TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE WAVERING IN SCOTLAND, AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE.
_LiREMARKABLE letter from Edinburgh to last Sunday's Observer illustrates very effectively what we have endeavoured to press upon our readers as to the difference between by-elections and a General Election. The writer of course belongs to the Unionist Party, and we should therefore, as Unionists, hesitate to trust his anticipations too implicitly ; but his facts show that even in Scotland there are many causes at work which appear likely to undermine the unity of the Gladstonian Party at the next General Election, though they have not affected materially the by-elections. For instance, Mr. Bolton, the Member for Stirlingshire, has intimated that he will not again represent Stirlingshire in the Home-rule interest ; and Sir Charles Tennant has withdrawn from his candidature for Peebles- shire. It is said that if one seat is lost by the Unionists in Glasgow (that for the St. Rollox Division of Glasgow), certainly two, and perhaps three seats for Glasgow will be gained by the Unionists; that two of the divisions of Lanark- shire are likely to become Unionist; that one of the Aberdeen- shire seats will be lost to the Home-rulers; that a seat will be gained in Perth, another in the Dumfries, and another in the Montrose Burghs ; and that, on the whole, the gain in Scotland to the Unionist cause may be fifteen, and pro- bably will be not far short of that number. The chief reason appears to be the serious dissatisfaction with Mr. Gladstone's Disestablishment policy which is felt by a good many of his own Scotch followers ; but other causes are also at work. The Labour candidatures cause much division in the party. The Labour candidate detaches votes from the Home-rule candidate, and the Home-rule candidate will not accept the policy of the Labour party ; and between the two stools, it seems probable that the Gladstonians will get more than one fall, and that Unionists will be returned. In short, the party which in by-elections holds steadily together because there is no sufficient motive to break it up for an object which cannot be gained except at a General Election, will find that it cannot maintain its unity when the moment comes for determining what is to be done not only with regard to Home-rule, but with regard to the hours of labour, and still more with regard to that important ques- tion in Scotland which affects the future of a historical Church so dear to the imagination of a large portion of the Scotch people. We may feel sure that if there is a considerable probability of a moderate gain to the Unionists in both Ireland and Scotland,—and in Ireland even the Home-rulers themselves reckon the probable Unionist gain at about eight seats,—the Gladstonian gain in England will be nothing like so great as the Gladstonians anticipate, even if they have any gain at all. It is pretty certain indeed, that in a fair number of the rural divisions of England, the Gladstonians will win back what they lost in 1886 ; but it is by no means certain that these Unionist losses may not be compensated by gains in the towns and cities. At all events, if we have a gain of twenty seats in Scotland and Ireland together, it will take a very large gain indeed in England to annihilate the large majority which the Unionists have at present. What has nappened in all sections of the Kingdom appears to be this,—that the division in the Irish Party, and the discredit which that division and its causes have created, have taken, if not all the glamour and romance, still a very large part of it, out of the enthusiasm for Mr. Gladstone's policy. Where the Gladstonians will gain ground, it will not be by virtue of their Irish policy, but by virtue either of the old cries which chiefly stirred the rural voters before the Irish policy came to the front, or by virtue of those which have arisen since,—such as the great ques- tion as to the legislative limitation of the hours of labour. The voters who think that they shall get better allot- ments on easier terms from the Gladstonians than they will from the Unionists, or who think that they shall get shorter hours of labour for the same or higher wages, or who hope to be rid of the Vaccination Laws, or who are angry with the Magistrates of Petty Sessions, and forget what it will cost them in taxes or rates if the " great Unpaid " are to be superseded, will vote for the Gladstonians, on the general principle on which democra- cies always seem to prefer to vote those out who are in, and those in who are out. In many of the rural con- stituencies there will undoubtedly be Gladstonian gains of this kind, but they will very rarely, if ever, be gains due to a passionate sympathy with Ireland, or a cordial admiration of Mr. Gladstone's generous zeal for "the Union of Hearts." We think we may say that all the fervour of that emotion has disappeared since Mr. Parnell and Mr. McCarthy broke off from co-operation, and that even the leaders, when they are as shrewd as Sir William Harcourt, keep that aspect of their policy in the background, and devote themselves chiefly to showing that the Conservative Government are not really the friends of the people, and that they may be expected to withdraw with one hand what they give with the other. So far as the Irish Question keeps its. place in the front of the battle, so far we expect the Government to gain ground, and not to lose it. After all, the English people are perfectly aware that Ireland has been very well treated by this Government,—that the starving people in the West have been very generously dealt with, that the tenant-farmers have now muck brighter prospects before them, that the industries of Ireland are being fostered, that only the moonlighters and the boycotters, and the agitators who stimulate them, have been punished. All this has made a great impression, and if only the English democracy were not thoroughly weary of the Irish Question, it would have made so great an impression that the Government would be very popular with the English people, instead of being re- garded as representing the cause of tyranny. It is only where the Irish Question has in great measure faded from view, and the old conflict has been raging as to which of the two parties most heartily favours the popular cause, that the Government have lost ground. The natural tendency of democracies to be weary of the people who are in, and to incline doubtfully, but on the whole steadily, to those who are out, threatens the Unionist majority ; but there is no longer anything like enthusiasm for Irish Home-rule.
The consequence is, that where there is anything that the people really value which is threatened by the Glad- stonians,—as, for instance, the Scotch Establishment,—it seems most probable that the General Election will show a great cooling of the enthusiasm with which Mr. Gladstone has hitherto been regarded ; but that in constituencies which do not fear any attack on a popular institution,—the Union, which is, we hope, a popular institution, not being regarded as seriously threatened in the eyes of Gladstonians, so little of statesmanship is there among the electors at large,—the democracy is disposed to give the periodic swing to the political pendulum, and try what " the outs " will do for them which " the ins " have not done. That is the danger with which the Unionists have to contend. There will be no " boom " for Irish Home-rule at the General Election. There may be a profound indifference to the decision on that question and a consequent disposition to change the Government, in many constituencies. We may, however, feel some confidence that exactly where the Irish Question is most prominent, the success of the Government will be the greatest.
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