Prophesying war

Dhiren Bhagat

Bombay Vifteen minutes after the Indian Airlines airbus IC 405 took off from Srinagar for Delhi last Thursday the plane was hi- jacked. Shots rang out near the cockpit and a group of Sikhs rose from their seats and began shouting: 'Khalistan zindabad, kutti Indira murdabad, Pakistan zindabad, Hin- dustan murdabad.' ('Long live Khalistan, down with the bitch Indira, long live Pakistan, down with India.') But the slogans alone could not contain the hi- jackers' enthusiasm. A boy drinking a glass of fruit juice when the chanting began had his imbibing rudely interrupted. A tall bearded Sikh knocked the white plastic glass from the boy's hands and slapped him repeatedly. 'You Hindu son of a bitch,' the hijacker screamed, 'how dare you drink fruit juice while the Sikh revolution is on?' Twenty hours later, after more beating and many more slogans, the nine hijackers surrendered in Lahore, to which they had diverted the plane. All they had with them were two revolvers, five knives, a pipegun and two axes they had obtained from the cockpit. The Pakistani authorities behaved impeccably throughout, co-operating with the Indians at every stage and finally laying on a PIA aircraft to take back the 255 passengers. Indeed, so smooth was the operation thay many in India believe it was a put-up job, designed to improve Pakistan's image and to help the nine Sikhs escape to Pakistan.

This is the third Indian aircraft hijacked to Pakistan: each time India has, in vain, demanded that the hijackers be handed over to her. But whether or not the hi- jackers were in league with Pakistan they have certainly played straight into Mrs Gan- dhi's hands.

Ever since the storming of the Golden Temple a month ago Mrs Gandhi has been keen to establish two things, firstly that a foreign hand was present in the Punjab, do- ing mischief all the while (General Zia and the CIA), and secondly that Farooq Ab- dullah's National Conference government in the state of Kashmir had been colluding with Sikh extremists in 'anti-national ac- tivities'. And it is difficult to imagine a more pat vindication of these two conten- tions than a hijacking by Sikh extremists from Srinagar to Lahore. Wasn't security at Srinagar Airport 'anti-national' when it allowed the two revolvers and five knives to Pass its screens? And as for Pakistan, if they don't hand over the hijackers, well, what more proof can you want?

Two of the bodies found in the Golden Temple after the storming were circumcis- ed. The Indian government promptly claim- ed that it had found two Pakistanis, only to

be rebuked by an editorial in the Indian Ex- press which pointed out (quite correctly) that it was not unknown for Indians to have the operation performed and that several smugglers are routinely circumcised to guard against the dangers of being caught without papers in Islamic Pakistan. When the government claimed to have found Pakistani passports in the Temple General Zia asked to see them and that was the last we heard of the passports. (Do spies and agents provocateurs carry on their person passports of their country of origin?) Several newspapers have of late taken to publishing maps of alleged sites of CIA- sponsored training camps for Sikh ex- tremists in Pakistan. The Government claims to have found out about these camps while interrogating terrorists, but so far we have only the government's word for it.

But though India has still to produce proof to support its accusations, it is unlikely that Pakistan is wholly innocent. True, the arms with Pakistani markings could, as Zia claims, have been acquired from gun-runners who operate between the two countries. (1 am told three bottles of whisky in dry Pakistan fetch one revolver.) Pakistan's attitude has not been unimpeachable. Pakistani TV coverage of the army action cannot be described as disinterested, and on 26 June the defence minister of Pakistan, addressing a Lahore audience, was critical of the army action, reportedly using words such as 'tyranny' and 'massacre' to describe 'the tragic inci- dent'. These remarks were in sharp contrast to his diplomatically neutral official stand: 'It is India's internal affair.'

Accusing Pakistan is fairly safe, but the same cannot be said of Kashmir. Editorial writers are fond of describing the state as 'I understand Nigerian airways fly some pretty interesting crates.' 'volatile' and there is much justice in what they say. After the complications with Sheikh Abdullah, Congress had left the state alone, pampering it with concessions but never contesting an election there. Last year Mrs Gandhi changed all that in a highly-charged election 'campaign for the state assembly. Though her party did well in Jammu, in Kashmir she lost to Farooq Ab- dullah's National Conference. Ever since then Mrs Gandhi has contemplated toppl- ing his government.

On July she struck. In a very dangerous move designed to destabilise the state for years on end Mrs Gandhi toppled Farooq's -government by creating a split within his party and promising to back his brother-in- law, G. M. Shah, who came over to her side with 12 members of the Legislative Assembly. Within hours Shah was ap- pointed chief minister and each of his men sworn in as ministers. Farooq is a genuinely popular man and is arguably the only leader of the Muslims in the country. He has sworn to 'fight like a tiger' and will almost certainly resign from the Legislative Assembly and his colleagues en masse, fur- ther alienating Kashmiris and other Muslims from both Congress and the coun- try. So what is Mrs Gandhi up to?

Even Mrs Gandhi's admirers admit they are baffled. All they can do is to reiterate their faith that she must know what grave risks she is taking and that therefore she must have good reasons for doing as she as done. In other words, she must have definite proof that Farooq's government had been encouraging 'anti-nationals', con- ducting training camps for Sikh extremists in Kashmir.

But there is another way of understan- ding Mrs Gandhi's moves. The general elec- tion is around the corner. Traditionally in North India Mrs Gandhi goes for the minority vote, the Muslims, the Sikhs and the Harijans. But last year's Assembly elec- tions left her convinced that the South is lost to her. So she has been cultivating the caste Hindu vote in the North, edging out the traditional Hindu Party, the BJP. First she did this in the local elections in Madhya Pradesh, then in Jammu. The Punjab ac- tion has won her each one of the state's 48 per cent of Hindu votes. But the Punjab has only 14 seats in Parliament. The question is: how many Hindu votes has the army action won her in the union's most populous states, Bihar and the UP? Mrs Gandhi is not sure.

Now she needs to give the Hindus a big- ger scare. Toppling Farooq was part of that strategy of giving the Hindus a scare but has it done the trick? Crudely put, the message is: see, I.told you the Sikhs and the Muslims are both 'anti-national'. But if this doesn't work, what next?

Many feel her only option left is a limited war with Pakistan, a three or four day af- fair, started while 'chasing back terrorists to their camps in Pakistan'. The consequent hysteria will take care of the election.

But it would be an ill-advised risk. And the army will probably warn her against it. In the past two wars with Pakistan Punjabi (mostly Sikh) villagers have gone to the fields and fed our troops rotis and lassis. No such help will be forthcoming this time, Instead, as several Sikhs in the border districts warned me, there is a distinct chance of sabotage, both of communica- tion lines and supply lines. Such a war would be a disaster.

Without doubt India is passing through her most dangerous days since partition. Until a week ago the army was out in Bom- bay's suburbs. The agitation in Assam has

begun to revive. Two sensitive border states, Punjab and Kashmir, are under curfew, and things in both states are only going to get worse. What next? I don't know what Rajiv Gandhi's rating as an astrologer is but there is not comfort in his soothsaying. Readers of the Financial Times will recall an interview with the In- dian Prince of Wales in early February in which, among other things, he 'predicted' a war with Pakistan before the year was out. Now is the time to worry, for the writing is on the pink pages.