carried out expert surveys throughout the area and has already assisted the Arab Governments with valuable advice. In the engineering field, involving the construction of dams and waterworks, it may rely, to a greater extent, on American experience. Indeed, its American representative, Mr. John B. Blandford, who comes to the agency from the E.C.A. mission in Greece, was formerly a senior official of the Tennessee Valley Authority. In other fields Trench North African experience and Turkish knowledge of similar conditions at home will doubtless prove valuable, while the agency is empowered to co-opt additional members if required. In time, moreover, it should have the benefit of the American technicians, equipment and facilities for training to be provided by the funds of President Truman's Point Four organisation.
Thus a new phase of international, and especially of Anglo- American, co-operation now awaits the Arab world. The advice, aid and influence of the agency should help to overcome some of the obstacles which have hitherto hampered economic develop- ment. Arab capital may gradually be induced to invest in long- range national projects. Arab Governments, already beginning to think in social and economic terms, may start to acquire a wider experience of planning, research and administration. Arab youth, already thinking in similar terms, may set the seal on its western education with practical technical experience. Increased efficiency may lead to a higher standard of living, and therefore of security, in the Arab countries.
But the work of the agency can only be a tentative step towards the solution of the fundamental problem in the Middle East. No economic development on a major scale can be achieved until local political differences are solved. This, in turn, can only be achieved by a positive, far-sighted and, above all, united political lead from Britain and America. There are signs that this is beginning to develop.
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