T.1±.0 GERMAN AGRARIANS.
IT would be easier to predict the fate of the German Tariff Bill if we could be sure that the Government and the Agrarians are not playing a game of bluff. If we listen to the Imperial Chancellor on the one hand, and the Agrarian League on the other, there seems no possibility of compromise; each party knows its own mind, and neither is inclined to change it. It is pretty certain, however, that the Chancellor does not mean quite all that he says, and it is possible that the other will be found equally willing in the end to take less than it asks. Count von Billow's position is certainly not one to be envied. His foreign policy is gravely compromised if he listens to the Agrarians ; his home policy may receive a very severe shock if he quarrels with them ; and he has to manage this complicated. situation so as to satisfy a very imperious master. Naturally he is profuse in his protestations that he and the Emperor take identical views of the rival interests which the Tariff Bill seeks to harmonise. This was the substance of a large part of his speech at the dinner of the German Council of Agriculture. He would not hear of there being any difference of opinion between them on the subject of agriculture. They were both anxious to consult its interests in the fullest possible way. But then the Emperor's subjects are not all agriculturists. They consume as well as produce, and_ unfortunately the interests of agriculture as read by German agriculturists demand that the, consumption of the nation should be limited to home-grown produce, except in the case of food. which cannot be grown in Germany. Here the Govern- ment and the Agrarians must perforce part company. However devoted the Emperor and the Chancellor may be to the Agrarian party, Count von Billow hinted pretty plainly last week that they had gone as far in the direction of Protection as it is possible for them to go. The Federal Governments had considered the demands of the Agrarians with every desire to concede them ; but they had to re- member that there are other German interests which are not agrarian, and that these have in their degree the same claim on the Government that the Agrarians have. The Tariff Bill is the resultant of these conflicting considerations. So far as sympathy goes, the Federal Governments are on the side of the Agrarians. But " in politics things are not done out of sheer benevolence." The Emperor's Government has to be carried on, and it cannot be carried on by consulting one German interest and sacrificing every other. Count von Billow reminded the Agrarians that there is a point beyond which duties cannot be raised without their becoming burdensome to the rest of the population and tying the hands of the Government in the conclusion of commercial treaties. At this point, however, it seems to have occurred to him that neither of these arguments was likely to have much weight with his hearers. The Agrarian theory, when it troubles itself to consider the rest of the population at all, is that nothing can benefit it so much as the prosperity of agriculture. When that is going well all other industries must go well, since they will find abundant occupation in providing for the wants of the agriculturists: Accordingly, Count von Bfilow fell back on a safer argument. Let us grant, he said in effect, that the Agrarian party are absolutely indifferent both to the welfare of every other German interest and to any advantages which German industry can derive from commercial treaties ; there still remains a reason why they should not push their claims' too far. There is such a thing as reaction, and if the duty on corn is fixed too high, it is quite possible that under the influ- ence of a reaction the legitimate interests of agriculture may be no longer considered. At first this warning might be taken to point to the possible acceptance by the Emperor of a Free-trade policy, but the Chancellor's next sentence shows that nothing so terrible as this was in his mind. By the legitimate interests of agriculture ceasing to be considered he only means the Corn-duties remaining what they are now. The Tariff Bill represents the maximum advance towards the further protection of agriculture that the German people will stand. If more than this is imported into the Bill the strain will be too great, the Bill will be defeated or withdrawn, and then the Agrarians will have to reconcile themselves to the state of things from which the Federal Governments have tried to rescue them. They may secure, if they are prudent, the modest increase of duty which the Tariff Bill gives them, but they can get nothing beyond this, and if they try to get more by amending the Bill they will not get even this.
What effect will this warning have upon the Agrarian party ? Considerable importance seems to be attached to Count von Billow's speech, and the more so because there was no need for him to attend the agricultural dinner, or to make it the occasion for a political speech. He went there of his own ascord, and he evidently went with the intention of improving the occasion. It is difficult to believe that the Agrarians will be prepared. to see the Bill shipwrecked rather than accept the very substantial benefits. it confers on them. But they think that the Chancellor is not serious when he tells them that this will be the con- sequence of their persistence. As we began by saying, each party may believe that the other is not in earnest, and m this way things may come to a point to which neither is really anxious to push them. Will Count von Billow really quarrel with the Agrarians if he has to choose between this and quarrelling with commercial and manufacturing Germany ? Will the Agrarians really lose all that the Tariff Bill in its present form gives them rather than forego their extreme demands ? These are the questions which exercise whatever interest in Parliamentary affairs is to be found in Germany, and no very positive answer can be returned to them. According to the Berlin correspondent of the Times, the Protectionist Press is still hopeful that under persistent pressure the Government may at least consent that the minimum duty of 55 marks per ton which the Bill proposes to levy on wheat shall be raised to 60 marks. Some of the Agrarians, no doubt, will go on demanding more, but it is hoped that the 60 marks duty will be accepted as a fair compromise. The addition of one-twelfth to the proposed duty will, it is thought, be too slight a change to affect the fortunes of a measure of this importance. It is a dangerous situation, because when two parties are trying to ascertain the plia- bility of the other the experiment may break down at any moment. It is even difficult to determine how a real friend of Germany should wish the conflict to end. On the whole, if Count von Billow's declaration was genuine, as we are inclined to think it was, there is most to be hoped from Agrarian persistence. The fact that the Agrarians would like to make the Tariff Bill very much worse than it is does not make the Bill a good one, and if their extravagance leads to its defeat they may really be doing Germany an unintended service.
The proceedings of the Annual Congress of the Agrarian League, which met at Berlin on Monday, have naturally been searched for some indication of Agrarian policy. So far as words go, the fate of the Tariff Bill is already sealed. Dr. ROsicke, who opened the discussion, spoke of Count von Billow in a tone of contemptuous hostility, and Dr. Hahn said that his policy was indistinguishable from that of Count von Caprivi, who had been the avowed enemy of the League and its demands. A resolution, passed by a unanimous vote, gave practical expression to these views. The Agrarian League, it declared, cares nothing about commercial treaties, though it is willing to co-operate in promoting them for the benefit of other industries than its own. But it can only do this upon conditions, and the value of this disinterested offer is somewhat lessened by the fact that these conditions would probably make the conclusion of such treaties impossible. The German Government would enter upon the negotia- tion empty-handed. It would have nothing to offer, and consequently nothing to hope for. The Agrarian League withdraws none of its demands. In the interests of agri- culture it insists on " such a measure of Protection as is indispensable in consideration of the flourishing condition of German industry, and in view of the competition of cheap foreign agricultural products." Possibly those engaged in " German industry " may not be disposed to take this favourable view of its conditions and prospects. But even if the Agrarian League be correct in its estimate of other people's prosperity, it is odd that it should have coupled therewith an admission that competition has made food cheap. It does not recognise in this combination the natural relation of cause and effect. German industry is prosperous—if it be prosperous—because cheapness of production enables it to sell its products at low prices. But cheap food is a very important element in cheap pro- duction, and this cheap food is what the Agrarian League is. bent upon taking away from the workman. It is doubtful whether the Tariff Bill as it stands will not have this effect, but there can be no question as to the operation of the Tariff Bill such as the Agrarian League would make it. Agriculture must be put on the same level of prosperity as other industries, and this can only be ' done by keeping out those " cheap foreign agri- cultural products " which prevent the German farmer from getting a living price for what he has to offer. The argument of the Agrarians is quite easy to follow, but the fact that it makes agriculture the declared enemy of every other industry does not seem to have occurred to them. That this is their real position is not left doubt- ful; The proposals of the Federated Governments "are ' such as cannot be accepted 'by German agriculture." Rather than have the Tariff Bill in its present form the Agrarians—at least, so says the Congress—will have no Tariff Bill at all. They will do their best to improVe it during its passage through the Reichstag, but if this proves impossible; and the proposals of the Federated Governments remain what they are, they will not " cor- respond to the just demands of German agriculture." In that case the Agrarian League " expects to see them rejected." Unfortunately for Count von Billow, this is an expectation which the Agrarians can make come true if they choose ; and it seems to leave him no choice but to modify the Bill in such a way as to secure the support of the other Parliamentary groups.
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