THE TRUE CAUSE OF THE FAILURE OF ARBITRATION.
" THERE'S a deal of human nature in man," said the wise American jester, and it would be well if sanguine politicians more often remembered the truth. They are suffering just now from forgetting it, to such a degree that there is some danger of a sharp and most injurious reaction against philanthropic effort in politics. We can imagine even Mr. Hodgson Pratt, who has fought the battle of peace for nearly forty years, being reduced to despair by the irritating perversity of mankind. Look at the real history of this American Arbitration Treaty. It was accepted by both Governments amidst a chorus of gratulation ; no statesman since it was signed has con- demned its provisions ; and yet it now seems almost certain that it will never be ratified, or only ratified with an amendment which reduces it to a useless and rather childish formula of goodwill. The consent of a representa- tive body, the American Senate, is required, and it seems clear, after weeks of discussion, that it is not to be obtained. The impulse which framed the Treaty has died away under the pressure of the human nature in American Senators and those who send them up to exercise power at Washington. They plead this reason and that reason, the badness of Britain, the sacredness of the Monroe doctrine, the iniquity of the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty as to the Nicaragua Canal, the necessity of retaining some power of annoyance in order to rehabilitate silver, and so on and so on, but their true reason is their reluctance to give up their freedom to do wrong. They can arbitrate, they think, when they want to arbitrate, and when they do not the Treaty will be a bore and a restraint. They are. like some total abstainers in Australia who quite allow that whisky is very dangerous, who intend to drink tes. all their lives, and who very often do drink tea steadily till they die, but who absolutely refuse to take any pledge because, as they say, they might want some day just for once to "go on the burst." The Senators might wish for war and not peace, and though every man of them holds peace to be much the better thing, and a majority even. concede that wax is somehow criminal, still they are not going to create an obstacle in the way of their wishes. They feel like the old man with a temper who was advised by his minister to make a vow against anger, and said he would do it "as soon as the jibbing mare was deal" They are excellent average people, but they recognise a certain " cussedness " in themselves, and are determined. that if it explodes it shall have room. And so a Treaty which, wise or foolish, was at least a strong declaration that statesmen hoped for a better way than war, and per- ceived a possibility of finding one, dies of the opposition_ of the average man, who entirely acknowledges that there is a better way, but is not going to be compelled always to pursue it. The good all over the world are horribly disappointed, but the failure is neither unprecedented nor unnatural. As they ought to know by this time, masses of men are seldom governed by sweet reasonableness, and then only for short periods of time. If they were per- manently ruled by it, war would cease, drunkenness would be unknown, and crime would only be committed when it was sure to be profitable,—that is, practically never. There are emotions in races and nations which are like manias, which have scarcely the slightest connection with reason, which all men are more or less ashamed of, yet which are so linked with their natures, that they cannot bear wholly to cut them out. But for that Quakerism in its best form would, instead of a dying cult, be a creed held, at all events in theory, by whole nations of Christians ; yet it is pushed aside even by women, nine.. tenths of whom intend all their lives to obey its precepts. Only they will not, even for heaven: take oath thereto.
Precisely the same truth, the existence of human nature in man, is at this moment threatening Europe with untold disasters. No able man, it may fairly be said, at this moment wishes war. The dozen or so of Kings and statesmen who can move armies, or at all events without whose consent armies cannot move, desire peace with a vehemence which on some points clouds their judgments as to the best way to secure it. They do not perceive, for instance, that the swift road to peace is to shell Abd-ul-Hamid out of Yildiz Kiosk. The peoples are shivering everywhere at the very thought of war, and there is nowhere any sign that the military caste, often so impatient of tranquillity, is this time in any hurry to be left in cold nights with broken bones to die unattended even by the doctors who in a modern war cannot preserve, or try to preserve, one shattered limb in three. Six men could, if they liked, set up a Vehmgericht, or Holy Court, from the decisions of which, if they were only tolerably just and wise—say as tolerable and as judicious as the decisions of an average County-court Judge—the world not only could not appeal, but would not wish to appeal, would rather, we have no solid doubt, cover up occasional blunders in newspaper salvoes of applause. Yet, on the whole, the chances are slightly in favour of European war. Those six men are full of human nature, its jealousies, its greeds, its prides, and above all, its suspicions. The six would not for the world set up the Court if they knew. they would always be compelled to abide by its decisions. They want things, and they fear things, and they hope things which induce them, first of all, to leave themselves liberty of action. A prize may offer itself which they cannot "in justice to themselves" resist. An affront may be offered them which "it would humiliate them not to avenge." Events may occur during which "their interests and their traditions would alike require them to act." They are afraid, too, that rivals may prosper ; they have "dynastic preoccupations,' and they have, occasionally at all events, strong fears as to military opinion. They are, in fact, full of the ordinary feelings of ordinary men, and so are their peoples, who, sometimes wiser than the Kings, are just now probably less wise. They are certainly more jealous, more greedy of commercial advantages, and more full of fears lest just at the moment when they are least expecting it, a sudden surge. of feeling in a rival nation should lead to an invasion. They want to keep safe, arbitration or no arbitration ; they want to obtain advantages when they can without being bothered by judicial processes ; and they both dread and dislike the prosperity of their neighbours, especially Great Britain, which seems to them unnaturally lucky. So strong is this latter feeling, which they do not trouble themselves to deny, that there is positively less hatred of England on the Continent because famine and plague have appeared in India, and so reduced our good- fortune more nearly to Continental levels. It is quite impossible for the good and wise to eradicate these feelings, either in Kings or nations, and while they exist, projects, whether of disarmament or arbitration, will always be a little unreal, and hostilities will only be prevented by clear evidence that if they begin they will involve great danger to the beginner. It is risk from a bullet, not from a Court, which stops a marauder, and most Kings and all nations are still, when excited by hope of gain or fear of ruin, potential marauders.
From all which what deduction ? This, we think, that we should go forward even more steadily towards good ends, but that we should hope less from dramatic arrangements, and, above all, that we should not shout over them, whether complete or incomplete, as if they could radically modify the very nature of mankind. That will survive a good many written documents, just as the disposition to drink too much will survive a good many Acts and Proclamations for the discouragement of riotous living. The whole matter of arbitration is very like the question of Education. Education is a capital thing, and every new measure in its behalf will produce some good effect ; but those who believe that in a world which can read, write, and do sums there will be no murders, or crimes of greed, or sins of lust, are hoping only, in an entire ignorance of the great facts of human nature. The educated will murder, forge, and fornicate, just as the arbitrated will fight, and menace, and intrigue. All that can be hoped for is a very gradual and slow advance in the right direction,—an advance which was helped as regards war by the Arbitration Treaty, even though it should never be ratified or published as a valid addition to the documents bearing on international law. And we may also remember that in this, as in every other direction of effort, it is human beings with whom we have to deal, and whom it is important to convert. One King or statesman or nation convinced that war is evil is worth a good many treaties. If Senator Morgan had been a Quaker the Treaty of Arbitration would have been ratified, and if the Emperor of Austria held Moravian opinions there would even now be no prospect of a European war. Just imagine France or Germany holding the opinions about war held by most good Englishmen, and where then would be the European danger ? It is human nature we have to modify, and not any detail of inter- national organisation or law, which at best can only register the general opinion of the majority for that particular generation.
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