TOPICS OF THE DAY.
TEE PARLIAMENTARY SITUATION.
THE Eastern policy of Great Britain will not, we fear, be immediately improved by the opening of Parliament. The majority of Tory Members, it seems evident, are not dis- posed to press their leaders to insist upon the Sultan's accept- ance of the policy of the Conference. Many of them. think, as Mr. Lowther said, that the Porte has been "sat upon" rather too heavily already, the Porte being "a plucky Power," and entitled to the respect Tories pay to foxes which run hard and badgers which bite savagely ; and many more consider that while any extent of "persuasion" and even of remon- strance was justified by the circumstances, coercion would interfere too decidedly with the assumed right of every State to settle its internal difficulties for itself. That Italy was enfranchised from the outside does not affect these gentlemen, who, indeed, are usually quite inaccessible to any historical argument, and if they ever heard of Cromwell's successful interference for the Waldenses, which is most improbable, think that the conduct of an usurper is conduct to be specially avoided. They are not strongly desirous of fighting for Turkey, particularly while any such proposal would shatter the Government of their affections, but they believe Lord Derby right in adhering to a policy the object of which was total inaction. A few Tories there are, indeed, who feel keenly the humiliation which Europe has suffered at the hands of the Turks, and would not be displeased to see Enrope as a whole make one more effort to persuade the Pashas, but they are too few seriously to influence the policy of the Adminis- tration. The Tories, therefore, as a body, may be regarded as cordially opposed to any vigour or spirit in our foreign policy. On the other hand, the Liberals display unexpected hesitation. They are all, we may say, to a man, of opinion that Turkey has forfeited all claim to be considered a civilised Power, and are all willing to aid in bringing a European pres- sure to bear upon the Sultan, even though that pressure should take the form of direct menace. But they are not all willing to admit that they are bound to employ force, and are espe- cially unwilling to employ force under any agreement which can be entered into with Russia alone. Some of those who draw back cannot overcome their distrust of Russian designs ; others hold that if the policy adopted is to be in any degree Russian, Russia should do her own work alone; and a third section are strongly moved by a sense of the momentary inop- portuneness of war. Many of the Members for the commercial centres and the great ports plead that their constituents are weary of the stagnation in business, and hopeful that it is about to end ; that they regard any policy whatever tending to war as dangerous to the commercial and financial interests of the country ; and that, therefore, while fully sensible of the claim made on their sympathies by the Turkish Christians, they shall not vote against an acceptable policy of inaction. They do not agree in the slightest degree with the Turco- philes, they will be heartily glad if Russia can rescue the Slays and Greeks from the dominance of the Ottoman caste, but they wish their own country to remain a mere spectator of the struggle, and to pursue her own business of making money without interruption from enterprises abroad. They have, they say, to think of taxpayers at home, before they expend money on sufferers abroad. Those who hold these opinions, in more or less cynical forms, are not very numerous, but they are numerous enough to make their leaders extremely doubtful as to the consequences of precipitate, or even of determined action.
The Parliamentary prospect, therefore, would be one of a languid and fitful campaign, during which much good eloquence would be expended on mere criticism, were it not for two or three incidental circumstances. One is that the statesmen on both sides see very dearly that with a policy of mere inaction Russia and Turkey will shortly be left face to face, and as they are well aware that there is no equality between the two Powers, that the stories of Russian weakness and Turkish strength are mere inventions, circulated for political ends, they regard the prospect with a disquiet which may even yet pro- voke them to the only remedial action,—an arrangement with Russia which might make her advance irresistible, but would certainly regulate her use of any advantages she might gain. In that event, and supposing both sets of leaders to concur in the main, it is not probable that the rank and file, who know that they are comparatively ill-informed, would mutiny, or indeed ex- press any open disapproval ; and Parliament, for practical pur- poses, would be unanimous. The languid campaign would end, because action would have begun. This contingency will, we know, be declared to be chimerical ; but it is not so, leaders and followers alike being still influenced by a latent hope that Turkey may give way, or Russia draw back, or some European event occur which will render a resort to force for the present impossible. As the days draw on, however, the impression that war cannot be averted deepens, and with it the perception that Britain, in retiring from the struggle, may lose all influence over its termination, and may ultimately be compelled to take action of a far more serious kind than would be involved in an agreement with Russia for the enfranchisement of the Christian Provinces. The resulting uneasiness will not, of course, affect the commercial Members' who are thinking mainly of markets, but it will greatly affect men who, when united in general opinion, are always able to induce the two Houses to accept their conclusions. And thirdly, there is still no certainty that the country outside Parliament agrees with the hesitating policy of its repre- sentatives. It is admitted that two opinions have the support of great numbers of electors,—the opinion that we are not concerned till Constantinople is in danger, and the opinion that we ought to protect the Turkish Christians, but it is not yet decided which opinion is in the majority. The Turkophiles are very confident, but there is grave reason to doubt if their confidence is shared by the Government, or by men whose business it is to understand in what direction the constituencies sway. Very impartial men mutter that a dis- solution might change everything, and if a dissolution would change everything, the opinion of the electors who would then be all-powerful will have great weight even now,—a weight which, as the fight goes on, may become more and more perceptible. Members, when the pinch comes, are not so willing to risk their seats as they fancy themselves to be, and this is not a subject on which, if electors feel at all, they feel indifferent about their Members' votes.
Our impression of the temper of Parliament, then, is that it is not unfavourable to the quiescent policy which Lord Derby, if left to himself, is sure to recommend, but that this mood cannot be relied on in calculating the course of affairs. It is too liable to be altered by events which Members scarcely expect,—they still anticipating that peace will be preserved,— but which are sure to happen ; by the influence which those events will exercise on all statesmen ; and by a divergence not yet proved, but strongly suspected, between the House of Commons and the people who elect it. There is no victory for the Government, but only a momentary acquiescence in a situation which the Government did not seek. The immediate outlook, however, is dark enough, the quiescence of both parties involving a temporary course of action which both parties, for their different reasons, deplore. The Government must remain neuter, its own followers being as indisposed to action as the Opposition, and Russia, therefore, can do as she likes towards Turkey,—the exact position in which Tories are unwilling to place her ; while Turkey can behave as she likes towards Christians,—the exact prerogative of which the Liberals consider that the Porte ought to be deprived. A more unsatisfactory condition of affairs could hardly be imagined, but it is that which temporarily exists ; and the only hope is that it may last but a little while, and may be ended either by events, or as we should desire, by a definite intimation frem the country that it is not content with it. That intimation will, of course, not arrive until it is certain that the Government has no further intention of doing any- thing except sit still, an intimation which they have not yet unmistakably given.
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