16 MARCH 1861, Page 13

THE LAST AMERICAN PHASE. r iE tide is still upon the

ebb, and though the Union is declared to be past hope, it seems probable that the Republic with which the future of the American continent is so inextricably bound may still be preserved, maimed in- deed, and shorn of its proportions, but still entitled to rank as a first-class power. The progress of disintegration which many observers expected to extend until North America was as full of petty republics as the old Spanish dominion, has at last been arrested, and the losses of the United States, though still large, cease to be fatal to the national dignity or life. Missouri, another Slave State has rejected all pro- jects of secession by a majority which, correctly reported, implies that two-thirds of her population have voted for the continuance of the Union. The whole of the Border States have, therefore, formally, or informally, decided to throw in their fortunes with the North, and the losses of the Republic, though still serious, are reduced to manageable proportions. The decision, too, though nominally based upon the prospect of a compromise, has been announced under circumstances which strengthen the impression that it is independent of all compromises. Even if slavery is guaranteed south of 300 36' N.L., the slaveholdert, so long all- powerful in the Union, must sink into a permanent political minority. The North outnumbers them by six to one. According to the census just received, the population of the Free States amounts to nineteen millions, while the Slave States remaining in the Union, contain only one million three hundred thousand. With a constitution based on numbers, the Northern section must for years to come be dominant, and though a direct slavery issue may be avoided, the whole tendency of events and legislation must be hostile to the in- stitution. The hatred of the North to slavery, moreover, is not likely to diminish, while the growth of the North in wealth and population will every year increase the difficulty of secession—the only weapon by which the slaveholders can attempt to enforce the bond. None of the compromises, it must be remembered, attempt to secure political equality. Nobody has suggested that the Senate should contain as many representatives of the South as of the North, that the President should have a majority- in both sections, or that any portion of the executive should be reserved to Southern men. The North cannot, it is true, admit new States without the consent of the South ; but unless the cotton States return, equality even in the Senate has disappeared. Nothing in the new Constitution prevents any of the States now slave from declaring themselves free, a contingency by no means beyond the range of possibilities. A strong anti-slavery party has often shown itself in the Border States, a party which must become bolder with the declining weight of the aristocracy. Compensation, too, a hopeless alternative while the cotton States remained within the Union, becomes feasible when three-fourths of the slaves have been withdrawn. Less than five millions, for example, would liberate Kentucky or Tennessee, and less than one hundred and fifty thousand pounds Maryland, even at existing prices, and the tendency of the slaves is always further and further south, to the virgin soils on which alone slave labour really pays. The North, to all appearance, will retain in the new Union a clear majority in both Houses, the power of appointing a Presi- dent, and the right to select the entire Federal Executive. The South may rely upon the skill her statesmen have shown in all party conflicts, but her great menace of secession cannot -be employed twice, and upon all questions involving the sectional issue the North has learnt discipline from its foes. The Southern men, we may be sure, have overlooked none of these considerations, and if under such circumstances they still decide to remain, compromises sink into minor importance. Either the old governing class deliberately prefer political suicide to national degradation, or power has passed from them to a class with which slavery is not the first consideration. In either case, slavery, as a great poli- tical issue, is for the Border States, as Mr. Seward affirms, already dead. A guarantee for existing rights without re- ference to the 'future will probably be found sufficient, and it is to the limitation not the extinction of slavery that the Republicans stand pledged.

With the Border States preserved, the losses of the Union, though large enough to create a bitter feeling in every A.merican heart, scarcely impair the permanent resources of the Republic. They are less at all events, both in popula- tion and territory, than England at the close of the American war endured and survived. The cotton States are gone, but the cotton States only cover a certain extent of ground. Their white population is less than a ninth of that of the Union, less than the mere increase sin& the census of 1851.

The North retains a population of twenty-four millions of whites, and a territory which could support five times that number, all the Eastern seaboard, and just as much of the Southern trade as she ever possessed. The revenue is un- affected, for the South, as a speculation, did not pay. The fleet is still in Northern hands. The army can be readily restored to its old level. Egress to the Pacific still remains under control, and the position of the Union among the na- tions is only impaired by the loss of the cotton supply, for- merly the best defence against a coast blockade. Ten years more will, at the present rate of increase, repair all losses, and enable the States to present to Europe a front sustained by a population as large, wealth even greater than at present, and a frontier relieved of its only seriously weak point.

But we may be told the presence of a powerful republic in the south, still more the presence of a slave empire, is, of itself, a new source of weakness for the Union. That is not so certain. If the balance of power should become so im- portant as to compel the Union to maintain an army and a fleet equal to her resources, Mr. Bright's boast of the cheap government of republics will indeed be signally falsified. But the Union, as a great political state, would be only the stronger for the necessity. The neglect of the fleet has already impaired the weight of the Republic in the world, and its reconstruction would enable her to become what Mr.

Webster so often declared she ought to be—a maritime power competent to raise a voice in the European family. Even in internal affairs the existence of a strong army would not be without its compensations. The curse of the Ame- rican Government has been the weakness of the executive, its dependence on an opinion which varied every hour. With an effective army at his back, and a majority in both Houses, no future President is likely to treat rebellion with the meek forbearance of Mr. Buchanan. The new Union, relieved of a heavy drag in the shape of a question which exhausted all energies yet defied a settlement, may com- mence a career before which the whole history of the past will seem futile and inglorious.

The danger of the moment is not now so much slavery as the prevalence of a false political economy. The politicians of the North whom free traders delight to praise, detest free trade with a vehemence before which that of the old protec- tionists is feeble. They have, at last, a majority, and their favourite theories are to have one fair trial. Mr. Mor- rill's new tariff has, it is confidently affirmed, become law, and will effectually close all the avenues of legitimate traffic. No manufactured goods can be exported to ports where they are exposed not only to ruinous duties, but to duties levied after a fashion intentionally perverse. Cotton-weavers, with the world before thein,are not likely to contend for the privilege of supplying ports where exceptional duties are calculated by the number of threads to the square inch. Nor will booksel- lers be very willing to pay fifteen per cent. for the privilege of being pirated as soon as the money has been paid. The tariff will have the effect of the Berlin decrees. The goods will still be imported, but by land, and the consequence will be the decline of the revenue, and the ruin of all cities not blessed with facilities for smuggling. The tariff cannot endure, but meanwhile it may involve a blow on the prosperity of the States as heavy as any Mr. Jefferson Davis will be able to inflict. With half its territory gone, and a ninth of its population, with its treasury in arrears, and its credit in abeyance, Con- gress deliberately raises the price of every necessary except food for the benefit of a few irortmasters and millowners. The English protectionists were unreasonable enough, but i they were the inheritors of an ancient system. It was reserved for the Republicans after a fair trial of free trade to tax the whole community of consumers for the benefit of the half-dozen who think the absence of competition would make their task of production lazier and more lucrative.