TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE PROSPECT.
OUR first duty, which is also a pleasure, is to con- gratulate the Italians on the splendid skill and courage with which they have withstood the great Austrian att aek. W. iting on Thursday, we feel that whatever may happen in the coming weeks, they have accomplished already one of the great feats of war, which is recovery after reverse. It is easy for an Army to go on in the full flood of success, but to rise again from the depths of a disaster is another matter altogether. The attack of the Austrians has probably been rightly described as the greatest effort they have made during the war. But in spite of all their accumulation of men and material, and in spite of the fact that they have practised the latest and most ingenious German methods of attack, their spirit has not been equal to an encounter with the renovated Italian Army. Though it has not been actually proved that Austria was compelled to make this attack by imperative orders from Berlin, the assumption that she did receive those orders fits in with, and explains, the situation. Austria is never likely to make a more serious bid for victory than she is making now. Her people at home are all at sixes and sevens, firmness of control has relaxed at Vienna, and in many of the Austrian and Hungarian towns the people are clamouring for bread. Moreover, we suspect that the inroads made upon the loyalty—or, since loyalty is probably the wrong word, let us say the compliance or docility—o the Czecho-Slovaks and the Yugo-Slays by means of Italian propaganda have been serious. The weapon which had been used successfully against Italy has been turned against Austria-Hungary. Of course the Italians have been per- fectly right to use this weapon, and there is no doubt that the methods of enticing over some of the Austro-Hungarian troops have been as ingenious as they have been successful. It is one of the curses of this worst and greatest of all wars that the despicable intrigues and trickeries of Germany and her allies have necessarily to be imitated. But what an appalling picture it is, this competition in the arts of seduction ! If Austria fails in her present long-expected Campaign, her disintegration is bound to proceed more rapidly. Her final failure will be the signal for which her various discontented and oppressed racial elements are waiting. Germany came to her help before, but Germany is not likely to be able to do so again. Though the end may not be yet, Austria faces her fate and the increasing resentment of her own people in hopeless loneliness. As regards the fighting in France, it remains as true as ever that every day which passes without an advance by the Germans is a day lust to them and gained by the Allies. It is not enough for Germany to win victories that are not decisive. If she does not get a decision—decisive victory for her means the separation of the French and British Armies, the crushing of one or both of them, and the capture of Paris or the Channel ports—she will have failed in all respects. It must not be pre- tend( d, however, that the whole of the present campaigning searon will not be an exceedingly anxious time for the Allies. Probably we shall not be able to breathe freely till the winter, but every day that passes without a serious further German advance lightens the strain a little and increases hopefulness because the end of the period of endurance and suspense is nearer. Meanwhile the Americans are pouring into France with a rapidity which only optimists in their moments of greatest elation could have predicted. So far as one can see, the American Army in France should grow henceforth at an ever-increasing rate. It is quite well known to those who have to do with the assembling of armies that even when the men and the means of transport are ready from the beginning, the first weeks or months of assembly are necessarily the period of greatest delay. This is because the whole machinery of reception and maintenance has to be created— the framework has to be designed and manufactured. When once that has been done the filling up of the framework with men and material is a much quicker process.
The fourth phase of the German advance of this year has apparently ended, and the total result so far is that the Allied line is some seventy miles longer than it was when the first great German attack began on March 21st. As Sir Frederick Maurice has pointed out in the Daily Chronicle, this lengthening of the line means that from sixteen to eighteen more divisions have to be kept in the front than before the campaign began. This is of course a strain upon General Foch's reserves; but the Germans have also made considerable calls upon their reserves, and in the long run the side which uses its reserves more wisely by throwing them in at the really critical moments will win. The masterly coolness with which General Foch has refused to mistake tight corners for supreme crises has been beyond praise. According to Sir Frederick Maurice's estimate, just before the Crown Prince's attack on May 27th the enemy had seventy divisions in reserve. The Crown Prince has employed at least forty-three of those divisions. This estimate is not at all unflattering to our hopes, but, as Sir Frederick Maurice reminds us, Prince Rupprecht on the British front has been quiet for some time, and we must reckon that he has been able to withdraw for rest, training, and refitment a certain number of divisions. It is also possible that more divisions have been brought from Russia. Altogether, it would not be safe to put the German reserves now fit to take part in another great battle at less than forty divisions. In other words, the Germans might make another attack, at any time and at any point, equal in weight to the Crown Prince's last two efforts combined.
Venturing upon the rashness of prophecy, we would say that the coming winter is certain to be a real turning-point in the war. If the Germans can bring off a great success by land before then, the Allies will be in a worse position geographi- cally than they were at the beginning of the war, and with the help of America we shall have to set to work to rebuild our fortunes. It would be a grim task, but we should certainly undertake it, and ultimately we should win, as we did in similar circumstances in the great French wars. But if, as we hope and firmly believe will happen, the Germans do not bring off a great success before the winter, Germany will be faced by the question whether it is worth while to go on. By that time she will have had to abandon all hope of winning the war, unless indeed she is prepared to carry it on for two or three years while she builds up and trains the man-power which is presumably at her disposal in the new Baltic State (see an article which we print elsewhere) and other parts of Russia. But even the Baltic State would be a questionable source of man-power, and Germany might not think it profit- able to carry on for a doubtful hope while all her industries starved. After all, she is a great commercial country just as much as a great military country. If she decided, however, to follow the will-o'-the-wisp, she would set to work to make another " impenetrable barrier " upon her Western. Front. She would not hope to advance beyond it, but she would hope to hold it intact till the patience or strength of Britain, France, Italy, and America was exhausted. All this lies in the future ; but meanwhile can nothing more than actual fighting be done by the Allies to prepare for these coming days ? Emphati- cally yes. (1) We must, and can, go to the help of Russia. Ways and means mast be left to the Government, but the need is urgent. To help Russia is now the first problem of statesmanship. (2) We ought to make it clear to Germany that however long she carries on the war she will not be allowed to profit by it industrially. The German submarines are being steadily overcome. The control of the sea will certainly remain to the Allies. We have not talked enough about our naval power. Germany ought to be told without delay that she will be excommunicated—cut off from all trade and converse with the outer world by sea—till she comes to her senses.
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