THE HORIZON.
THE situation in foreign politics is in many respects most singular. So certain are financiers and the investing public that peace will be undisturbed, that the prices of all State Stocks are rising, that a large conversion of Russian Bonds is in preparation, and that British Consols, the teat barometer of European credit, would, but for the dread of a conversion, pass 105. They are above 108 already. Trade is decidedly reviving, and the movement of money, indicated by Clearing House and other returns, is becoming rapid and continuous. Nevertheless, the signs of preparation for war do not slacken. The Russians are still arming ; the Turks, with their exhausted Treasury, are purchasing guns every- where ; and the Austrian cavalry, the finest mounted force in the world, is being steadily drawn towards the North-East frontier. So uneasy is opinion in Pesth and Vienna, that every rumour from Afghanistan is commented on with eager- ness, the hope, latent or avowed, being, that if Afghanistan falls to pieces, England and Russia must come immediately to blows, and thus release Austria from any fear of the Russian attack which the Panslaviste so ardently desire. At the same time, the Bulgarian difficulty, which is accepted as a sort of pivot around which the Powers can quarrel or negotiate, is growing acute, for the people are weary of incertitude, and the Regents both humiliated and embarrassed by their inability to raise even a trumpery loan without usurious interest. It is quite possible that Bulgaria may by mid-June declare itself an inde- pendent State, elect a King, and risk all consequences. Nor is the outlook in the West much better. It is easy to say that Germany is hyper-sensitive ; but any State whatever, if its frontiers marched with those of France, would be made uneasy by General Boulanger's new Mobilisation Bill. The French War Office asks the Chambers for £200,000, in order that it may " mobilise " two of its twelve Army Corps within the next few weeks. The soldiers belonging to those corps and their reserves are to turn out equipped for actual war, with their transport, commissariat, and fighting materiel all in com- plete order. The districts they occupy are to be placed under requisition, the railway-stations are to be garrisoned, and all means of communication are to be subject to orders from the Generals in command. Nothing whatever is to be omitted which would be required if war were declared, the convenience of traders, and of civil life generally, being entirely disregarded. The Bill indicates, of course, a conviction that the time for final preparations is at hand, and even if it affected only two Army Corps, it would be ominous ; but there is no such reservation. Only two corps will be mobilised, but which two is a secret to be jealously locked in the General's own breast until the order has been actually gazetted. In consequence, every corps must be prepared for mobilisation, and, owing to the rivalry of Generals, each of whom hopes to be foremost in the public eye, the whole Army will be brought into a con- dition in which a fortnight would suffice to throw it across the frontier. It is simply impossible for a neighbouring Power to regard such a movement with indifference. Italy, for instance, is by no means delighted at the possibility of 80,000 men, all in complete readiness, being encamped along the easiest routes for a descent on Piedmont. It is, above all, impossible for Germany to be quiet while perfectly aware that the French people would fight if they only could. The strain between the countries grows every day more intense. The Germane are every week giving new provocations in Lorraine, where French "sympathisers" are now regarded as enemies ; while the French retort by boycotting Germans, the Prefect of the Department of the Meurthe having summarily closed a great manufactory of tricycles, nominally because the pro- prietor had not received the legal " authorisation " from the police—he had been at work for three years—really because he employed German handicraftsmen. The German bands which wander about at faire are compelled to pack up their instruments ; and every one strolling with a sketch-book is taken for a German spy, and arrested by the police, some- times, it must be added, with a good-natured desire to protect him from Lynch-law. Moreover, this irritated condition of the French mind tends to increase, or rather to become more manifest, for the population of the cities, as was shown by the incidents that led to the withdrawal of Lohengrin, is ceasing to fear war. It has recovered confidence in the Army, it believes in General Boulanger, and it gives its ill-humour full vent without regarding consequences. It is the renewed self- confidence of Frenchmen that Germans dread, and if, as that self-confidence mounts, the Ministry is overthrown, but General Boulanger left standing, they will see in all that occurs a distinct menace to their security. That will not of itself produce war, for in Germany orders are left to the Emperor ; but it will produce a state of expectation amidst which the smallest accident, such as a frontier scuffle, or a mob insult to the German Ambassador, may set fire to the com- bustibles. Except in the fear of war secretly entertained by the mass of Frenchmen, we do not see where the guarantee for peace is ; and if that fear is departing, the barriers are growing very thin.
The capitalists are all against us, and they have every interest in knowing the truth ; but they have made grand mistakes before now, and may be making one again. Indeed, with money so cheap all over Europe, their action almost ceases to be a guide, for it ceases to be voluntary. They must do something with their balances, and what can they do except force up the price of the securities most readily convertible into cash ?
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