ARE DEMOCRACIES FICKLE ?
ON the surface of the facts, the General Election of 1892 will certainly deepen the impression, which previous Elections had produced, that democracies are fickle. Before Mr. Disraeli's first democratic Reform Act, the middle-class constituencies of 1832-1865 inclusive, had not earned for themselves such a reputation. In 1841, no doubt, Sir Robert Peel persuaded the country to send the Whigs about their business ; but it could not be denied that the Whigs had grossly mismanaged the finances of the country, and that Sir Robert Peel had earned a fair right to the trial which, though it broke up his party by his conversion to Free-trade, vindicated to the full his reputation as a great administrative statesman. After Free-trade was adopted, the reluctance of the Tory landlords to acquiesce in it, and their anger, rendered it necessary to return to the leadership of Liberals; and from that time, every General Election under the rule of the middle classes, up to and including the Election of 1865, i.e., five General Elections, showed a steady preference for the moderate Liberals, and especially, after 1852, for the leader- ship of Lord Palmerston. But directly the first great democratic Reform Bill had become law, the tendency to oscillation began. The elections of 1868 resulted in Mr. Gladstone's triumph ; those of 1874, in Mr. Disraeli's ; those of 1880, in Mr. Gladstone's ; and by all those signs of by-elections on which Mr. Gladstone lays so much too great a stress, we may infer that the elections of 1885, but for the great supplementary Reform Act of that year, would have replaced the Tory Party in power. That they did not do so, was apparently solely due to the gratitude of the newly enfranchised electors. But in 1886 the pendulum swung back again, and Lord Salisbury found himself at the head of a great majority. For six years that majority ruled, and ruled with singular success. It falsified all the pre- dictions of Mr. Gladstone. Ireland, instead of proving herself ungovernable, calmed down till the provisions of what was called the Coercion Act became quite inoperative, though still in force. The prosperity of Ireland grew apace. In Foreign affairs, even by the admission of the Gladstonians themselves, all went prosperously, though all did not go smoothly. Lord Salisbury showed himself a most able and most sagacious statesman England has never been more happy in her policy ; and her great Colonies have shown themselves as eager to display their loyalty to her as they were to maintain their rights of self-government. Not one of the hostile predictions which ushered the Government into being were fulfilled. The law was enforced in Ireland without difficulty. In England a huge fragment of debt was struck off ; the Navy was enormously strengthened ; the revenue grew ; trade improved. More liberal measures were passed for Great Britain than in any Ministry since Mr. Gladstone's first Administration, for the Irish block was in great measure removed. Yet, in spite of all this success in fulfilling its promises and in falsifying every malicious prediction of its opponents, the General Election has proved that the democracy does not give credit to its successful leaders as the middle-class constituencies gave credit to its successful leaders. No government of Lord Palmerston's ever was so successful as this government of Lord Salisbury's, yet the middle class stuck firmly to Lord Palmerston. But the de- mocracy does not care to let well alone. It prefers to speculate on the consequences of another great change, and to see if it cannot squeeze something out of Mr. Gladstone which it could not squeeze out of Lord Salisbury. This, at any rate, is the superficial view of the case, for no one can be hardy enough to maintain that this General Election is a blow struck for the principle of Irish Home-rule. Mr. Gladstone, and his son, and Mr. Morley, have all been warned in the most im- pressive way of their rapid decline in popular favour. The great cities of the United Kingdom have marked their aversion to the proposed Irish revolution. Even in Edinburgh, and still more markedly in Dublin and its neighbourhood, the growing distrust of change has mani- fested itself. The Gladstonian gain in London is plainly the consequence, not of the Irish policy of the Government, but of the eager hopes inspired by the "Progressive policy" of the London County Council. And it is the same with the large number of Gladstonian gains in the counties. Irish Home- rule was kept sedulously in the background in these con- stituencies ; its significance was as much as possible depre- ciated ; most of the successful candidates made as light of it as possible ; all the emphasis was laid on the promises to the labourers, and none on the constitutional revolution in Ireland. Mr. Gladstone's victory has been almost prevented, instead of secured, by his Irish policy. It is the hope that the agricultural labourers will get more out of him than they could hope to get out of the Unionists, and that alone, that has obtained for him an insufficient and untrustworthy majority.
This, then, is the superficial inference,—that democracies do not hold by their successful leaders as the middle classes did ; that they attach comparatively little im- portance to the fulfilment of promises, to the peace and power of the Empire, to the achievement of moderate and useful reforms. But we doubt if that will be the ultimate judgment of future generations. We must remember that though respect for the Government is not the net result of the General Election, it is the net result of the Election in all the more shrewd constituencies. The great cities of England have shown their gratitude to Lord Salisbury's government. Even Edinburgh and Dublin have indicated their disposition to a change of view. In the Metropolis, thirty-seven against twenty-five constituencies adhere to the Government, though, for reasons we have given, there has been a loss of seats on the Conservative side. In the huge manufacturing towns of Lancashire, in Liverpool, Manches- ter, Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, Sheffield, taken as a whole, an immense majority of the representatives hold to the Government. In all the populous Home Counties, the majority of the Government is overwhelming. It is the new and untrained constituencies which have been specula.. ting in Gladstonian promises and have so turned the scale against us. We need hardly wonder that the agricultural population, who are far from sharing fully in the general prosperity, should be attracted by the golden promises held out to them, and should be disposed to " ask," like Oliver Twist, " for more." We venture to think that as they grow in experience, they will grow in wisdom, and will attach a great deal more importance to a few pledges faithfully kept, and a difficult task in administration suc- cessfully achieved, than to all the golden hopes of a New- castle Programme, when accompanied by the meagre achievements of the party which constructed that pro- gramme and crammed it full of dreams. For the present, it is true, the democracy shows itself fickle ; but the most experienced part of that democracy, the part that dates its political power from 1867, and not only from 1885, has not shown itself fickle ; and we may well hope that the immature democracy which is still in its infancy, indeed, only seven years old, will in the future grow into the shrewder judgment and the more chastened hopes, of those adult constituencies which have already attained the mature age of twenty-five years of political experience.
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