22 FEBRUARY 1919, Page 20

Political Prophecies. By H. A. L. Fisher. (Clarendon Press. ls.

net.)—Mr. Fisher's very able address before the Edinburgh Philosophical Society deserved reprinting. He surveys the field of prophecy from Polybius to Bloch, and shows that the political prophet is far more often wrong than right. Montefsquieu foresaw the revolt of America. Burke reasoned correctly as to the course of the French Revolution. Renan was a true prophet when in September, 1870, he said that in the next war, which would be a war of races, Great Britain would be found on the side of France. But these are exceptions. Lord Morley declared ten years ago that "Australians could never be reconciled to pay ing fora war undertaken for the defence of Belgian neutrality." Ile was speaking as an advocate against large views of the Empire. The pessimist is an equally unsafe prophet "The jeremiads of Robert Lowe and Thomas Carlyle are pretty reading, but after all we have 'shot Niagara: and are still a flourishing people, not altogether devoid of valour, faith, endurance, charity, and other estimable qualities of hand and heart ; nor, so far as we can see, is the race of heroes entirely extinct upon this planet."