1 APRIL 1995, Page 6

POLITICS

Ho, hum; our democracy teeters again on the lip of another great Tory putsch

BORIS JOHNSON

Aa piece of political theatre, the John Major leadership crisis is now approaching its canonical form. After several perfor- mances over the last two years, the stock themes of this drama will be familiar to you all. Let me tick off the elements today, as our democracy, or at least so we are told on all sides, teeters again on the lip of another Great Tory Putsch.

Mr Edward Leigh MP is again running around collecting names of the 30-odd mal- contents necessary under Tory rules to start a leadership challenge. Once again, the conspirators predict that the ambush will be sprung in the wake of certain specified future Tory disasters, the scale of which causes them to wet their lips in anticipa- tion. Over the last couple of years, the expected flashpoints have tended to be calamitous by-elections or well-flagged and abysmal opinion polls. Now the hopes of the anti-Majorites are fixed upon the May local authority elections for the non- metropolitan areas, where they say the Tories stand to lose about 1,000 seats.

Those who wish the Prime Minister ill note that local newspapers are already car- rying interviews from Tory councillors say- ing, 'If I lose my seat, it's John Major's fault.' The atmosphere of terror will be thickened, we are told, by the publication of the Scott Report on the sale of arms to Iraq, which is thought likely to spell the end of a brace of Cabinet ministers.

Once again, the identity of the stalking- horse is much debated. Norman Lamont has apparently ruled himself out. Teresa is still there, fingering her sequinned dagger. The more real it all seems, finally, the more detailed the renewed speculation about the most likely beneficiary of Mr Major's downfall, and the exact state of Michael Heseltine's heart.

First MP: 'Apparently he could keel over from one minute to the next.' Second MP (authoritatively): 'No no, they didn't even open him up in Venice. Angioplasty, you know.'

The Heseltine bandwagon is rumbling, as it has rumbled before. The President of the Board of Trade is becoming ever more ingenious in practising what appears to be his personal maxim of omnia omnibus. To the Tory Left, he remains one of the few committed Euro-enthusiasts in the upper reaches of Government. To the Right, he signals that he thinks Messrs Lilley and Portillo would be distinguished and wel- come members of the Heseltine Cabinet. To those who ask in wonderment whatever happened to his European principles, he says he has always been a 'Nationalist' European, whatever that may be.

Some even say he cultivates ambiguity about the durability of those critical myocardial muscles. To the Hezza fans, whose only hesitation concerns his health, Mr Heseltine has been heard to boast that he 'has the arteries of a 40-year-old'. To the Portillo-ites, on the other hand, who would have him as leader on the strict under- standing that his doctors order him off after a couple of years to make way for the young firebrand, Heseltine's allies, it is alleged, have shown a studious vagueness about the prognosis.

Supposing Mr Heseltine is unsuccessful on his second attempt to wrest the crown, the same old names are touted as in previ- ous Major leadership crises, and the same judgments are made upon them. Michael Portillo: too young, too inexperienced. David Hunt: get out of here. Jonathan Aitken: more skeletons than a ghost train. Gillian Shephard, who is being assiduously talked up by a certain ex-Cabinet minister: a safe pair of hands, a nice pair of eye- brows, perhaps, but no prime minister. Ian Lang's name crops up in a half-hearted way.

Yes, we have been here before, so many times. What allegedly makes this Major leadership 'crisis' different is that the Tories are now entering, more or less with the publication of this issue of The Specta- tor, the last two years before the next elec- tion. So bad are the polls that no seat can 'It's definitely free-range, I've found it's passport!' be called safe unless it is one in which the Tories last time achieved 50 per cent of the vote or more. The Labour tide is even lap- ping about the feet of men like Sir Marcus Fox, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee who would, in theory, lead the deputation telling the Prime Minister to be gone. Even Sir Marcus' monumental loyalty might be eroded by the prospect of losing Shipley.

But will he revolt? Will he really put the black spot on Major on behalf of the funk- ridden backbenchers? Let us, in conclusion, examine the logic that might or might not lie behind a change of leader. It is doubtful that anyone, in present circumstances, could unify the party over Europe, at least without bloodshed. Mr Heseltine remains in favour of the Single Currency, while those other right-wingers he would appar- ently welcome to his Cabinet are implaca- bly opposed. Mr Heseltine, moreover, would be in no position to offer a more adventurous legislative agenda. The Gov- ernment's difficulties over privatising the Post Office would not be ended by moving Mr Heseltine from Victoria Street to Downing Street. In truth, the only advan- tage of Mr Heseltine over Mr Major is style.

By installing Heseltine, and benefiting from the undoubted spell-weaving talents he retains, the Tories presumably hope to save a few of their own seats and their £33,000 salaries as MPs, even if they cannot save the election. The idea is that the rout would be contained. As a recent poll indi- cated, however, popular impatience with the Tories goes beyond any particular lead- er. It is almost certainly true that the Tories would lose were they led by someone com- bining the personal integrity of Mahatma Gandhi with the leadership skills of Alexander the Great.

It would give us all pleasure, as journal- ists, to report that a convulsion is really at hand. As a story, it would be more exciting than what now passes for government. And one feels professionally obliged at this point to insert a get-out clause saying that, naturally, anything can happen. Perhaps Mr Major will indeed be toppled this year. Looking at the dramaturgy of past Major leadership crises, though, I would not count on it.

Boris Johnson is assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph.