15 OCTOBER 1983, Page 7

Gulf war: pressures for peace

Alexandra George

recently in Iraq

There are two ways of reporting a war. Dispatches from the front can describe a tactical encounter yet still project the Wider background — the morale, the equip- ment, the commitment to a cause or the Professional skills which determine victory. Yet wars are also decided by economic and Political pressures on the home front. An assumption had been growing that Third World wars must of necessity be short- lived, aimed at limited objectives within the deadline of an inevitable ceasefire imposed by international or economic pressure.

The war between Iraq and Iran has con- founded this school of thought. It is now in its third year. The initial Iraqi superiority over an Iranian army disorganised by the Post-Shah purges was overcome. The un- foreseen fanaticism of the Revolutionary Guards later co-ordinated itself into a new Iranian war machine and drove back the enemy to the pre-war frontier.

Brief battles continue to be fought, most recently in the northern and central sectors. The immediate provocation seems to have been Iranian reaction to Iraqi efforts at training and inciting a rebellious Kurd Minority. Interestingly, the renewal of fighting seems to coincide with new supplies of foreign arms. The Iranians, however, do not seem to have succeeded in breaking through into the heartland of Iraq.

There is a certain amount of war weariness inside Iraq, for almost every Other family has suffered at least one casualty in the conflict. The estimates are of 50,000 Iraqis dead, 50,000 wounded or missing and 100,000 prisoners of war. The Iranian death toll is far higher, with fewer prisoners of war, perhaps because their soldiers, inspired by the fervour of Kho- Meini's Islamic revolution, have been show- ing less caution in attacking the Iraqi lines.

The present military balance is difficult to assess. Military communiques, Iraqi news agency releases and newspaper editorials, whether in the Baghdad Observer or controlled Arabic press, tend to be platitudinous. 'Independent' dispat- ches toe the official line. Officials are not Permitted to meet foreign correspondents without permission from the Ministry of Culture and Information, which is rarely forthcoming. Even foreign correspondents sPecifically invited for the 17 July Baathist Revolution anniversary were generally unable to gain interviews and their writings reflected the assessments of foreign military attaches and diplomats.

Occasional brief flurries of diplomatic activity for a ceasefire have so far failed. The deep and ancient enmity between Per- sian and Arab is evinced by exhortations recalling the battle of Qadisiya in 637 AD when the Arabs, spurred on by a nascent Islam, defeated the decadent Zoroastrian Sassanids of Persia. Iraq projects the pre- sent conflict as an attack on Arab frontiers which other Arab nations have a duty to help defend.

Such support has indeed been forthcom- ing, although Iraq recently criticised the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia for the sporadic nature of its assistance. The war, at its height, cost $1.5 billion a month, and the economic strain forced Iraq to abandon its ambitions and impressive development 'programme in October 1982. Its current foreign exchange reserves may be as low as $1 to 3 billion compared to an estimated $20 to 30 billion before the war. Last October also brought tighter restrictions on import licences and the export of foreign exchange. For the past two years Iraqis have been pro- hibited from travel abroad.

Iraq is now under increasing political and economic pressure: a 'gold-giving cam- paign' launched in June was soon followed by a cash collection drive. The campaign seems mainly aimed at drawing the people as a whole into a national war effort by sharing adversity. Most observers agree that economic considerations are secondary. The 50 tons of gold collected so far in house to house visits is too small to help pay off Iraq's huge international debt. Monetary donations, however, do help curb con- sumption and rising inflation.

The psychological aspect of the campaign is underlined by the long hours President Hussein spends on television shaking hands with the families of donors and clasping their children in a paternalistic embrace. The campaign itself is rumoured to be 60

per cent voluntary and 40 per cent half- hearted. Some goldsmiths near Rashid Street in Baghdad, though afraid to express any open disapproval, have grumbled quietly about the half kilo of gold 'donated' to the war effort. There is an anecdote that the wife of a Moroccan diplomat refused either gold or money to collectors, who then took down her name, insisting on the duty of all Arabs to contribute.

The war has certainly adversely affected this oil-based economy. The country's revenues have plummeted by 80 per cent, from 3.3 million barrels a day in 1979 to about 600,000 barrels a day at present. After the bombing of the port of Basra and damage to the major pipeline, the Syrian pipeline was closed last year. This left only the Turkish pipeline with a normal capacity of about 600,000 barrels a day.

Consequently by early this year revenues were inadequate to meet current contract payments. Iraq began asking for payment deferments on agreements signed in 1981-1982. The most comprehensive agree- ment, in three parts, has been signed with France. In the civilian sector, still under final negotiation, France has agreed to give a two-year credit, but had insisted on a down payment for arms sales. A com- promise was reached at the end of May: France's two state-owned petroleum com- panies, Elf and Total, are to buy from Iraq 4 million tons of oil, which will provide cash for the French weapons purchases. Part of this oil will actually be supplied by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia under a separate agreement, to enable Iraq to fulfil its minimum OPEC quota.

However, by the end of 1984 Iraq's oil production is expected to rise again, with the expansion of the Turkish pipeline, to 1 million barrels a day. This project was undertaken by INOC (the Iraqi National Oil Company) at the beginning of this year with an international loan of $120 million. An agreement in principle has also been signed with Saudi Arabia for a separate Saudi pipeline of 1 million barrels a day, to be completed by 1985.

Iraq urgently needs to raise its oil exports to pre-war levels, not only to meet the bill for sophisticated weaponry from suppliers like France, but also to meet its debt schedules. Iraq owes France $8 billion, out of which $2.4 billion was due in 1983 but had to be rescheduled. With France so heavily committed financially to Iraq an early end to the war is in its own interests. The delivery this week of five Super Eten- dards and Exocet missiles may therefore be a device to exert moral and diplomatic pressure on the Iranians and bring them to the negotiating table, without actually resorting to any military option.

For although it is alleged that Iraqi pilots have received training in France, foreign observers in Baghdad tend to be sceptical about the discipline and efficiency of the Iraqi war machine. In any case it is doubtful whether effective and accurate raids on Ira- nian oil installations or on tankers approaching the main Iranian terminal at Kharg Island could give Iraq victory in the war. Such military successes might, however, meet its current aim of bringing hostilities to an end.

Indeed Iraq has already made known its willingness and indeed desire for such a ceasefire on the pre-war frontiers. Iran, un- til recently, has been pressing Iraq to acknowledge its responsibility for the war and to make massive reparations of up to $100 billion. There are indications that Saudi Arabia, in the course of bargaining, might, under some face-saving device, foot the major part of the reparations bill.

Iran seems now to have waived its de- mand for the overthrow of Saddam Hus- sein and his trial for war crimes. The Non- Aligned Movement, under the chairman- ship of India's Mrs Gandhi, has renewed its activity in search of a compromise. Saddam Hussein would obviously face internal criticism for presiding over .a totally un- productive military adventure at such a cost in lives and prosperity. He has already surviv- ed numerous assassination attempts but the danger lurks within• his own regime. His present international allies might also prefer a replacement to clinch the final deal, especially if Iran's aged and ailing Kho- meini soon fades from the scene.

The uncertain factor in this equation for peace remains the induction of the new French weaponry. Instead of pressing Iran to sit at the negotiating table, it could, as many Western powers fear, merely exacer- bate tensions and widen the conflict. This makes the present search for a compromise the more urgent.