. A SPECTATOR'S NOTEBOOK I WAS considerably interested a day or
two ago in hearing a particularly competent American authority put the coin- . plications of the American Presidential election campaign in a nutshell. What it comes to in a word is this : It is expected that about fifty-five million voters will go to the poll; of these roughly twenty-two million are safe to vote Democrat and fifteen million safe to vote Republican. That leaves a floating vote of eighteen millions that will decide the issue. It is a pretty large float, and it may be noted that while, on this showing, the Democrats would need only six million of it for success the Republicans would need twelve. What are the chances ? The Democrats reckon that they could beat any Republican except Eisenhower. The Republicans reckon that any Republican could beat Truman—but Truman is not stand- ing. If Taft gets the Republican nomination the odds are that the Democrats will win with Kefauver or Harriman or someone else—almost anyone would do. If Eisenhower gets it the Democrats' only hope is Governor Stevenson, of Illinois. As between him and Eisenhower the odds might be put as even. Governor Stevenson has insisted that he will not stand, but the Democratic Convention is a fortnight after the Republican, and if Eisenhower is nominated at the latter the pressure on Stevenson to let his name go forward as Democratic champion will be tremendous. The conclusion of the whole matter ? On the whole that General Eisenhower is likely to be Republican candidate and thereafter Republican President. * * * *
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