THE PROBLEM OF THE FAMILY
[To the Editor of the SPECTATOR.] SIR,—Mr. Pa misunderstands me as saying that there was no decline in fertility before the Knowlton trial. What I do say is that the great decline started about then and received an immense impetus as a result of the public controversy preceding and following that trial. Here the figures tell their own tale. The annual average birth rate between the period 1851-5 was 33.9 ; in 1871-5, just before the controversy, it was 35.5 ; to-day it is 18.3. A subject which, up to then, had been comparatively little known, became a matter of public discussion everywhere.
Mr. Pell argues that the decline has been mainly brought about, not by artificial means, but as a result of the fall in the death rate, due to the increased care for public health. This; if true, would be a very dreadful thing, because it would mean that the healthier we are, the more our race declines. But it is not true. The overwhelming verdict of medical and social investigators is that the main—although by no means the only—factor is the voluntary rest, htion of births. This was the view, for example, of the National Birth Rate Commission, after long investigation of all avail- able evidence. Dr. Carr-Saunders, generally accepted as an outstanding authority, goes so far as to say, " It is probable that they (the use of artificial means) account for the whole of the decline which the figures show."
I do not propose at this stage to follow Mr. Pell into his argument from the experience of other countries. But he Should be aware that one of the bloat serious factors in world development to-day cuts right at the root of his theory. In the great nations of the Far East we have a rapid decline of the death rate following the introduction of western sanitary and medical knowledge, while a high birth rate is yet main- tained. This is the most vital problem of Japan. It is equally the problem of Korea, where the birth rate—under the sanitary measures introduced by the Japanese administration —has risen from 27.71 in 1920 to 40.69 in 1913, while the death rate has fallen in the same time from 23.35 to 20.60.- I am, Sir, &c.,
7 Duke Street, Adelphi, WI:. 2.
F. A. MACKENZIE.
Previous page
