COLLISION COURSE
SHL—Your leading article last week suggests drastic measures in the event of a unilateral declaration of independence by Southern Rhodesia—sanctions against their exports, and the withdrawal of Com- monwealth preferences.
Both these would affect tobacco, which is, of course. our main import from that country. As far as sanctions are concerned, I doubt whether the 'Government would have statutory authority to pre- vent tobacco companies—who are, after all, the actual purchasers--from obtaining their supplies from Southern Rhodesia if they so wish. Further- more, it has taken twenty-five years to wean the taste of the British cigarette-smoker away from American tobacco. Even if we can obtain sufficient from dollar sources to fill the gap, such a policy would, no doubt, have a serious effect on our dollar reserves.
We can, however, remove their Commonwealth preferences. In so far as this would again affect mainly the tobacco crop, this would be of doubtful advantage. Moreover. any such action would prob- ably be reciprocated by the Southern Rhodesian Government to the considerable benefit of German, Japanese and South African manufacturers who are our main competitors in this market.
Sanctions, surely, are a two-edged weapon and it is to be hoped that any action we take would be more carefully thought out.
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