14 APRIL 2001, Page 45

The turf

Terrible test

Robin Oakley

In its way it was magnificent. But was this year's Grand National racing? John Maxse, the Jockey Club's level-headed spokesman admitted it was 'fairly shocking, uncomfortable viewing'. Even Richard Guest, rider of the courageous winner Red Marauder, came back saying, 'I am not sure we should have been out there.' Mark Twain once wrote that one should never make predictions, especially about the future, and I am sure he would have had something pretty pithy to say about columnists who pass judgments with the benefit of hindsight. But races won by a distance are not a great sporting spectacle and it did not do much good to the image of racing to have only seven horses set out on the second circuit and only two jump round the whole course without a fall. Experienced jockeys were saying before the race that only a handful would finish and the National, the only race run over four and a half miles, is an endurance test in the best of conditions. Of course there was an element of bad luck. The riderless Paddy's Return caused chaos as he ran down the Canal Turn fence, taking out this column's selection Moral Support in the process. But running in atrocious conditions means more fallers and the greater possibility of loose horses doing just that.

All that said, had I been on the racecourse executive, I would have had to vote to race. There had been few casualties over the previous two days, the jockeys were not saying that racing was dangerous, and after a dire winter of canceptions racing was in need of the lift from one of its biggest occasions. What I would not have favoured

was the unctuous statement from the executive afterwards: 'We are in no doubt that the race should have taken place and we are of course very pleased that there were no significant equine or jockey injuries. The main problem was caused by loose horses, not by horses falling.' They may have taken the right decision but they should have been in some doubt about it. They were lucky. As for the problems, what are loose horses but horses which have fallen? Attention will now focus more sharply on the flat.

I make a tradition of putting by my Timeform annual, this year of course the Racehorses of 2000 (Partway Press, .E68, tel: 01422 330330), until the day after the National when I start combing through those wonderfully pithy descriptions of the no-hopers and elegant essays on the equine stars. The name suggests that House of Dreams, for example, was once the apple of somebody's eye. Timeform's verdict is 'Small gelding. Has stringhalt. Very poor mover: modest on turf, poor on all-weather

. not at best on fibresand.' All the more credit then to Mary Reveley for winning a seller with him last year. What I look for are comments like this one on Henry Cecil's La Passione: '17: lengths second to Zilch in maiden at Doncaster, staying on well without being unduly knocked about having missed break and run green. Will probably stay one mile: sure to improve and win races.' Checking one or two I had in the notebook from last year I find that Mick Channon's Murrendi is rated as a 'fairly useful maiden' and consistent while Peter Makin's Pomfret Lad is described as a tall, good-topped colt with plenty of scope. Timeform calls him a 'most likeable type . . should make a smart sprinter'.

Three of my winter Ten To Follow sadly failed to appear before a starter and the seven others have so far mustered just eight wins between them. But in the hope that they will at least evade the Curse of Oakley to the extent of making it to the course here goes with my summer Ten. For the opening Classics my main hopes are John Gosden's Nureyev filly Crystal Music and Marcus Tregoning's Nayef, There have been happy noises out of Manton about Crystal Music, for whom the Lloyd Webbers turned down a hefty offer from Godolphin. Nayef, the top-rated two-year-old last season, looked majestic in his second race at Ascot, after which Richard Hills declared: 'The feel he gave me was the best I have ever had from any horse.'

I am a sucker for good sprinters and I was pleased to learn from Racehorses that the French authorities have relented and will allow geldings like Nuclear Debate into their top sprint the Prix de l'Abbaye this year. (Who else but Timeform would begin their essay on Nuclear Debate: 'Jonathan Swift's perceptive comments about what humans are likely to see on looking back at the end of their life — "a bundle of inconsistencies and contradictions" — could apply to the French authorities . . . ') On the strength of a Newmarket run last year John Dunlop's Vision of Night could give us some fun in real speed tests. So should Henry Candy's Kyllachy. My favourite among the older horses is Kalanisi, a deserved Breeders Cup winner after twice going down to Giant's Causeway in photofinishes last year.

Nobody produces the old horses in better condition than Michael Stoute and though the prices are unlikely to be exciting I shall follow Kalanisi for the sheer fun of it. Barry Hills's Distant Music disappointed in last year's 2000 Guineas but should earn his way this year. So will Katy Nowaitee, a top handicapper for one of Peter Harris's successful syndicates. She may have needed plenty of physiotherapy in between but you cannot quarrel with her victories in the Spring Mile and the Cambridgeshire. You must include a Godolphin horse and Tobougg, bought out of Mick Channon's stable, will make his presence felt among the three-year-olds. So, I believe will John Gosden's Endless Summer at a mile. Finally I look for a significant contribution this season from the shrewd Luca Cumani. There are some lightly raced three-yearolds of real promise at Bedford House Stables but I will take the four-year-old Isadora to add some significant successes. Let's hope none of them ever has to run in an Aintree bog.