THE POPULATION PROBLEM • [To the Editor of THE SPECTATOR.]
Norman Haire's letter raises some important points, especially in relation to current misconceptions of the population problem. I should like to say, first of all, that I rather agree. with his view as to the doubtful desirability of an increase of births in this country. But what Dr. Haire fails to understand is that the annual number of births is a matter of secondary importance so far as the demographic situation is concerned. The number of births is only 'of importance in influencing the size at which a population, given adequate fertility, will eventually. stabilise.
In 1934 there were in this country almost 598,000 live births.. With present mortality an annual supply of that size would be sufficient to produce a stationary population of about 36 millions. Stabilisation at that level would provide. no real cause for anxiety. But the important point is that we are extremely unlikely to maintain the 1934. level of birthS, since it was the product, not of adequate fertility, but Of a large number of'women in the child--bearing age groups living at the time. The number of potentially fertile women will decline in the 'future, and if fertility remains at the 1934 level the number of births will fall off with increasing rapidity
from year to year. .
The maintenance Of a population of any size whether 10 millions or 1,000 millions—requires priniarilY a fertility high enough to ensure that women are replacing them.selvea from generation to generation. In 1934 'fertility was at so low a level that, given present mortality,' only 76 per cent. of the necessary replacement was fdrthcoming. At that rate it is impossible to -Maintain 'a population of any size.
The concern of demographers is thus' riot, as Di. Haire believes, to increase the number of births, but to prevent them from falling continuously. To that end 'Dr.- Haire's proposal of an institution for taking over unwanted babieS is attractive but scarcely strikes at the root of the problem. What seems to me much more desirable is to change the conditions which make children unwanted.I am; Sir, &c.,
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