Trendy
TRY this way of thinking on Barclays de Zoete Wedd and you find that they see no trouble with prosperity at all. In fact, they rather enjoy it. Their annual Equity-Gilt Study, which traces investments in British markets back to 1918, looks determinedly upon the bright side. Yes, it says, British shares are overvalued, but they can keep this up: The concept of value changes over time.' What matters, to BZW's minds, is not what the shares may inherently be worth but in what direction their prices are moving. This style of investment analysis was pioneered in the French revolution: `The mob is in the streets, and I must see which way they are going, for I am their leader.' Values change as the perceptions of risks and rewards change, and when those perceptions change abruptly, markets turn. Ours turned ten years ago, wrong- footing BZW, but on their charts that fall is no more than a hiccup in the long rising trend which they trace back to 1981. How long does a trend go on? Until it stops.
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