The unknown prime minister
Ben Pimlott
Lisbon
Who is Alfredo Nobre da Costa? More iniPortant, what is he? The new Portuguese premier, with a pre-revolutionary background as a top manager and some recent experience as a tough but reticent industry Minister, was hardly a well-known figure before his appointment on 9 August, and among candidates for the job he had not been regarded as more than an outsider. Indeed immediate reaction to the ,announcement was generally one of disbelief: readers of the presidential mind had decided that if an alternative Socialist Party leader could not be found to replace the dismissed Mario Soares, the new prime Minister would probably be a soldier. Few People expected a civilian independent Whose opinions and loyalties remain a mystery to members of the military Revolutionary Council, to party politicians and quite Possibly to the president as well. Nobre da Costa has been described as the businessintkan's choice and perhaps he disappoints ;"e commercial sector least. In fact he is not ni Y non-party, non-tendency and nonPolitical
tieu ; he actually represents no par
lar Portuguese group. No faction is bought off by his appointment. The support of no major interest is assured. If he succeeds in raising a little the political depreSsion that hangs over Portugal, it will be because of his talents not because of his friends.
Will his premiership mean a move to the t P
right? Perhaps: though some had believed Maresident Ramalho Eanes would opt and much more definitely for a right-wing base, 9eseek support from the `gaullist' Social tmocrats, who have been pressing for a yrner lead from the presidential palace at s13,elern. The temptation must have been .1kr.°11 . Portuguese politics has certainly _!ifted awa y from the left since the bizarre alliance in January between the Socialists
and Dr Freitas do Amaral's (conservative) Centre Social Democrats, the collapse of which last month precipitated Soares's fall and the present crisis. It is a sign of the times that one Lisbon paper has recently offered its readers free poster portraits of the late dictator Antonio de Salazar. When Americo Thomaz, President under the old regime, was allowed back from exile, some people did point out that even a Portuguese funeral had been forbidden for his murdered electoral opponent, Humberto Delgado: but Thomaz's homecoming, and the protests, have caused remarkably little stir. The change in the mood and the idiom of Portuguese political debate has been great indeed. This may be reflected in the government which has yet to be formed. In naming Nobre da Costa, Eanes has selected a man who may at least be more acceptable to the newly confident conservatives than Dr Soares. It would be unwise to compose the new premier's obituary prematurely 'interim' appointments can be the most permanent but his main tasks certainly look very short-term; and if he gets the necessary party backing, it is likely to be on a temporary basis only. He will be expected to operate the stringent terms of a recent massive IMF loan, to try to restore some foreign confidence in Portugal's ravaged economy, to see the country through a crucial round of EEC talks, and to take some of the heat out of the row over the restoration of expropriated land which brought the last government down. Finally, and in some ways most critically, it is likely that he will be steering the National Assembly towards a new parliamentary election the third since 1975 in the hope that the present party deadlock may, at last, be broken. Will the electoral card succeed, and produce a stable regime? At present, the chances of any swing of opinion being translated into a landslide at the polls seem small. Portugal's scrupulously fair PR system has the political snag of minimising the effects of shifts in votes. A joint Social Democrat Centre Social Democrat majority in the Assembly is unlikely, and might not produce a workable alliance should it occur. A Socialist government dependent on the Communists given the suspicions the Communists continue to arouse will be as unattractive to the president, and to the majority of socialists, as it is to-day. If the present party lineup two parties of the left, two of the right, but no reliable majority, and no dependable alliance, available for anybody repeats itself, then Italian-style politics, with government crises every few months, may continue as long as the political system can take the strain.
From this could emerge indeed is emerging already an ever more prominent president and presidency. Not long ago, Eanes was as unknown as his new prime minister, with a military reputation based on a cool head and some decisive action in the confrontation with the ultra left of 25 November 1975, but with almost no political reputation at all. Now the president unsmiling, remote, aloof remains an enigma: but he is also seen as a man of discipline and consistency in chaotic and uncertain times, and one who commands respect, if not warmth, at all levels: the contrast with his unelected predecessor, President Francisco da Costa Gomes, known as 'the cork' because of his eagerness to bob with the tide, could not be more marked. Eanes has shrewdly avoided party entanglements, and held back from an executive role. But he has collected some astute aides around him, and has shown himself as much more than. a political cypher -both the sacking of Soares, and the appointment of Nobre da Costa, are demonstrations of his readiness to use his powers. His authority is increased, and that of the parties diminished, by quarrelling politicians. The harder the political arithmetic becomes, and the more frequent the changes, the more the people, and the administration, will look to his office for continuity.
His immediate concern, however, is to see a government formed, and there has been a notable lack of enthusiasm among possible participants. Indeed the president only just avoided an unfortunate anniversary. Almost exactly three years ago, in August 1975, a government was appointed by Costa Gomes which received so little support among political and military leaders that it was virtually still-born. There followed three months of anarchy in the most literal sense of that word. History is unlikely to repeat itself, but if the government of Alfredo Nobre da Costa the third since the adoption of a democratic constitution in 1976 and the ninth since the coup d'etat of April 1974is not given at least an initial chance by the party leaders, then Portugal's new and fragile institutions will not emerge unscathed.
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