Positively Last Appearance
From SARAH GAINHAM
BONN
CHANCELLOR ADENAUER has, almost unbe- lievably, agreed to retire, and implicitly, by the inclusion of Economics Minister Erhard among those re-forming the Cabinet coalition with the Free Democrats, has agreed that Erhard be recognised as the future Chan- cellor. Only the agreed date gives rise to doubt; why after the long recess and not at the end of this parliamentary year? Nobody who knows Adenauer's tactics can doubt that Der Alle has left himself a last outlet for changing his mind when the time comes.
The government crisis was over six weeks old and looked like going on into the New Year. It ended with extraordinary suddenness, the manteuvring broke off and all was calm, from one evening to the next morning. What hap- pened?
Adenauer had been forced by public uproar and the determination of the Free Democrats that they would not sit down again with Strauss— literally, since they refused to eat luncheon with him at the Chancellor's invitation—to get rid of his scandalous Defence Minister. He had already dropped Strauss's defence policy on his last visit to Washington, so the parting might have come soon in any case. But it was forced on Adenauer by outside pressure, and his be- wilderment was obvious at his new inability to 'manage' his colleagues and the public.
At one moment it looked as if Strauss might succeed in pulling down the old Chancellor with him. To pay the FDP out for its intransigence, to remain in office and to gain time for manoeuvre, Adenauer listened to the advice of Housing Minister Luecke and others, including the opportunist Socialist Herbert Wehner. He took up their private conversations on the sub- ject of a grand coalition with the SPD. Among the advantages of a coalition of this nature would be the chance to put through an elec- toral reform (requiring a two-thirds majority) from modified proportional representation as now to direct simple voting as in Britain and the US; this would stabilise the two-party system; as a move well advertised it also frightened the FDP, a small party. Further, a truce inside Parliament until the next elections, which meant his own further tenure of office in the teeth of the opposition inside his own party. Further, the reduction in moral standing of the big opposition party by seducing them from their opposition with the chance of power and bourgeois respectability under his wing. Whether Adenauer ever took seriously the idea of even a short grand coalition until the next election is more than doubtful. But the leaders of the SPD did, after stating publicly many times that they would not be used as a lever against the Free Democrats to force Mende's com- plaisance. They had also said often they would not serve under Adenauer. The abject capitula- tion of the Social Democrat leaders will probably lead to some rearrangements inside the SPD.
After first talks, with more planned, Adenauer took exception to a German Press Agency report of the SPD spokesman's analysis of his party's attitude, which turned out to be side remarks off the record and had to be quickly withdrawn, after it had enabled the Chancellor
to show public annoyance. The occurrence, not to use the word device, was curiously reminiscent of the occasion a week or so ago when Adenauer was hard-pressed in the House over the Spiegel affair, and the same news agency issued a message that an FDP leader and an SPD leader (both enemies of Strauss and Adenauer) were suspected of treasonable dealings; it had to be withdrawn at once, and did not help the Chan- cellor's position; not because his hand had lost its cunning but because times have changed. Now, having said the SPD had made further talks unlikely, Adenauer took up the negotia- tions with the Free Democrats again where he had left them; the SPD incredibly said they were still interested in a grand coalition.
The scene over the SPD spokesman was on Wednesday evening; Thursday's meeting with the SPD was put off; and it was known that the FDP had an appointment for Friday. But on Friday morning early the Christian Democrat parliamentary party were called together for nine o'clock, quite unexpectedly, and were told that a grand coalition had been dropped, that Adenauer had 'freely' decided to retire in October, 1963, and that the new Cabinet with the FDP would be so constituted that a further reshuffle then would not be needed. There was applause only when it was announced that Professor Erhard would take part in the form- ing of the new Cabinet.
The only fresh factor in the situation which might, on past form, have continued its pendu- lum for another six weeks, was the return of the Federal President from an exhausting and successful tour of India and points east on Wednesday night. On Thursday he sent for the leader of the CDU in the House. After that he sent for 011enhauer of the SPD. Then the Chan- cellor. It was by then late on Thursday. On Friday the decisions were all ready and formu- lated, so they must have been made on Thurs- day. The inescapable conclusion is that the President put his foot down, The Constitution does not allow a President to sack a Chancellor or a government; that is reserved to the Bundes- tag by means of a vote of no confidence. It may, of course, have been coincidence, but the most stolidly conservative newspaper in Germany, the Frankfurter Allgetneine, suggested in its Friday issue almost in so many words that the President should put this idea to the opposition parties. It seems to have been one jump behind the President, who had had time to think on the long plane-ride home.
Neither Berlin nor Brussels had influenced the party boys in their power games. It is not true of all the Bonn politicians, and it may be that the voters will remember the short list of men who look bigger than they did six weeks ago, and not smaller.
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