The View from the UN
ARNOLD VAS DIAS writes from New York:
The thirty-eighth floor of the UN Secretariat building, where the Secretary-General and his group of close advisers follow the Cyprus situa- tion, is more akin to an observation post at the moment than to a closely-knit headquarters. The scene shifts from the Security Council to Geneva; Ankara, Athens. London and Washing- ton are immediately involved and Archbishop Makarios seems ever ready to spring surprises. The news of Mr. Tuomioja's illness just as it appeared he might be reaching a settlement was received with the greatest sadness.
In UN circles whatever sympathy was felt for the President of Cyprus has considerably cooled off; in Washington he is regarded as the chief obstacle to a settlement. It is recognised that Makarios's clinging to power methods is the determining element in what has been and may still be happening in Cyprus. With his appeal to the Soviet Union and the United Arab Re- public for military aid, he introduced a new factor in his game of power-politics. The opinion prevails that Moscow has no great desire to be- come involved, but it is not held with any great certainty.
Yet Makarios's threat of Greek military in- tervention did not materialise. The reserved reactions to his appeals and threats have, as the New York Times pointedly remarked, signifi- cantly eroded the Archbishop's power to resist a reasonable settlement; it may be doubted whether Makarios with his recent action has played a trump card. Many qualified observers believe it may well be that the opinion he expressed not long ago—namely, that the issue of Cyprus has arrived in its last phase—will be confirmed, but not in the way he expected, Meanwhile, there is growing interest in the possible future role of General Grivas.
But the news from Geneva and Ankara is a little more hopeful and the outlook for a long- term diplomatic and political solution seems to have improved, although an agreement may still be a long time off. It has been stated in dispatches from Ankara that the Turks now con- sider the `drawing-board suggestions' put for- ward by President Johnson's special representa- tive Dean Acheson as worth being taken as a basis for further negotiation. These are not the only formulas which are being considered, but most of them have in common that for a solu- tion they look to union of Cyprus with Greece.
The UN position can be summarised as follows: The Security Council stands ready to recon- vene at short notice; the Council has not adjourned, but only suspended its meeting.
The UN mediator, Sakari S. Tuomioja of Finland, was not an emissary of the Secretary- General; he 'stood on his own,' reporting directly to the Security Council, which is why it is so difficult for him to be quickly replaced. How- ever, Mr. Acheson is readily available in Geneva for good advice and his suggestions carry added weight in view of the assumption that they. are backed by the authority of the President of the United States. No official relations were main- tained between Mr. Tuomioja and Mr. Acheson.
Mr. Spinelli has not succeeded Mr. Tuomioja, but will merely fill in temporarily. The Secretary- General, Mr. Thant, holds strictly to his func-
tion of intermediary between the Council and the parties concerned.
The present strength of the UN peace-keeping force in Cyprus stands at about 6,300. It is being considered to bring the contingent to its full authorised strength of 7,000, but no decision has been taken; no requests for additional troops have been made, either to the countries that have supplied contingents or to other members of the UN.
Archbishop Makarios has voiced his intention to bring the matter up in the next meeting of the General Assembly, which convenes in November. The Prime Minister of Greece, Mr. Papandreou, Sees this recourse to the Assembly as the only remaining peaceful alternative should mediation fail. .This leaves a rather hazardous period of three months for the flames of conflict to break out again. In the meantime, Makarios intends to bring the matter up at the forthcoming meeting of the unaligned nations in Cairo. • All this creates a confusing picture. Even if in the next few months a perilous peace is main- tained, it may well be questioned whether the General Assembly could achieve more than the Security Council, as there arc still no deal in- dications where the majority of the members Stands with regard to the Cyprus question.
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