The Turkish situation is very curious. Not, indeed, because we
are neither at war nor at peace, for we have been in that condition since 1918; but because of the complete indefiniteness of almost every factor that is influencing events. The threat to Allied ships at Smyrna was probably a demonstration of the Turkish extremists to see whether the Allies could be frightened into further concessions. Since that has failed moderate opinion seems to be making itself felt at Constantinople. Ismet is not yet back from Lausanne, but when he returns his influence, it is hoped, will be for peace. Fundamentally, the question whether the Turks will sign at Constan- tinople what they spurned atLausanne depends on whether Kemal's Government is actuated by a real spirit of national regeneration, working genuinely for the salvation of the Turkish race, or whether it is but a group of adventurers bent on exploiting international chaos to their own advantage. Is Kemal but a new adventurer (a new Mehmet All figged out in the modern paraphernalia of democratic institutions) or a real leader of his people ? And this is just what nobody knows. The troth probably is that both elements are present in the Turkish Govern- ment. If the better prevails, the treaty will be signed, if the worse, indeterminate armistices will drag on in the Near East.
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