Correspondence
A LETTER FROM DUBLIN.
[To the Editor of the SPEcTAzon.1 Sza,—Since May, without intermission, the Free State has been in a state of fierce political ferment. One startling event has followed on another, and the struggle for power has passed from revolutionary to Parliamentary fields only to become more intense. We are only at the beginning of the real battle ; for now that the Republicans have entered Parliament, the debates of the future will be impassioned and real. Hitherto we have had government without Opposition.
I have just returned from a tour through a large part of the country. I found the remotest mountain sides plastered with appeals for the Government and denunciations of it. It was not easy to get at the mind of the people. That suspicion of strangers so characteristic of the Irish country folk has been deepened by recent events. Ask a boatman with whom you go fishing what way the district will vote and he will go about to discover your own sympathies before he speaks his mind ; and then he will be cautious and ambiguous—fearing, perhaps, that he is going to be tried under the Public Safety Act. So closely are the people keeping their own counsel that the leaders of the political organizations themselves are quite in the dark as to the chances at Thursday's General Election. I believe that not one leading politician to-day is so confident that he would "back his fancy" with a five pound note. The only sure prophecy I heard was that Mr. John Jinks of Sligo has a larger proportion of supporters who will loyally abstain from voting than any other candidate.
At the dissolution, the Government and its supporters outnumbered the Opposition in the House by one seat, while there were six non-jurors outside the House. The six non-. jurors have retired from the election, making a present of the goodwill of their seats to Fianna Fail, Mr. De Valera's party. In addition to this, the Government has lost a seat by the resignation of Mr. J. J. Walsh, Minister for Posts and Chairman of the Government party. By standing for Mr. Walsh's seat, President Cosgrave may retrieve to some extent the position created in Cork ; but the Government group enters the election with a total of five seats to the bad. In order to secure itself, therefore, it must gain at least ten or twelve seats. Even then it will not be much steadier than before the dissolution.
This being the problem, what is the likelihood of a solution.? The Government has two strong arguments on which it relies—apart from the heated personalities which have been to abundant in the campaign. First is the need for strong rule to save the State from such calamities as the O'Higgins murder. Second is the almost desperate need of a big loan. These arguments have strengthened the Government with the business community. Several leading independents have joined the Government, and the second preferences of ex-Unionist voters, who formerly plumped for men like Major Bryan Cooper, now will be given to the Government panel. In effect, the Government party has moved solidly to the right, discarding or losing Mr. Walsh and men who think with him, such as Senator Dowdall and Mr. Hugo Flinn, eminent Cork men. It has become committed to Free Trade. It depends for its return, therefore, on business interests and fear of revolution.
On the other side there is the tacit coalition of Fianna Fail (i.e., " Fenians of Ireland," a name for the patriot party coined by a Jacobite poet) and Labour. I expected that the taking of the oath would embarrass the Republicans; but found that it is the least of considerations. One ot the non-jurors actually nominated a Fianna Fail candidate. As for the charge of perjury, the saying of a Republican wit sums up popular Nationalist opinion : "They call us perjurers because we blurted out the truth." Fianna Fail is confident of holding its own plus the non-jurors' seats, and thinks it may attain a total of fifty-five seats. As for Labour, it has the advantage that it came within an ace of forming a Government, so that for the first time it has the prestige of a party capable of holding office. It makes great use of the perils inherent in so far-reaching a coercion measure as the Public Safety Act, which has become unpopular.
Captain Redmond's party goes to the polls with only four sitting members, but its prestige assists the coalition. Its members have made damaging use of Major Cooper's strongly Unionist record, and of his support of the motion to introduce divorce in the Free State. Thus some clerical hostility to the Government's new affiliations has been mused. Captain Redmond's speakers also have argued that a Government wielding the Public Safety Act is less likely to borrow successfully than a Government supported by a general reconciliation. One other factor is important, now that voting has become so close that a miss is as good as a mile. It is the entry of Lord Mayor O'Neill of Dublin and of Jim Larkin into the fray as Independents. Both have big personal popularity, and may influence several seats ; and both are opposed to the Government.
Weighing up these pros and cons it seems certain that under the " P.R." rules neither side will be returned in strength ; and the opinion that I heard throughout the country, "the position will be much the same," is well founded. The really important facts are (1) that the issue tacitly is narrowing down to two distinct gmups, and (2) that the Treaty position has been consolidated beyond all expectation. It has been made indisputably clear that whether in a minority, a conditional majority, or an over-all majority, Mr. De Valera's party henceforward is committed to the working of the Treaty. The proposal to denounce the constitution and to revert to the claim that the Second (Republican) Dail is still in being, has been abandoned. Widespread distress and unparalleled emigration have obliged politicians to come down to bread-and-butter politics. While these conditions last no party willingly will raise constitutional• issues. Nothing but a provocative use of the Public Safety Act now could send Republicans back to unconstitutional tactics.
Before this letter appears enough election results may be published to indicate the likely balance of parties. Another election next year is almost certain ; for the Government party, while it may gain its dozen seats, certainly will not gain enough to secure itself for five years, while, on the other hand, a Republican-Labour coalition—which will come about if the anti-Government tendency visible at the last election has not been arrested—could not last long. Labour has announced that it will not- support a Fianna Fdil Govern- ment; but Fianna Fail, as the "better half," hardly would be content to keep Labour on the Government bench indefi- nitely. Next year's election will be on some strictly practical issue, such as Protection. There is no truth in the rumour that our general elections in future will be held on the last Saturday of every month.—I am, Sir, &e.,
YOUR DUBLIN CORRESPONDENT.
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