CENTRAL EUROPE : THE BROKEN TREATY.
THB result of the debates in both Houses of Parliament on the occupation of Cracow is, that Russia, Austria, and Prussia, have manifestly broken the letter of the treaty of Vienna, and that they lie under a heavy suspicion of having violated its spirit also. In other words, they have committed an offence against the com- monwealth of Europe ; and there is great reason to think that they have done this wilfully and maliciously. The treaty of Vienna is the basis on which the present status quo reposes ; and its integrity must be guarded at every point, for on no other terms can the peace of the Continent be preserved. The provisions of the treaty may or may not be the best that could be desired ; some of them are unwillingly submitted to by certain of the con- tracting parties ; but this affords only so much the stronger rea- son for insisting on the scrupulous fulfilment of all the conditions by all parties. If the treaty is faulty, then let it be remedied by a general congress ; but, meanwhile, no power can presume to -violate it without virtually becoming the common enemy of con- federated Europe, and provoking retaliations of the most formid- able nature. In a word, the strenuous interposition of the Go- vernments of France and England on behalf of the independence of Cracow is called for not only on the grounds of generous sym- pathy for the weak and oppressed remnant of an illustrious na- tion, but likewise as necessary to the quiet and security of them- selves and their allies. The sum and substance of the matter was most cogently expressed by Lord Palmerston in the following memorable words- " I must say, that if there are any Powers, parties to that treaty, who have the strongest interest that the settlement of Europe which was effected by the treaty of Vienna should be maintained, those Powers undoubtedly are the Powers; of Ger- many; and it cannot have escaped, I am sure, the sagacity of those who govern those countries, that if the treaty of Vienna be not good on the Vistula, it may be equally bad on the Rhine and on the Po."
Have Prussia and Austria nothing to apprehend from these two quarters ? Are they so perfectly secure against all danger from without and from within that they can afford to tamper with the common bond of peace? The facts are directly the reverse. The internal condition of both those states is in the highest degree uneasy and precarious. Their heterogeneous elements are farther than ever from coalescing ; and nothing seems now more likely than that the outbreak of any general commotion would be speedily followed by the dissolution of the two ill-compacted masses. Their very existence is bound up with that of the treaty of Vienna. Austria has but five or six millions of German sub- jects to match against its thirty-one millions of restless and dis- contented Italians, Magyars, and Sclavonians, who are severally plotting its overthrow, and waiting only a favourable conjuncture of circumstances to effect their purpose. Their zeal, their hopes, and their resources, are augmenting day by day; while those of their Imperial foe are dwindling as rapidly away. The moral force of the Austrian Government is almost gone ; and were it left to fight its own battles single-handed, three-fourths of the bayonets it now commands would perhaps be turned at once against it. How long could it make head against Italy, with
the Magyars, the Poles, and other Sclavonians, assaulting it on flank and rear ? The Sovereigns of Italy, the King of Sardinia,
the Archduke of Tuscany, the Pope, and the King of Naples, are all heading those commercial and administrative reforms which will soon give Italy the power as well as the will to assert her independence.
The condition of Prussia is not less critical. Her subjects are deeply disaffected, and have probably been hitherto restrained from breaking out into open insurrection only by their want of mutual confidence and of a common national spirit. The Eastern Sclavonic provinces are animated with an intense antipathy to the Government, both because it is German and because it is the timid and obsequious ally of the Czar ; the Rhenish provinces are discontented with their present rulers, and look back with gratitude to France for the laws she bestowed on them ; while part of the centre, unwillingly calling itself Prussian, would gladly revert to Saxony, from which it was severed. It is easy to see what would be the fate of Prussia if matched against France on the banks of the Rhine.
It is mere foolhardiness to assume that we are safe for our day from such a contingency. We have happily escaped it for thirty-one years, not because it was of itself unlikely to occur, but because prudent statesmen have taken assiduous pains to pre- vent it. The event would have happened with the consent and cooperation of Nicholas had Charles the Tenth remained on the throne of France. There will be peace, we trust, as long as Louis Philippe lives ; and his successors will probably endeavour to continue his pacific policy; but they may possibly not be able to do so. However convinced the French may be of the expe- diency of resting content just now with their present limits, there is scarcely a man among them who does not believe in his heart that the Rhine is the natural boundary of France, and that to this limit her territory must and shall be extended. At present the policy of the French middle classes accords with that of their Sovereign ; they feel it is their interest to repress the national ardour for military glory : but there comes a time with men and nations when passion outruns reason, and present interests are sacrificed to speculative advantages. The French are perhaps the most prone of all civilized beings to such aberrations.
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