20 JULY 1974, Page 3

Chinese uncertainty

The recent illness of Mr Chou En-Lai has emphasised how uncertain is our understanding of modern China, and of her new policy of openness towards the outside world. There is no reason to suppose that the policy on which both Mao Tse-Tung and Chou were agreed—of co-operation with the West with a view to creating a balance of power against Russia — would not continue in the event of the death of the Prime Minister; nor that it was devised for any other reason than the satisfaction of China's interest. But one step backward has always been as integral a part of Maoist political thinking as three steps forward, and a policy created by the now very aged leaders of China might well not be supported by younger successors, especially as negotiations with Russia continue intensively. We must remember the important fact that the result of the Nixon policy towards China, which followed in the wake of the Gaullist policy, is by no means institutionalised yet.