All the losers
THE PRESS BILL GRUNDY
Coming back from the Grand National a fort- night or so ago I was thinking what a fool I am. For what's the point of going out on a limb, as I did? Had I waited half an hour I would have known the result. I also would have been a hell of a sight better off. This week has reminded me of the Grand National quite a bit. For it is, after all, the time of the greatest Spring Classic of the lot. By the time you read this it will be all over, and you will know the result. But as I put tappers to typewriter Mr Jenkins is merely under starter's orders. Even by the time I've finished he'll only be approach- ing the first fence. And yet I can tell you ex- actly what he's going to say.
To be quite accurate, all I can tell you is what a lot of lads think he's going to say. Because I calculate that over the last few days more than four acres of foresight have flopped through my letter-box on to my worn-out doormat. And every single rod, pole and perch of it has been telling me what Mr Jenkins is going to do, or at least what he ought to do if he's got any sense.
Now I am all in favour of pundits. They help me find my way through the maze that other people call life. But when they differ I get cop- fused. And this week I am spinning around so dizzily that I bear a remarkable resemblance to a certain celebrated bird. This doesn't make for clarity, but it does mean that if I disappear you will at least know where I've gone. I don't think my confusion is unjustified.
I mean, there was Honest Vic Knight in the Mirror telling me that. motorists and gamblers could be the Chancellor's main targets. Other possibilities are increases in corporation tax and a savings incentive. Dave 'Always Pays' Mal- bert, the Evening News city editor, agrees about motoring, and the corporation tax. He also men- tions drinks ('particularly wine'), tobacco, and household goods. But playing it safe, he says: 'The fact is that a very good case could be made out for a standstill Budget.' He doesn't make it, though. Honest Vic agrees about the standstill— in a way. He says: 'Most of the expert fore- casts'—he doesn't say if that includes him— 'vary between a standstill and an increase of about £200 million to £300 million.' Some variation. Some experts.
Matey Male Crawford in the Sunday Times agrees about the £200 million, but although he was billed on page one as telling us where the taxman was going to strike, he somehow never got round to it.
'Appy Al Day in the Observer doesn't think that the Chancellor will hit at the motorist.
Poor Pat Hutber in the Sunday Telegraph says that 'though as a motorist I hate to say it, there is much to be said for soaking the motor- ist.' And he says it. But he also thinks that the idea of a standstill Budget is ludicrous. He is certain that Mr Jenkins will put up taxes by 'somewhere between, say, f150 million and £400 million.' Yeah, let's say that; it gives us plenty of room for error.
The Times had four tipsters—their own Pete Jay, and three foreign fellers, and what it's got to do with them I can't imagine. But after I'd read it all I was more baffled than ever and so I can't tell you what they're tipping.
All in all, the whole masquerade is best summed up the way Patrick Sergeant did it in Monday's Mail. Across five columns he wrote: `After the acres of articles about it this week- end, does anybody know what's coming in the Budget? Well, if not, I'll tell you, or at least I'll tell you what I think the odds are against the various mistakes the Chancellor might I should have thought there was enough violence on television as it is.' make.' As he lists just about every course of action open to the Chancellor, it looks as though he's in favour of a standstill Budget himself, .Dsince anything would be a 'mistake.' But he boldly sets out the odds like a bookie's board and here are a few of his fancies: Tax on motoring Evens Higher Corporation Tax 6 to 4 Gifts tax 8 to 1 (but this horse may be suited by the course and the distance a year hence). Consolidating last November's in- crease in purchase tax 100 to 1 on nominal.
Mr Sergeant's approach is at least honest. For what does anybody know about what's in the Budget? So what's the point of all the paperwork? It has to be read. Did it have to be written? It isn't news. It's a nuisance.
Wednesday. Why did nobody mention potato crisps?
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