11:LE RESTLESS EAST.
TT is significant of the sensitive state of European affairs that the Cretan disturbance, which ostensibly originated in purely domestic quarrels over the spoils of office, should have already developed into a diplomatic phase. M. Tricoupis, who has every reason to keep the peace as long as he can, thought himself obliged to write and transmit to the Powers that formidable-looking Note, which we last week summarised, describing the situation in Crete from his own Hellenic point of view, and ending with an ominous threat hinting plainly at Greek inter- vention unless the vaguely specified troubles are promptly allayed. The Note, therefore, is in the nature of a warning voice, but it is uncertain whether the alarm is intended to save Crete from the Turks, or M. Tricoupis from the tactics of his principal Parliamentary opponent. However that may be, it is sufficient to know that for effective reasons the Minister sent forth the document, and that not only the Porte, but four Powers—England, Germany, Austria, and Italy—have felt that it required an answer. Russia apparently stands aloof, but France, it is said, contemplates some kind of action, at least going to the length of what is called " an exchange of views." Hence the turmoil in Crete has been held sufficiently important to set the diplomatic pumps at work for the purpose of extinguishing, or rather quieting down to the innoxious point, these ominous jets of Candian and Greek fire. For the answer of the the four Powers is, in effect, that there is no call for settlement, as there is no Cretan ques- tion, and practically no need for any intervention to protect the Christians from Moslems. The Porte, indeed, insists that the Moslem minority is in danger from the Christian. majority ; and however that may be, the Powers trust a at the Sultan will act promptly and restore order,—in other words, remove at once a cause of anxiety which threatens the general peace. The case is all the more complicated because the nominal source of confusion is not any specific tyranny of the sovereign Power, but the inability of the parties in the island. to agree among themselves. At bottom, of course, the Cretans desire either independence, which is unattainable ; or annexation to Greece, which many among them dread. ; or a protectorate. In the present state of Europe, at all events, none of these desires can be gratified.; and, therefore, the four Powers have turned a stream of cold. water on the agitation, and imposed. on the Porte the duty of getting it under without exciting anybody's anger. It is because the task is not one which can be easily per- formed, that the bearing of this Cretan dispute upon the general peace creates much apprehension. All the Powers, -we are assured from St. Petersburg, by the newspaper -which is devoted to the Foreign Office, are agreed that the -insurrection shall not become dangerous to the peace of Europe,—which should. be good. news, for all the Powers ought to prevail. But the Foreign Office is not the dominant power in Russia, and we are not surprised to learn from the same quarter that the Powers are advised to secure their object by bringing pressure to bear on the Porte on behalf of the Cretans whose paltry squabbles over the island cash-box began the riot. As a matter of fact, so far as we know,—but we admit that the information from Crete is very inadequate,—they have little to complain of ; and, with the free institutions they possess, could do almost what they please, provided they could stifle their jealous passions and manage their affairs with temper and prudence. Because they cannot, the peace of Europe is put in jeopardy, and the Sultan is called. upon to perform. a feat which is beyond his power,—control a " turbulent ;and. intractable people" without violence. Moral force can do much ; but if there be politicians who think that -rtheir more or less abstruse purposes can be served by keeping up disorder, the world—and. especially the Grano- . Cretan world—will be vastly changed if disorder is not l.kept up and capital made out of it, whatever the Sultan may .do or the four Powers recommend. The financial ;-folk are of opinion that nothing will come of it. Perhaps so; those who have long memories will not the less ,look on disorder in Crete as an ugly sign.
Independently of its influence on the latent antagonisms . among the Great Powers, the mere hint of annexation to 'Greece at once stirs up the rivalries existing among the . small provinces in South-Eastern Europe. A semi-official newspaper in Sofia has already declared that, were the con- nection accomplished, Bulgaria would. demand. compensa- tion,—just as, when Eastern Roumelia forcibly joined Bulgaria, the Servian ruler went to war in order to lay .',hands on territory, part of old Servia. All the emancipated. -provinces burn to he bigger, each aiming at something like Empire on a small scale, and looking hungrily on the tract between the Gulf of Salonica and the Danube as an inheritance. Even Montenegro, inhabited by Serbs who /have been free since they were fugitives from the field of Kossovo, cherishes a claim to headship, and surveys from her mountain heights the promised land. and the shadowy - throne. So that a throb in Crete or in Servia sends a thrill through and beyond the whole emancipated region, raising up repressed ambition and awakening feelings of bitter ,rivalry between the eager claimants to a disputed succes- sion which has not yet lapsed.. And they dream these dreams while, if Austria's footsteps tend towards Salonica, the sign-posts on all the roads in Russia point to Con- stantinople ! By dint of great prudence and the natural fears which ihaunt the restless little States, the long-expected ex- ualosion in Europe has been so far staved off, and, barring accidents, will still be staved off for some time, so great are the stakes alike of the Powers who strive to preserve the peace, and of those who are credited with latent aggressive designs. Were it otherwise, although it is primarily an act of Royal courtesy, the return visit paid. by the Emperor Francis Joseph to Berlin might be regarded as indicative of some- -thing graver than it is. The imperial language poured forth at the banquet in the Schloss on Tuesday had a distinctly military ring, it is true, yet not more so than on similar occasions in Vienna, Rome, and Berlin. Moreover, the alliance between Germany andAustria has lasted so long, has been so openly displayed and even strengthened of late years, that little beyond. what maybe called urgent current business is likely to be transacted. at Berlin. The prompt interven- tion of the three allied. Powers, together with England, between Greece and Crete shows afresh a union to repress causes of strife ; and there can be no doubt that the monarchs and statesmen in Berlin will discuss the troubled. condition of the Danubian States, the more especially as Servia has fallen to such an extent under Russian influence. From that point of view, the position has materially changed. from what it was a year ago,—a change made evident by the aggressive tone and style of Servia, the new and striking relationship of the Montenegrin to the Russian House, and the words of aid. and comfort openlyvouchsafed to sturdy Bulgaria in London as well as in Vienna. It may be that the Slav success secured in Belgrade indirectly or directly led to the Cretan insurrection, for some sort of understanding between Greece and Servia is of an old date. Hence, apart from matters pertaining to the Triple Alliance, military as well as political, we shall not be wrong in assuming that the present general condition of the Danubian and Balkan States in itself, and as it bears upon the constant struggle between Russia and Austria, was talked. over. The Austrian Emperor was attended by soldiers as well as statesmen, and they did. not ride in his wake merely to make a show. The current and contingent business would spring out of the changed nature of the large problem, and the fruits thereof may be visible in the coming months, when tendencies now obscure become developed on the Danube and in the Mediterranean, and the meaning of General Vannovski's pleasant trip to Paris and Vichy is less a matter of speculation than it is now. In a few days the Czar will journey to Berlin, accompanied by M. de Giers, who is peacefully inclined, and then the series of return calls will be complete. This visit, however, will be strictly one of courtesy ; and whether it will in any way modify the situation either for good or ill, no one can say. It is to this extent satisfactory, that it is a guarantee of peace, at least for several months, since the Czar would not seek his Imperial brother if the war party in Russia had gained already the upper hand. We take note of these superficial signs, but do not fail to remember, what must be ever present to the minds of the Governments, that the essential condition of things remains unchanged in any respect; and how permanently threatening that is, almost every month brings a keen reminder. The gathering of Austrian troops in Galicia, which will far exceed a hundred.
thousand men at the beginning of next year, marks out but does not measure the peril. Russia and France, who have so much to gain, constantly tend to approach each other, and to act more or less obviously together ; the mighty combination which seems needed to preserve tran- quillity even for a week, grows ever stronger; and a move- ment in the restless East, a little spurt of flame in Crete, although it purports to be only a spark on the domestic hearth, at once calls up the Powers and brings them into line. The surface alternates with light and shade; but the deep below is, as it has long been, ominously black.
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