TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE SITUATION.
WE cannot think it possible, even were it advisable, to avoid a Dissolution. The deliberate protraction of the debate on Home-rule, though it may attract attention in the country, and stir up committees to press their representa- tives, has not materially affected the prospects of the great division. Here and there a waverer may be persuaded to vote for Government rather than lose his seat, and now and then a doubting Member may be moved by a new argument ; but the efforts to conciliate seceding groups have failed, the majority on both sides have made up their minds, and early in June at latest the Sovereign must either appeal to the country, or select a statesman to form a new Government. The latter appears to many politicians an easy alternative ; but they overlook some of the essential conditions of success in such an attempt. They forget that neither Lord Salisbury nor Lord Hartington can in this House find a majority, unless he is supported by Tories, Moderates, and Unionist Liberals, who, on any subject except Ireland, will be kept together with the greatest difficulty. They forget that with the voters so excited, the necessary elections consequent on a new Government will involve many of the difficulties of a dissolution, and that members of the new Covernment, how- ever hampered by local dissensions, can appeal for election only to their own constituents. They forget, also, that the Parnellite eighty-six hold themselves entitled, for the sake of Ireland, to use their votes exactly as they please, and that they will use them on every occasion to make government impossible with- out a dissolution. Above all, they forget that Mr. Gladstone, exasperated by the refusal of a dissolution, will be sitting in the House head and shoulders taller than any one there, with a majority behind him which, on any question not vital, will be irresistible, and which may be easily used to compel the refused appeal to the people. Ireland cannot be governed, nor can any good work be done, by a Government in such a position ; and we can hardly believe that either Lord Salisbury or Lord Hartington would attempt under such conditions to assume power. Either might have taken it in order to dissolve, had that been possible ; but to take it in order to go through a multitude of bye-elections, and then dissolve in order to go through them again, is not a probable course. Lord Salisbury, it is clear from his speeches, desires a dissolution ; and Lord Hartington can hardly bring himself to take power with the opinion of the country still utterly uncertain. Neither, we admit, will think much either of themselves or of their colleagues ; but they are bound to think of the State, and with the House of Commons in the condition in which the defeat of the Ministry will leave it, neither deliberation nor action to any good purpose will be possible. As to the withdrawal of the Bill, which many recommend as an alternative, even if the House would consent to that step, we do not believe that the Premier will agree to such a humiliation. It would be a confession of a great personal failure. People talk nonsense about Mr. Gladstone's desire for power being the sole cause of his measure. He desires power, no doubt, like all other men of his type ; but he believes in his Bill with all his heart ; he thinks that the constituencies are with him, though their representatives are not ; and he has no motive whatever for shrinking from the contest, which his constant consciousness of his age must urge him not to postpone. Indeed, we think it very dubious if the Parnellites would allow a withdrawal, which could hardly be explained in America, and which involves unknown risks from delay ; and they, it should not be forgotten, still hold the balance of power, and can, until the country has decided on its course, lock the wheels of the legislative machine.
That a dissolution will be exceedingly unpleasant to num- bers of Members, and that it is dreaded by all "managers," and especially Liberal managers, may be easily understood. The expenses of an election have been much reduced, but they are still considerable, and the House elected last year contained an unusual number of men to whom they are important. The fatigue and worry, too, are very great, more especially when, as in the present instance, every Liberal Member will be called upon to explain himself with considerable care before a par- tially hostile audience. Those disagreeables cannot, however, be avoided ; they fall upon all parties alike, and they must be faced for the sake of preventing what might speedily become a deadlock. Members may console them- selves with the thought that the next Parliament will pro- bably be a long one, and with the reflection that no action,
either of Mr. Gladstone or Lord Hartington, or any one else, could possibly avert the appeal to the country for more than one Session. After all, they are not so much hurt as the Minister who, to keep his conscience clear, resigns the appoint- ment which has been the object of a life, or the old Member who, for the same reason, throws away a seat in which he had believed himself to be permanently secure. As to the wire-pullers, their fears are, no doubt, well founded. The Liberal Party will, it is true, go to the polls in a state of distraction and division without parallel in our time ; but then, where is the help for that ?
The division exists, the distraction is visible at every meeting, and neither of them will be one whit lessened by a few weeks' delay. All the " negotiations " of which we have heard so much, have only served to prove that the differences are radical, and that even the few "Federalists" have no sym- pathy with the central idea of the Home-rulers. The former want to delegate power, the latter to grant it away. Candi- dates must be independent for once, and lead their con- stituents, instead of following them ; and they may entertain at least this one hope. The subject of contest is so big, that the dividing-line is almost certain to be clear.
Democracies do not split hairs, and the broad distinction
between Unionists and Disunionists will soon be sufficiently palpable, and will be the only one regarded by the voters.
They will probably state the difference in the form of a
question, "Shall you support Mr. Gladstone, or not ?" but they will mean the same thing. The struggle will be too hot to allow of many triangular duels, and will compel the sacrifices of self which in quieter elections men are so slow to make. The Moderates and Unionists cannot be treacherous if they would, for they will not be safe without Tory votes ; and we do not expect treachery from the Tories. They realise too keenly that their whole future is at stake.
The result of the dissolution is still a problem, and there is probably not a politician in the country without an opinion about it ; but the opinions are as various as the politicians.
There is no serious doubt that the Tories will vote in a solid block for Union, and as little that the regular party organisations on the Liberal side will fight hard for Mr.
Gladstone. The real doubt is whether the Tories, plus the Unionists, will be numerous enough to beat those organisations ; and that depends upon classes who, until the moment for voting arrives, will remain as silent as if they were dead. The natural expectation from the statistics of the last Election is that if all the Unionists vote together, they will carry a large majority of seats by a small majority of the total poll ; but that expectation may be falsified. The Unionists are resisting a man whose hold upon the people is an unknown quantity, and resisting for a cause about which the real instinct of the massea is unknown. At the very last moment, some appeal from Mr. Glad- stone may cause a peaceful uprising of the democracy before which nothing can stand ; while at the last moment, also, the old dread of the Catholic Church, which was once such a living force in our politics, may burst into a flame and undo all his efforts. The journalists of the Kingdom have behaved thoroughly well in keeping the religious ques- tion out of a contest which is bitter enough already, and grows more bitter every day ; but it is vain to expect that heated orators will show the same moderation. That so great an issue should be referred to so unknown a judge, sitting without appeal, is a fact to make grave men quake, and doubt if nations so governed can be stable ; but it is the central fact of democracy, and there is no help. The decision, at all events, will be clear enough, and it will be final.
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