A NEW WESTERN EUROPE .
WITHIN the next week two steps of great importance towards the creation of a new European society will, in all probability, have been taken. It is true that for the moment only Western Europe is affected, but Western Europe, as Mr. Herbert Agar points out in his latest book, reviewed on a later page of this issue, has traditions and a consistent character of its own. To link the nations that com- pose it in a practical, working unity, less perilously constrict- ing than a formal political union, marks the beginning, and a wise and well-considered beginning, of a process which its visible virtues may commend in time even to the Sovietised east, which today endeavours to thwart it by all means short of war. Federal Germany is in the centre of the stage, as she is in the centre of Europe. The two major agreements which, it is hoped, are to be signed at the beginning of next week concern her directly and chiefly. One confers on her virtually complete independence and sets her on an equal footing with the other nations of the West; the second brings her, with her potential military strength, into the European Defence Com- munity and the European Army, and since the controlling bodies of the European Army and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation can be required, on demand, to sit together Germany becomes in everything but name a member of the latter body. She is already a full member of the Council of Europe. It is possible that at the meeting of the Assembly of that body at Strasbourg next week an attempt will be made to secure for the Council wider powers Mr. Eden has sub- mitted a -plan for increasing the Council's usefulness, and to go further than that at this stage would be very doubtful wisdom. Those who are urging that the nations of Western Europe should get closer together still would do well to consider the remarkable progress they have made in the process of getting closer in the last three years. It is more than sufficient for the moment to get the Schuman plan and the European Army plan and the contractual agreement with Germany work- ing smoothly.
We are some way distant from that point yet. The European Army treaty has indeed been initialled, and no question is likely to be raised regarding its signature—except by the German Social Democrats, who may succeed in forcing a debate on the subject in the Bundestag; but Dr. Adenauer, to whom tribute must be paid for the combination of goodwill and firmness with which he has put his country's case in negotiations with the Allies, should be able to face that with equanimity. More serious is the continued failure to agree on the proportion of Germany's defence contribution to be devoted to the upkeep of the British and American, French and Belgian, troops in Western Germany. They will be no longer armies of occu- pation, but integral parts of the N.A.T.O. forces defending Western Europe. The position is complicated by the fact that Germany is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and cannot hand over her agreed contribution (10,200,000,000 marks) to be allocated by the Council of that body, and that Britain and the United States are not members of the European Defence Community, which, therefore, is equally disqualified from effecting the allocation. There are greater issues at stake than the financial, but financial considera- tions tend to bulk unduly large when it is a question of secur- ing Parliamentary endorsement. That no doubt accounts for the vigour with which the Germans are contesting the Allies' claim. The four Foreign Ministers, by whom a final decision may in the end have to be taken, can be expected to give due weight to that, but so far as the next twelve months are concerned Germany's military preparations cannot have made sufficient progress for heavy expenditure on them to be required. There is no reason to think the Allies' demands excessive— Germany's global figure was substantially scaled down in the course of earlier Paris discussions—and the necessary com- promise will no doubt be reached in time for the contractual agreement to be signed next week.
That development will not be unattended by anxiaty. It is taken for granted that Russia will make some counter-move, and the form it may take is unpredictable. Western Berlin appears to expect new pressure, and is prepared to resist -it. Russian interference with Allied patrols on the Berlin autobahn in the past week may have been due to misunderstanding, or be a try-out of some new policy of irritation. So far it has been a small matter, and the normal arrangements are now restored. But other manifestations, calling for steady nerves in Western countries, are possible. Warnings, or threats, from East Ger- many have not been lacking. It would be natural for the Russians to hand over more authority to Herr Grotewohl's Government, for it would manifestly be politic to give the maximum appearance of independence to the East German Government at a time when the West German Government is acquiring little less than complete independence. The East will have, indeed already has, force at its disposal. It was stated in the House of Commons last week that there exists in East Germany what is described as a uniformed para- military force of 53,000 men, amply armed and capable of rapid expansion. For what purpose it exists can only be sur- mised. East Germany is threatened by no one. Dr. Adenauer has stated that he has no thought of regaining either Eastern Germany or the provinces lost to Poland by war, and he knows he would get neither sympathy nor support from the rest of the European Defence Community in such a project. But the East German force has been described as being " very much under Soviet influence," and it is the established policy of Russia to make trouble (as in Korea) without the firing of a single Russian rifle. A putsch from East Germany is not probable, if only because the great majority of the adult population there is hostile to the regime and capable, of making serious trouble for it, but as a possibility it cannot be completely excluded.
Meanwhile a reply from the Soviet Government to the latest Allied Note on free elections for Germany and kindred subjects is being awaited. It can hardly fail to throw some light on the so far unresolved question whether Russia genuinely desires a peaceful settlement in Europe or not. That she aimed at delay- ing the integration of Germany in Western Europe is plain. When that integration is carried a long stage forward—not the final stage, for ratification will still remain, and in most countries that requires Parliamentary approval, as signature does not—will Russia accept the fait accompli and adapt her policy- to it., or react with some unpredictable new stroke ? Opinions on that differ, and the question can only be answered by the event. She would have much to gain by giving positive effect to her own suggestions about free elections in the whole of Germany. Their freedom would, of course, have to be guaranteed in advance; that at present is one of the sticking- points; but if they took place they would almost certainly result in the installation of a Social Democratic Government at Bonn (or more probably at Berlin) and that would presumably be more to Russia's taste than the present coalition. More- over, it has been accepted that the treaties to be signed next week with a Western Germany would be open to revision if a unified Germany took shape. The Kremlin might see some attractions in that course, and the process of discussion with Western Ministers might conceivably result in a sufficient detente to permit, among other things, the work of the Disarmament Commission and the United Nations generally to proceed with genuine Russian co-operation. No one can think that there are grounds for optimism. The Soviet Union is still as .unco-operative as ever over the conclusion of a treaty with Austria. But an understanding with Russia must still remain the supreme objective of the Western Powers. There can be no question of resting content with the political con- solidation of Western Europe and the mobilisation of a suffi- cient force for its defence. That simply accentuates and perpetuates the division of the continent. It cannot be united against Russia's will; the West must go to all reasonable, and even if need be to unreasonable, lengths to change her will. That must not be written off as inconceivable.
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