LA PRESENCE FRANcAISE
A s the Evian talks on the cease-fire in Algeria ..draw to a close,.and the uncertainty narroWs to a question of just how much bloodshed the OAS can bring about before peace is established in fact as well as in name, it becomes possible for the first time in years to talk of France's future after an Algerian settlement. Once rid of the North African incubus, what will be the place of France in Europe and the world?
Undoubtedly, the first effect of the ending of the Algerian war will be a considerable increase in French influence. The return of French troops to Europe, the ending of the crisis which has ham- strung the French army and preoccupied French officials, the saving of financial resources squandered in a long war will allow France to play a greater role within NATO. President de Gaulle has already asserted French claims to leadership in Western Europe, and his apparently total indifference to whether he is in step with Washington or not makes him the natural spokes- man for those European discontents which the alliance has bred.
To a large extent this increase in French in- fluence is bound to be at the expense of Great Britain, which will, in any case, have to pay the full price for its entry into the Common Market. During the lifetime of President de Gaulle and Dr. Adenauer Mr. Macmillan may find more sympathy in Washington even than in Bonn or Paris for his view of the correct method for deal- ing with Mr, Khrushchev. The French President might not, indeed, be averse to a negotiation with the Soviet Union, but it may be surmised that he envisages it at his own time and place and in terms of traditional diplomatic horsetrading. At the back of his mind is the conception that, where relations with Russia are concerned, Western Europe must speak for itself and France must speak for Western Europe.
The weakness of this policy of French greatness is that it is based on too sanguine a view of France's influence over other countries, and, pos- sibly, of the position of President de Gaulle him- self inside France. An Algerian peace will remove the raison d'être of his personal preponderance as Well as the factor which has so far inhibited the action of the political parties inside France. It is true that so far there is not much sign of their re-emergence, but this state of affairs cannot last for ever. President de Gaulle should know better than anyone that his countrymen are given to acts of spectacular ingratitude.
Moreover, much of France's international in- fluence is due to the close ties it has maintained ' with the French-speaking African States. French policy in Africa has been one of granting political independence, while keeping all possible econqrnic and cultural links—a process for which the Enropean Economic Community has proved an invaluable instrument. So far this policy has been very successful. But can it continue? Will not economic nationalism and a gradual absorp- tion in local politics split up the 'African hinterland,' detaching it from its French con- nection?
Even in Europe France is not in as strong a position as the skill of French diplomacy in Brus- sels might lead observers to suppose. The new French proposals in the Fouchet commission appear to have been opposed by all the remaining members of the Six, some of whom now seem anxious to delay any decision until. something definite is known about Great Britain's entry into the Community.
In fact, although President de Gaulle disposes of some powerful weapons in his self-appointed task of increasing France's influence, some of these are by their nature temporary advantages, and others are likely to be blunted by too much use. He must face the fact that splendid isolation does not really redound to France's credit and that l'absence francaise is no substitute for la presence fratimise. President de Gaulle has done his country the immense service of extracting it from Algeria. It is his right to endeavour to raise its international tanding, but he would be wise to do so by the same methods of patient diplomacy which have proved successful in the negotiations with the FLN.
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