THE ECONOMY
The captains of industry collect in Harrogate
JOCK BRUCE-GARDYNE
Autumn nowadays brings conferences as well as mists and mellow fruitfulness. You thought the conference season was over? Not a bit of it. On Sunday the CBI is gathering in Harrogate.
The CBI are the Johnnies-come-lately of the conference circuit. Ten years ago the notion of an annual get-together of the nation's managers along the lines of the seaside media-fests of the political parties and the TUC was no more than a gleam in the eye of the new director-general, John Methven. The rival Institute of Directors had been staging an annual conference in the Albert Hall for some time, but that was a one-day event. John Methven dreamed of something altogether more ambitious.
He met with lots of scepticism. Since the prime purpose would inevitably be to win and hold television and newspaper cover- age as the parties and the TUC contrive to do, the major fear and prediction was that the bosses collectively would bore the pants off the outside audience, and soon be left well alone.
On the whole the sceptics have been confounded. In fact the CBI's annual gathering has come to compare rather favourably with the others. Less bland than the Tories, less loony than the Liberals, somewhat less earnest than the SDP, far less bloody than Labour, and thankfully less exposed to internecine warfare than the TUC, the bosses have swiftly learned the skills of presentation to the watching nation. They have also proved unexpected- ly (and encouragingly) wayward. Last year, for example, they flung out a call for cheaper sterling which had the blessing of the High Table. And this year they have achieved the added bonus of fore- gathering in Harrogate, most elegant of conference backdrops.
From the welcome serenade to be pro- vided by the Frickley Main Colliery Band (courtesy of the Coal Board) on Sunday afternoon to the farewell address of their President, Sir James Cleminson, at noon on Tuesday, 'Change to Succeed' (the slogan for the Confederation's 25-year 'National Plan', brought out last month) is to be their diet. 'Changing attitudes Management for Change — Change for More Jobs — Training for Change' and the final debate — the one that Mrs T and Co will be watching — on 'The Changing Role of Government'.
Eschewing such interesting suggestions as the one from the Minerals Committee that 'Conference has to rub the noses of the great British public. . . in the fact that they cannot have pots and pans, homes and hospitals, Concorde, or even cut glass until industry has discovered appropriate raw materials, been allowed to extract them whence nature left them, and put them to use', the stage-managers have selected a quintet of propositions. They cover rates, 'infrastructure' spending (more of it), gov- ernment support for exports (ditto), in- terest rates (less of them) and Serps (leave well alone).
Judging by the tone of the resolutions submitted (and also by Sir Terence Beck- ett's sniffy reaction to Nigel Lawson's autumn statement), there is going to be vociferous support for the recent broadside from Lord Aldington and friends against the Government's reputed scorn for manu- facturing. Ayre Mallett (whoever they may be) seem to be alone in asserting bluntly that 'free trade is no longer in the best interests of Britain'. But there's going to be no shortage of complaints of the 'why play cricket when the rest are into all-in wrest- ling?' variety. The more cerebral delegates will be demanding early participation in the European exchange rate grid: it will be interesting to see if that proposition is put to a vote and carried. It does not fit so comfortably as some of the resolutions seem to assume with those cheaper interest rates they will be calling for. But in fairness it should be added that the CBI is not going to overlook its own responsibilities. One motion selected for debate 'recognises that the prerequisite for improved British in- dustrial performance is better manage- ment'; and judging by previous years the 'I'm not going to school, I'm supporting my teachers by staying in bed.' bosses will not hesitate to pick at their own acne spots.
In previous years the bosses have con- trived to coin some phrases which have entered the national blood stream — John Methven's 'drinking in the Last Chance Saloon' in 1979, for example, or Michael Edwardes's 'leave the bloody stuff' — oil — 'in the ground' and Terence Beckett's 'bare-knuckle fist-fight' with the Tory Gov- ernment in 1980. Some of them (one thinks of Alf Gooding from Wales) are estab- lished media stars, and it would be surpris- ing if there were not some new ones by Tuesday. But does it make any difference? As the captains and the cameras depart, will life go on as usual? Superficially, no doubt, it will. Neither the Prime Minister nor Nigel Lawson is suddenly going to pledge some unconsid- ered billions to drains and export aids, or to instruct the Bank of England to clip four points off base rates. But although this Government has never shown the defer- ence to the CBI displayed by its predeces- sors, the Confederation's clout is not to be ignored. There is, for instance, no question in my mind (and I was in the Treasury at the time) that the CBI's lobbying of Tory backbenchers in the winter of 1981-82 played a major role in persuading us to slash the National Insurance surcharge 10 the 1982 Budget. The Prime Minister reckons now that most of that seeped out in higher wage settlements rather than more employment (as some of us argued that it would). But the hard fact is that by early 1982 the CBI had left us with precious little choice. Nor is the CBI's role in aborting Nigel Lawson's plans for a fiscal raid on the pension funds last winter to be overlooked. So we shouldn't underestimate them. If they were to carry a proposal next week in Harrogate telling the Government to stop dithering and join the Eurosnake, say, it might not tip the balance and overcome the Prime Minister's instinctive resistance. But then again, it might. Particularly as (in this instance if not in others) it would be pushing at an open door in the Treasury• Further calls for cuts in interest rates would fall on deafer ears. Yet even there Nigel Lawson's ability to resist pressures for cheaper money, from his own back ben- ches notably, would take a knock. Which is rather more than could be said for the impact of the other annual confer- ences, when you come to think of it. Not bad going for Johnnies-come-lately.
Previous page
