The Meaning of the Irish Elections T HE results of the
General Election in the Free State make it necessary for Mr. Cosgrave to decide whether he will change his mind and take office with the help of other parties. We sincerely hope that he Kill do this, as some sort of Coalition under his leadership 'seems to be essential for the peace and development of the country.
It was natural for Mr. Cosgravc before the election to declare that he would not take office unless he had fifty members in his own party. Declarations of that kind May be taken partly as an expression of confidence in the speaker's own cause—without the appearance of confidence a politician could never hope to lead—and partly as an exhortation to his followers to exhaust their efforts in hard electioneering. They arc by no Means a mere whistling to keep up one's courage. There would be no humiliation whatever for Mr. Cosgravc if he decided to go back upon his words. Rather, he would Win renown by putting his pride far below the interests of his country.
The General Election has made it evident that the chief issue is still the- Anglo-Irish Treaty. If the Treaty stands, there will be great hope for the stability and prosperity of the Free State ; if it should be abandoned, or even if its authority should be impaired, hope would sink very low. Mr. Cosgrave is the man above all others who can keep public feeling sound and true for the Treaty. We hope, then, that he will regard the taking of office as nothing less than a duty. We write, of course, with a certain self-interest, as a fresh explosion in Ireland would cause much anxiety and damage in Great Britain ; but our self-interest docs not exclude a perfectly genuine conviction that it would be greatly for the good of the Free State itself that Mr. Cosgrave should carry on.
Proportional Representation tends to produce a multiplicity of parties. It used to be urged as one of the chief - objections to this system that it would be difficult to Work, because the ordinary voter would not understand it. In practice that has turned out to be the least of the objections. The Proportional Repre- sentation of the Free State requires several days for the exact results to be obtained ; but the time would hot in any sense be wasted if the results were worth waiting for. Unfortunately, the present results arc ambiguous, and they may become baffling. There is no clear mandate for anyone—no sharp dividing line on a great issue. This seems bound to happen under all methods of Proportional Representation. It is a Very great pity, and we are bound to say that we are much disappointed, as we used to believe in Proportional Representation and were anxious that it should be tried. In the abstract it is obviously just and reasonable ; it secures representation to minorities which under any other system would be ignored. By virtue of being represented in a Parliament, even a small minority may Make contributions of real value to debates and to the formation of policy. It is sad to have to condemn a system which makes such desirable things possible, but the dominant fact really eaimot be ignored, and that fact is that Proportional Representation does not give one party a plain enough warrant to lead the country along a particular line. All that happens is that some greatest common denominator has to be found that will more or less hold together a variety of groups.
There is no doubt that there is a great Majority for the Treaty, but this is not nearly so clear as one would wish it to be. Some of the parties or groups which arc known to be in favour of the Treaty hardly said anything about it, but built up whatever strength they have by advocating other causes. The meaning of the election is that resistance to the Treaty has failed, and that the Constitution as it stands is not seriously menaced ; but this meaning does not leap to the eye, and so there will be excuses for a good deal of misrepresentation.
Mr. Cosgrave is said to be greatly disappointed at the reduction in the strength of the Government Party, but he must have been an optimist to suppose that he would not lose seats. It is characteristic of the Irish to be against the Government, and ignorant voters who thought that Irish freedom necessarily meant an era of golden prosperity were sure to show their disillusion- ment at the polls. Mr. Cosgrave has played an extremely brave part ; he peacefully disbanded the army which threatened the very existence of the young Free State ; he enforced law and order and checked corruption and inefficiency in large municipalities ; and he defied the powerful drink trade in doing what he thought. necessary in the cause of temperance. These things did him honour, but they did not bring him popularity. Ile has lost more scats than he expected to Mr. De Valera's Republicans, and still more to groups which happen to be sound on the Treaty and the Constitution. lie has lost in particular to the Labour Party, but even the Labour Party may now be said to be attached to the Treaty.
Before the General Election the Government Party had sixty-six seats. The Republicans had forty-seven, though, as everybody knows, they refused to make use of them because they would not take the oath of allegiance. The remaining forty-five seats were divided among the Labour Party, the Farmers' Party, Captain Redmond's National League, and the Independents. Altogether the Government Party had a majority of fifteen over the other Constitutional Parties. When we Write, this majority has become a minority. The Government Party now has forty-five seats, as against Mr. De Valera's Republicans, who have forty- four. Sinn Fein, the party of the implacable Miss MacSwincy, has saved only five seats. It is very satisfactory that the wildest politicians in Ireland have been almost obliterated, but the fact remains that the combined Republicans are stronger than the Govern- ment Party by itself.
By making his refusal .to take the oath of allegiance to the King the subject of most of his speeches, Mr. Dc Valera put the Treaty into the first place as an electoral issue. Under an ordinary electoral system Mr. Cosgravc could successfully have called to his side thousands of voters who felt that nothing mattered in comparison with this issue. As it was, he could not get more than a first preference. No doubt: many electors who recognized what the crux ()I' the election was gave him a first preference who otherwise would have given him only a second or a third. But this is hardly good enough. In brief, Mr. Cosgravc'~ position has been weakened unnecessarily. It has been weakened in order to get benefits which are much less important than the ground which has been yielded in order to get them. If Mr. Cosgravc overlooks Mr. Dc Valera's challenge to the Treaty and declines to take office, the vital issue will probably become further obscured by a fre.;11 splitting up of the parties.
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