14 JANUARY 1938, Page 14

Commonwealth and Foreign

THE RUMANIAN EXPERIMENT

FROM A SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

Bucharest.

A CLOSE parallel exists between the present development in Rumania and that in Germany in 1932—which brought Herr Hitler to power.

In 1932 it was clear that President von Hindenburg could not live much longer and that Hitler would be elected to succeed him unless this could somehow be forethwarted. The problem for the traditional ruling classes in Germany was to destroy the liberal republic and gain power for themselves before it was too late. The aged President dismissed his Chancellor Bruning, who had never been defeated in Parliament, and appointed Herr von Papen to save Germany from Hitler and for reaction. The result of the experiment is known.

The result of the Rumanian elections in December resembled the German elections of 193o, when Hitler with his six million votes and over too deputies first burst on an apprehensive world. At the Rumanian elections the Fascist and violently anti-Semitic Iron Guard of Corneliu Codreanu polled a very large vote and returned, like the Nazis in 193o, the third largest party. The less extreme, but pro-German, pro-Italian and moderately anti-Semitic National Christian Party of Octavian Goga gained a handful of seats. The King appointed Goga Prime Minister to steal the Iron Guard's thunder, to wear down the Iron Guard, by a moderate policy of " Rumania for the Rumanians," " Restrict the influence of the Jews," and " Make friends with Germany and Italy."

Herr von Papen was worn down by Hitler instead of wearing Hitler down ; the Reichstag fire completed his discomfiture and left Hitler supreme. There seem to be two good reasons why events in Rumania should not follow the same course. First, the real motive power of National Socialism, from which it derived its tremendous force, was not anti-Semitism but the growing belief among Germans, as they almost incredulously realised the indecision of Germany's former enemies, that Germany had not after all lost the World War and might yet, as Hitler promised, stage a come-back. This motive is absent in Rumania. The second reason is King Carol, who holds all the trump cards. If the Goga experiment breaks down and a full Rumanian dictatorship follows, he will presumably be the dictator. He is young and astute, the army seems devoted to him, and it is difficult to imagine him playing the part of King Victor Emanuel to Corneliu Codreanu's Mussolini.

These are the points of resemblance and dissimilarity between Germany 1932 and Rumania 1938. One further point of re- semblance is of interest. The rise of the Iron Guard in Rumania was helped, just like that of the Nazis in Germany, by the leniency of the Governments in power to Fascist gunmen who murdered their ministers. A few years ago the Iron Guard murdered Duca, a Liberal Prime Minister. Although the Liberal Party continued in power for several years it never really sup- pressed the Iron Guard, and 5o of the 53 accused of that crime, which was ordered by the Iron Guard executive, were acquitted.

The protection which the Iron Guard at that time enjoyed in high quarters is a mysterious feature.

Thus M. Goga's task is mainly this domestic one of stemming the rise of the Iron Guard by giving the country moderate doses of what the Iron Guard would like to administer without stint. M. Goga's first measures have been received with a' chorus of hostile criticism from Jewish and other newspapers abroad as anti-Semitic, 'as heralding an era of oppression of " a defenceless minority."

This is an exaggeration, and La Rochefoucauld ruled that " that which is cxaggerated is not true." Throughout the Danubian countries, the Jews, though returned in official statistics as comprising insignificant percentages of the popula- tions, have since the War acquired controlling positions out of all proportion to their strength in many industries, businesses and professions. No other minority in the world could ever

hope to attain such predominance ; Governments would immediately turn on them.

Nevertheless there is hardly anywhere any active anti- Semitism. There is, inevitably, a growing public demand that the Jewish share should be restricted, that the Jews should not be, as they now are in most Danubian countries, a favoured class entitled to greater prosperity and a better standard of living than any other single class of the community.

Anti-Semitism in Rumania has as yet been dangerous chiefly to Gentiles. Duca, the Police Chief of Jassy, and others murdered by the Iron Guard were killed because they were not anti-Semitic enough. M. Goga's measures to restrict Jewish influence are as yet confined to two. He has suppressed several newspapers, a rather drastic action. He has withdrawn their free railway-passes from 120 Jewish journalists. Those who know the Balkans will realise that all is not well when so large a number of men of one faith in one profession have the right to travel free anywhere they like in the country.

In putting Some check on the further immoderate expansion of Jewish influence King Carol is complying with a public feeling that might take the form of real anti-Semitism if some- thing were not done now. His friendship with Madame Lupescu is a pledge for his own freedom from anti-Semitic feeling.

It would, indeed, not be surprising if M. Goga, like certain prototypes in other countries whose real character is mis- understood by an outside world constantly deafened by protests against anti-Semitism, proved to be more dangerous to Rumanian workmen than to Rumanian Jews. The bombs and artillery of the anti-Semitic Hitlerist Reich were in Spain used for the first time against Catholic workers, peasant folk, fishei folk— not against Jews. M. Goga, as Minister of the Interior in 1927, sent troops to suppress with sanguinary efficiency a coal- miners strike at Lupeni. His present Minister of the Interior, M. Calinescu, in 1932 suppressed with equally ruthless efficiency, and much loss of life, the railway strike at Grivitza.

In foreign policy, which King Carol personally controls, M. Goga will not have a long rein. Nevertheless his appoint- ment, as the man who was told by Hitler that Germany would not support Hungarian territorial ambitions against Rumania, and in consequence warmly advocated friendship with Germany and Italy, means that Rumania, too, has partly fallen under the spell of the quick-on-the-draw martial dictatorships. King Carol has hastened to reassure Prague and Paris by sending his new Foreign Minister, Micescu, forthwith on a visit to the Little Entente capitals, Prague first. But M.' Goga rather spoiled the effect of this by stating, in a Belgrade newspaper, that he would " co-ordinate his policy with that of M. Stoyadinovitch, so beneficial to Yugoslavia." M. Stoyadinovitch's artless policy of " friends all round " is strongly suspect in Prague and Paris, where it is felt not to be so blandly disingenuous as it appears.

As long as the great democracies continue to appear irresolute and ineffective the small States, one after the other, will inevit- ably tend to gravitate towards the orbit of the martial dictator- ships.

King Carol's move, however, seems to put Germany and Italy* in something of a quandary. As long as both M. Goga and M. Codreanu were in opposition, the parent-powers of Fascism supported both alike—with moral backing, counsel and material help. Now they find themselves in some .difficulty. The Iron Guard, as the stronger and better organised force, and the one more completely under their influence, appeals to them more. But M. Codreanu will need to be very skilful in his tactics, and to be very well advised, if in the coming struggle he is to outwit M. Goga, press King Carol into a corner, and emerge, as did Hitler and Mussolini in Germany and Italy, the real ruler of Rumania.