In the event, which is far from improbable, of the
Confer- ence coming to no satisfactory decision, it is a little hard to tell what may ensue. Germany argues that the basis of the Madrid Convention of 1830 will be restored; but as this dealt only with economic questions and the status of foreigners, it provides no answer to the main question. We do not for a moment imagine that there will be any open rupture. The Sultan will go on in his old paths, anarchy will continue, and Germany will fish in the troubled waters of Morocco as she has fished in those of Constantinople. Ultimately, of course, the unrest May become so great as to endanger France's authority in North Africa, in which case matters would come to a crisis between her and Germany. On the whole, we are inclined to think that German policy will not be permanently intransigent, but that, following its traditional habit, it is trYing to acquire "compensation." In -return, for certain concessions by France or Britain—in West Africa, in Asia Minor, or in the Far East—she might forego all inter- ference in Morocco. We may notice the report, which has something to commend it, that Germany is anxious for special rights in Mogador, and is prepared in return for them to give France a free hand, in the rest of the country. We do not think that British interests would in any way be endangered by such an arrangement—a German naval base on the West Coast would not injure us, though it might tempt the Kaiser to abandon the policy of naval concentration—and if France agreed it might solve the difficulty.
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