NEWS OF THE WEEK.
THE outlook of foreign affairs is gloomy. Greece has been nearly crushed, and even if Turkey grants endurable terms, the Sultan, elated with his victories, and strong in the support of his Generals, is not likely to accept any reforms he does not approve. Rumours are pouring in to Constantinople from the Armenian districts of coming disturbances, and if they end in another massacre the Powers will hardly be able to menace Abd-nl-Hamid, who, when unmenaced, cares nothing for their opinions. His own people consider him one of the most successful of Sovereigns, and propose to call him Abd-ul- Hamid Ghazee,—that is, the victorious. The tendency to attribute the outbreak of war to England rapidly increases, some publicists even declaring that we have supplied Athens with money, taken, we suppose, by stealth out of the duty on currants. The German Emperor is credited with a project for uniting the whole Continent in a war with England, which —says one scribe supposed to be inspired—" could afford to each Power engaged a magnificent compensation." The league, that is, is to be one avowedly for plunder. There is better reason for believing that William II. still hankers after South Africa, and is egging on Portugal to make con- cessions in Mozambique to the Boer Government. He is almost as formidable an enemy as Napoleon, and we do not feel sure that be will not ultimately succeed in organising a coalition of some kind, the motto of which will be "Delenda est Carthago." Let us hope that we may find a more fortunate Hannibal, and meanwhile see that every ship and battery and regiment is not only existing but efficient. We shall not have a long warning if a crisis comes.
Our gloomy prognostication of last week has been fulfilled. The Turkish army is superior to the Greek army in numbers, in discipline, and in the organisation which ensures victory, and when that is the case the courage of the defenders, the goodness of their cause, and the badness of their enemies' make no manner of difference. Edhem Pasha struck as soon as he was ready, and on Saturday marched his troops from Nezzero on the left, Malouna in the centre, and Reveni on the right, his plan being to effect a junction of his three columns between Turnovo and Larissa, and thus envelop, perhaps capture, the entire Greek army. He Bays himself he fully expected to take the Duke of Sparta prisoner, but the atterwas warned in time, and ordered a general retreat through Larissa to Phareala, almost on the frontier. The retreat, as was natural with inexperienced troops, soon became a rout. The bewildered civil population joined in the flight, there were the usual hideous scenes of men and women trampled down, and only a third of the army reached Pharsala in good order. There appears to have been no lack either of courage or of willingness to fight, but of the competence which
makes of an armed crowd an army there was no evidence whatever.
It is believed, but is not yet certain, that Volo, the port of Thessaly, has fallen, and the position would appear to be this. Edhem Pasha is nearly master of the whole province, and will soon attempt to disperse the Greek army at Phareala. That army is being reformed by the new Ministry, and will be joined, if there is time, by the troops retreating from Epirus and by masses of volunteers; but it is dispirited, nnprovided with sufficient artillery, and with no General in whom the soldiers can confide. It is almost certain, therefore, that it cannot hold its ground, but must retreat into the gorges of the Othrys, where the Greeks, who understand mountain warfare, may make a last, perhaps an effectual, stand. Battle in the open has become hopeless, unless, indeed, the Greeks should suddenly develop a great General, and it is doubtful if it will be so much as tried. A resolute defence is all the more improbable because the Greeks are not really in despair, but think the Powers will protect them, which is doubtful, and that the Sultan will be moderate, which is more probable. If the campaign is brief, Abd-nl-Hamid will have gained enormously, and he does not want to waste money which, if spent on the army, cannot be spent upon the Palace. A long desultory guerilla war is the only chance for the Greeks, and they probably will not try it.
The news of defeat created fierce excitement in Athens, and at first it seems clear the popular leaders thought of revolu- tion. A steamer was made ready to convey the Royal Family to a place of safety. The King, however, showed sense, as he usually does. He asked M. Delyannis to resign, and on his refusal, dismissed him, and summoned M. Ralli, thus en- trusting the Government to the chief of the Revolutionary party. M. Ralli, being granted a free hand, accepted office, and will at all events have as much power as he would have had if the King had departed. His policy, he says, is to re- organise the army, which is difficult in the face of a victorious foe, and for the rest he will take from day to day whatever strikes him as the wisest course. If peace is resolved on, the King can, of course, help to obtain good terms, the "despots" who are just now masters of Europe being greatly concerned to protect the "monarchical principle." No one seems to know the real character of M. Ralli, but he has the con- fidence of the Athenians, he has distinct views as to the selec- tion of officers, and as usual "in the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is King." We confess to very little hope, but events very often stultify calculation.
The Sultan has apparently learned one thing from the Armenian agitation,—viz., that Europe disapproves massacre. He has accordingly issued the strictest orders to his Generale to prohibit anything of the kind, and he is of course obeyed, as he would have been obeyed if he had prohibited the massacre of Armenians. The Generals evidently catch the spirit of the situation, and if we mistake not, there is a good deal of pressure on correspondents to report that they are maintaining order. The correspondents of course report any truth willingly enough, but sometimes they show a little too much zeal. Renter's man, for example, telegraphs from Larissa on April 26th the following delicious statement :— " The long, straight road was full of Turkish soldiers singing and rejoicing over the success of their arms, and discussing in pitying tones the discomfiture of the enemy." Just imagine soldiers hot from battle, and those Turkish soldiers, " discussing " their victory with hearts full of pity for their enemies' defeat. We shall bear very soon that Turks cut up Armenians with tears in their eyes, and tortured priests with hearts full of melancholy and remorse.
There is, of course, much talk of European intervention, but as yet there is no sign of it. England and France would intervene willingly, but Germany—Prince Bismarck in particular through his Hamburg organ—thinks the Greeks not punished enough yet, the Emperor of Austria desires a weak Greece in fear of a Balkan federation, and Russia would rather see all parties a little more exhausted. All three, however, are anxious that Greece should not be a Republic. It is said that the bases of peace, if it is made, will be the surrender of Crete to the Powers, that is, for a few days at all events, to the Turkish garrison, and the payment of an indemnity, for which the revenues of Thessaly will be specially pledged. It is added, but we do not believe, that Greece is to make some special contract for the full payment of her German bondholders,—that is, in fact, for the fall payment of every- body, as all bonds would be instantly sold to German specu- lators. That is nonsense, but the statement shows how completely men believe that the German Emperor is ruling the situation.
The Austrian Emperor arrived in St. Petersburg on the 27th inst., and was welcomed at the railway-station by the Czar in person and all the Russian Grand Dukes. The Austrian Monarch, who was accompanied by his Chancellor, Count Goluchowski, was entertained in the evening at a grand banquet, during which the Czar delivered a speech in which he pointedly thanked his guest for a "friendship cemented by a community of views and principles which tend to assure the benefits of peace to our peoples." His guest replied, acknowledging that his reception had been affectionate and cordial, and declaring that the strict friendship which bound them, and "which was based upon sentiments of esteem and reciprocal loyalty, constituted for their peoples a solid guarantee of peace and of wellbeing." The Austrian and German papers are very anxious to show that these words do not point to an alliance of the three Emperors; but if Austria is bound to Russia, and Germany to Austria, the distinction becomes rather metaphysical. Its object is, of course, to convince France that she is not left out in the cold; but somehow France seems a little dubious, and we fancy if M. Faure does journey to St. Petersburg attentions will be showered on him in profusion.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer opened the Budget on Thursday afternoon. After congratulating the House on the flourishing state of trade, in spite of the war-clouds, he gave the facts of the Budget as follows. Last year he estimated the Revenue at 2100,480,000, the Expenditure at £100,046,000; Surplus, 2434,000. Since, however, "our people have smoked and drunk more, have earned more money, paid more Income- tax, and written more letters, and last, but not least, have paid more Death-duties," and since, also, the Government has spent more, the actual Revenue has been 2103,950,000, and the actual Expenditure 2101,477,000. Thus the realised Surplus, which goes now towards defraying the cost of military works, and not to cancel Debt, has been 22,473,000. If the estimated Expenditure had not been so mach increased the Surplus would have been 23,470,000.
For the coming year (1897-98) the Chancellor of the Exchequer makes the following estimates in regard to Revenue and -Fixpenditnre, the Revenue estimate being based on the existing scale of taxation :—
Revenue ••• ••• •••
• e• •••
£103,360,000 Expenditure ... ••• ••• ... 101,791,000 Surplus £1,569,000 It might be supposed that this would enable him to reduce taxes by, say, a million and a half. He holds, however, this to be impossible, as he is called upon to spend an extra 2500,000 on the Navy, in order to maintain the balance of naval power threatened by certain naval programmes in foreign 1tates, and an extra 2200,000 on increasing our garrisons in South Africa, an increase required by the tension between this country and the Transvaal. These items allowed for, there is not a sufficient margin left for the reduction of taxation. Accordingly he intends to devote 2366,000 to cheapening the letters and parcels post, and to increasing the facilities in regard to the delivery of letters and telegrams. (The details as to those changes are given by us elsewhere.) The remainder
of the Surplus is to go to grants to Scotch and Irish educa- tion, and to providing a margin for contingencies.
The facts stated by the Chancellor of the Exchequer as to the details of Revenue and Expenditure were not of a very striking kind. He mentioned, however, that the Income-tax was got in with special ease, that for some unac- countable reason there had been a run on rum — fact which knocks on the head the theory that it is a low thermometer which leads to rum drinking— that the Agricultural Rating Act had led to an actual expenditure, not of 22,000,000, as Sir William Harcourt always asserted, but only to one of 21,664,000, and that the National Debt had been reduced during the year by 27,584,000. Sir Michael Hicks-Beach, in view of the Jubilee, gave an interesting comparison between the Revenue and Expenditure as it was sixty years ago and as it is now. In 1836 the total Revenue was 252,500,000. It was in the year just closed 2112,000,000,—this includes, of course, the sums collected by the Imperial Government but paid over to local authorities. In 1836 the Expenditure was 250,500,000; last year it was 2109,750,000,—ineluding, of course, the grants in aid of rates. We cannot, however, deal with the rest of this curious comparison, and can only add that the Budget speech was on the whole an interesting one.
On Saturday last was published a very important Blue- book dealing with South Africa. The papers of most im- portance are two despatches—dealt with by us at length elsewhere—addressed by Mr. Chamberlain to Lord Rosmead, telling him to draw the attention of the Transvaal Govern- ment to certain breaches of the Convention committed by them. Under the Convention it is ultra vires for the Trans- vaal (1) to treat any white persons who enter the Transvaal on a different footing from full citizens, in regard to person or property, or to prevent such persons entering the country freely and living there; (2) to conclude treaties with foreign Powers without submitting them to the approval of the British Government. Mr. Chamberlain points out, and, we fear, without possibility of contradiction, that the Aliens Immigration Act, and also two other Acts, lately passed by the Transvaal Government, are breaches of the Convention._ He also shows that the failure to submit no less than three treaties for approval is also a breach. The despatch closes with something which is very like an ultimatum. We regard the notion of war with the Transvaal with special detestation, though we do not dread it in the least from a military point of view. At the same time, it is absolutely necessary to pre- vent the Convention being whittled away by repeated breaches which, though petty in themselves, are nevertheless just as good precedents as substantial infringements.
The debate in the Cape Parliament on Mr. Du Toles Motion, which has been long and bitter, closed on Tuesday in a manner somewhat unexpected. The first step was the negativing of Mr. Rose-Innes's amendment demanding merely the enforcement of the London Convention. Against this Motion the Government voted, and it was lost by 41 to 32. The original Motion, which was a general one in favour of conciliation and the observance of treaties, was then carried by 41 to 32, but enforced by Mr. Abrahamson's amendment condemning the intervention of any foreign Power in disputes between Great Britain and the Transvaal. The voting was, it is said, strictly on racial lines, except that the Ministry went with the Dutch party. Mr. Rhodes voted in the minority,—a curious comment on the boast that the instant he re-entered the Cape Parliament he would have a majority at his personal disposal. Considering the strong speeches made by the Ministet s against the Transvaal, it is difficult to see why they in the end refused to vote for Mr. Rose-Innes's Motion,—probably some local causes were at work. On the whole, we regard the vote with satisfaction. The worst thing that can happen at the Cape is the emphasising of race antagonism. After Tuesday's vote Sir Gordon Sprigg's Ministry cannot be accused of hostility to the Dutch.
Though the Budget speech was not sensational, the same cannot be said of the debate which followed. After a few perfunctory financial criticisms Sir William Harcourt fell
apon Sir Michael Hicks-Beach's statement in regard to the £200,000 asked for the South African garrisons, and attempted to show that the Government were adopting a war policy in South Africa. Mr. Chamberlain had, he declared, "in every utterance of his during the last few months, been endeavouring to exasperate sentiment in South Africa, and to produce what, thank God, he has failed in producing,—a racial war." His policy, however, had been defeated by the good sense and good feeling of the Cape Colony, and the vote taken the other day was a vote condemning a war policy. The Opposition would offer a most determined resistance to money being spent on promoting aggressive and warlike policies in South Africa which had been rejected by the Cape Parliament. The result of this heated attack was to bring up Mr. Chamberlain, who denounced Sir William Harcourt's attitude as unpatriotic and likely to injure the cause of peace. The policy of the Government was what it had always been,—to maintain the Convention, and not to engage in any aggressive operations whatever. Was the Opposition prepared to say that the obligations of the Transvaal need not be maintained ? The Government desired to act peacefully and with conciliation. The Cape Parliament pronounced in favour of the obligations on both aides being observed. We had not complained when the Boers armed, and they could not complain if we sent a brigade of artillery and a single regiment.
Other speakers followed, including Sir Charles Dilke and Mr. Courtney. Finally Mr. Balfour poured oil upon the troubled waters in a speech in which he very truly remarked that he could not imagine two speeches more htely to injure the cause of peace than those of Sir William Harcourt and Mr. Courtney. Instead of accepting frankly the statement of the Government, that the troops were sent out of pre- caution alone, and merely to maintain admitted rights, and that they would regard war with the Transvaal not merely as a national, but as a party, disaster, Mr. Courtney had done his best by his speech to hide this fact from the public. If only the House and the country would accept his (Mr. Balfour's) statement of the policy of the Government, something would bare been done to promote the cause of peace. Sir William Harcourt on this rose, and to some extent modified his tone and welcomed Mr. Balfour's "healing words." This, however, could not prevent the ill effects of the original outburst, which, in our opinion, was most ill-timed. If Sir William Harcourt was prepared to give up the Convention altogether we could understand his attitude. As it is, he is simply increasing the chances of war. We are probably a good deal more opposed to Mr. Rhodes than is Sir William Harcourt—at any rate our opposition has been much more consistent—but because we detest Mr. Rhodes's policy we are not going to give up the Convention and jeopardise the whole future of South Africa.
The Americans devoted Tuesday to a ceremonial in honour of General Grant, whose remains have been conveyed to a mausoleum built for them on a promontory in the neighbour- hood of New York. The mausoleum itself, according to the New York correspondent of the Times, is a failure. It is built of marble, a cube surmounted by a pillared dome and that again by a marble canopy, is 150 ft. high, stands on a noble elevation, and cost "half a million" (P sterling); but its effect is not imposing. -Under the dome rests the sarco- phagus of red granite, much like the one in the Hotel des Invalides. The ceremonial was a splendid one, the President being present, the ex-President, all the Governors of the States, all the Ambassadors, representatives from the House and Senate, a crowd of distinguished visitors, and three hundred thousand New Yorkers, who must not there be described as the mob, but only as the multitude. The war- vessels in the harbour fired salutes, the President made a short speech and General Porter a long one, and the cere- monies ended with a march-past of the military, which was going on when the despatch left, and would go on for hours, making one wonder whether a social geniis will ever devise a scheme which will deprive a ceremonial of the stately kind of its intolerable element of tediousness. It is right for the Republic to honour the General who preserved her malty, and a mausoleum is as good a national tribute as any other; but to our mind the best monument to General Grant is the clause in the Constitution which prohibits slavery, and which but for his sword could not have been inserted. Dr. Peters, the German explorer and official who was accused of using the powers with whioh he was invested as Chief Commissioner of German East Africa to execute a negro who had given him cause for jealousy, was on Saturday condemned by the Disciplinary Court in Berlin which tries colonial offences. It was shown that he had ordered negro girls to be whipped almost to death, and had hanged one for running away, and had even been guilty of the far more heinous crime of misrepresenting the affair to his superiors. The Court, therefore, sentenced him to be dismissed the service and to pay the costs of the suit. Herr Bebel, the Socialist leader, indignant at this lenity, demanded in the Reichstag that the offender should be criminally prosecuted. Herr von Boetticher, Secretary of State, promised to inquire into the possibility of such a proceeding, but intimated his own belief that Dr. Carl Peters was at the time on practically foreign soil, that he must be judged according to the laws of that soil, and that a native chief of Kilimandjaro would probably have behaved just as he did! The truth of the matter is, we suppose, that the Imperial Government intends its agents in Africa to be absolute, and will not impair their authority by punishing a man who has misused his despotic powers.. That is the system by which insurrections are bred.
The Metropolitan Railway has again been the scene of one of those apparently motiveless crimes which suggest the presence among us of men who are half imps, half murderers. At 7 o'clock on the evening of Monday, as a train rolled slowly into Aldersgate Station, an explosion occurred in an empty first-class carriage, which wrecked the carriage, drove part of its woodwork into the roof of the station, and injured ten persons who were standing on the platform, one of them, a workman named Pitts, dying shortly after. The explosion was at first attributed to the gas with which the train is lighted ; but the gas-cylinder was found to be intact, and from the direction of the blows, one of which was downwards, the experts who examined the carriage had no doubt that the explosive used was dynamite. Some one who left the train at Farringdon Street had placed on the seat a parcel of dynamite with a slow-burning fuse in it, and probably hoped to wreck the tunnel as well as the carriage. In the absence of apparent motive the crime is attributed to Anarchists, either foreign or Irish-A.merioan ; but it is not quite impossible that it was committed in vengeance for some injury suffered by dismissed employ& of the railway itself. The intention seems to have been to avoid murder, but the time-fuse burned a little too long. We have not the power to arrest known Anarchists on Jubilee Day, as the Continental police would, but if they were all "shadowed" for twenty-four hours London would be much the safer.
On Tuesday Sir H. Vincent raised another of those tire- some and aimless little debates on Fair-trade with which Parliament has been familiar during the last few years. He wished to levy a toll of 10 per cent. ad valorem, on all manu- factured goods, and 5 per cent, on partly manufactured articles, for the benefit of the displaced British labour,—the exact form being an Old Age Pensions Fund. To enforce this grotesque proposal all the old dreary paradoxes were paraded, and we were told once again that Mr. Cobden and Mr. Bright never dreamt of the wholesale entry of foreign goods which was now going on. The duty he proposed would yield over £6,500,000. Mr. Balfour made an excellent answer, urging the sound and true answer to the complaint that the value of our imports exceeds our exports. If foreign nations appear to send us more than we send them, it is because they owe us a great deal as a creditor nation. There must be a balance, or else we should go bankrupt. Hence an increase in our exports must mean either an increase in our imports or less payment on the debts due to us. Our real point of danger is competition in neutral markets. But we shall not help our manufacturers to compete in neutral markets by swaddling them in protective tariffs. Mr. Balfour, at the end of his speech, touched on the question of old-age pensions, but only to say that the Government had not given up the hope of dealing with the matter.
Bank Rate, 2-1- per cent.
New Consols (2!) were on Friday, 1121.
