ANTICIPATIONS REGARDING THE HARVEST.
Tux extent to which the harvest may prove deficient is still matter of conjecture, and of much interest. At Midsummer, it was generally re- presented that the crops promised great abundance, and the injury sus- tained is to he traced to the rains which began with the last month.
The seasons have been favourable for several years. Such was the plenty in 1820, 1821, and 822, that time home produce fully served to meet the consumption; a fact which was placed beyond doubt by the absence of foreign additions to the supply (except of Oats, 726,848 quarters, at the close of 1820), and by the low prices which prevailed. In 1823 and 1824 the harvests were pretty nearly equal to the consumption, except Oats in 1824, of which 619,340 quarters were required from other countries.
It has been questioned, whether the low prices about 1821 and 1822 proceeded from redundant production, or from a diminished consumption among the hulk of the population, owing tb the want of employment at that period among the labouring classes, farming and manufacturing. It is certain, that in the years 1823, 1824, and 1825, the wages of labour considerably improved; and contemporaneously the price of wheat rose from 43s. 11L1. in 1822, to G6s. fig. in 1825. Commencing with that year, the country has stood in need of a greater foreign supply; for in 1825 were entered for home consumption 770,480 quarters of Wheat and Barley ; in 1826, 1,881,939 quarters of different kinds of grain; and last year as much as 2,670,692 quarters, of which 561,011 quarters were Wheat, and 1,850,803 quarters were Oats.
The increase in the population must have been a cause of larger con- sumption, whatever may have been the fluctuating means of purchase. The year 1826 was one of great distress, especially in the manufacturing districts ; the home produce, however, did riot suffice, and a foreign supply was introduced. In the year 1827, a still larger quantity was needed.
In the present year very little foreign corn has been yet brought into
consumption. Until the 15th of last month, when the Corn Bill received the Royal Assent, the law did not admit of the entry of foreign corn ; and since that time the duties have been so exceedingly heavy, that its intro- duction is out of the question. Accordingly, the consumption of the country has for sonic months been running exclusively upon the home produce; and should its replenishment from the present harvest prove short, as is but too evident, the dependence of the population must gradually be thrown almost wholly upon foreign grain.
In these circumstances the operation of the new corn-law will be rather inopportunely brought to the test. According to it, the duties fall as the average prices rise. The average of Wheat was last week between
568. and 57s., and the duty 308. : when the average shall rise to 668., to 678., the duty will be 20.r. S 1. 'Now that the average of Oats is be- tween 21s. and 22s., the duty is 158. 3d.; when the average shall exceed 31a., the duty will be Is. the quarter. The present high duties are, in fact, prohibitory ; and are, if possible, rendered still more so at this time, the prices of grain having advanced on the Continent because the unfavourable weather there has extended over the North of Europe. If, as is apparent, the introduction of foreign supplies to some extent be indis- pensable, the average prices, under the law, must first rise so as to lower the duties ; and then the foreign consumption may commence.
Upon reference to the prices of late years, a considerable rise did occa- sionally take place, owing to the exclusive enactment of the last law, which forbade the admission of any Wheat till the civerage price was at 708, ; and of Oats till the average was at 258. Throughout the year 1824, the average of Wheat was 62a.; and in 1825 it was 66.8. 64.; and Oats throughout 1826 and 1827 were mostly 258. to 31.8..M. per quarter. These prices are as high as those of 1795 and 1796, years of great scarcity; for the value of money may be now considered to be higher than then, per- haps some 20 per cent.; and 66s. Gil. at present may be accounted equiva- lent to full 808. of that period.
The pressure of higher prices for grain cannot he considered abso- lutely, but in relation to the means of the majority of the consumers. The high prices of Wheat in 182-1 and 1825 were less heavy to the labour- ing classes, owing to their better wages, than the low prices of 1822. It is to be hoped that active employment, and some increase of wages, may compensate to the population for the advance of price likely to be experi- enced in the ensuing twelve months. A demand for foreign grain besides must lead to a certain improved demand for manufactures, which are our chief means of payment. The conveyance of grain will infuse some in- creased activity into the shipping interest. Even farmers are often more than repaid for a short produce by the higher price which it procures.
Within a limited range, the situation of the active portion of the com- munity is not affected materially. When the scarcity becomes severer, and the prices double, as in 1800, then a period of distress arises, whirls calls for the interposition of government to draw supplies by suspending duties and the distillation from grain, and even by granting bounties on importation. A time of peace, however, gives a wide range of supply ; and the Baltic, the Mediterranean, and the United States, are the sources to which we must recur. The war in Turkey is unseasonable in this re spect, by closing the Black Set; whence Italy is annually stocked with grain; and receiving that supply, Italy could spare her own growth of Wheat, which is more suited to this country.
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