16 APRIL 1994, Page 26

Dry hole

THE CONSPIRACY theory of oil is that the Saudis have pulled the plug on the mar- ket. As the low-cost mass-producer, they want to drive out their marginal competi- tors, squeeze the independents like Lasmo, and discourage the majors from drilling west of the Shetlands or (new idea) under the frozen sea of Irkutsk. When they have done that, they can get the price up. My theory is that they can achieve the same effect by accident.