HOPE AND RUMOUR
The less simple-minded delegates are watching neither Truman nor Eleanor Roosevelt, but Senator Lyndon Johnson. By stopping, if only temporarily, the Stevenson bandwagon, Truman greatly increased the bargaining power of the Southern bloc organised by Lyndon Johnson the Senate leader and Speaker Rayburn. It still looks like Stevenson, but the bloom is off; even his supporters note weaknesses in the traditional smoke-filled rooms if not in the open. Nobody outside the Harriman camp thinks Harriman can win; but some think he can stop the Stevenson force by long balloting and, possibly, a dark-horse nomination. The best-lit dark horse is Stuart Symington, who is coy but willing. There has been some speculation as to whether the real object of Truman's declara- tion was to stop Stevenson in order to make possible the nomination of Symington, but this is probably too ingenious.
If Stevenson is nominated, who will be Vice-President? Kefauver is still strong among delegates but is very much disliked by professionals. The star of the Convention last night was Senator John Kennedy, of Massachusetts : his Catholicism is both a handicap and a help. The stable is full of dark horses for Vice-Presidency. It must be remembered that many delegates are running for office themselves; they don't believe they can beat Ike, but do believe they can beat local Repub- licans if there is a strong ticket. Politicians talk soberly of carrying both houses of Congress, for awe of Ike's vote-getting capacity doesn't entail respect of the Republican party; mean- time it is important to hold Democratic governorships, etc. There is deep resentment at the possible damage Truman did to this ambition; and his move, by increasing Southern power, may weaken the civil rights stand; but there is less fear of a negro bolt than there was. All the orators, including Mrs. Roosevelt, have stressed that Codlin's the friend of the negro, not Short. But the Harriman forces may force the pace. They can't get Southern support so they are ready to face a Southern secession and are banking on the great Northern industrial" States. The political plasterers are busy but success is not yet certain. The most important Negro politician, Congress- man Dawson of Chicago, is believed to be still for Adlai.
There is total indifference to Suez or any other foreign issue. Even the denunciations of Dulles are part of a plan of general invective; the party is most anxious not to have the label 'war party' pinned on to it. It is still basing probably fallacious hopes on the farm vote but in secret candour it is highly doubtful of a Presidential victory if Ike is plausibly fit up to November 6. A new generation of politician is coming up. 1956 is the last chance of Stevenson, Harriman, Lausche; hence the savagery of the fighting.
But no depressing thoughts affect the average delegate who smells victory; and candidates never really suffer complete lack of faith in victory. Truman believes victory possible by old 'give 'em hell' methods. I doubt very much if such hopes are widely shared by other 'Pros.' The Convention adjourned last night to the tune of 'Happy days are here again.' The Pros like to believe this, but many reflect that whatsoever king shall reign, they with luck and skill will be Vicars of Bray. A Demo- cratic President would be nice, but not necessary.
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