MARKET ARITHMETIC Etc Hugh Macpherson

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As the Parliamentary Labour party faced the hazards of a tobacco smog, and an address on the merits of entering Europe by Mr Michael Stewart, in the upstairs committee room on Tuesday a loud hammering was heard outside. "Listen Roy," said Mr Eric Ogden, "they're building the scaffold," But much more was afoot than political euthanasia. Within an hour or two anti-marketeers in the Tory party gathered to swear loyalty to the swift march across the Rubicon next Thursday, and to meet again to put down an amendment to the Queen's Speech opposing entry.

Around the corridors Labour marketeers were delighted at gaining 111 votes in the PLP and saw the Conservative leader as their saviour. The Labour Shadow Cabinet deliberated. MPs on each side of the fence went coyly towards their umpteenth cheque for a radio or television appearante. Sir Gerald Nabarro took his Socialist brothers in his arms and announced that they were on the run. And, in the midst of this carnival, soundings were being taken for candidates for the deputy leadership of the Labour party which will be decided soon after the vote on the twenty-eighth.. For the record views were being sought on the merits of Mr Wedgwood Benn, Mr Michael Foot and, that consecrated Caledonian obstruction, Mr William Ross. The Commons was excited.

Now there is nothing unusual about that. At Westminster nothing is anticipated with more relish than a spot of drama — men changing sides, spies, Colonel Sammy Lohan, a resignation, a spot of sexual scandal, anything to break the monotony. The House will fall quietly asleep during the passage of the Finance Bill involving God knows how many millions of pounds but let an undersecretary lay a finger on a barmaid and rock cakes will crash to the floor in the mad scramble to the Chamber for a spot of true confessions. All that the diligent scribe can do in the circumstances is to lay out the facts as he relentlessly sought them.

First it should be noted that despite all the excitement about the vote on the twenty-eighth, it is not critical unless the figure were absurdly high, say a majority in favour of entry of 120, or precariously low, say less than forty. Anti-marketeers have always taken the view that the government would have a handsome majority on this vote. The crucial figure is the number of hard line Tory antimarketeers which is now between thirty and forty — certainly more than the government's overall majority. It was when that hard fact had to be faced that Mr Heath bowed to the advice of Mr Pym and Mr Whitelaw and announced that he had, for once, changed his mind, and would allow a free vote. This was done quite contrary to the advice of Sir Alec Douglas-Home who took the view that a free vote was a nonsense and would lead to untold party troubles later on.

It was a radical change, for Mr Heath had said on July 12, "From my experience and talks with them, the leaders of the Community expect the Government to use its majority in the Commons to carry this through. This is the only basis on which they have been prepared to negotiate." And, for good measure, he added: "You could not expect ... countries to use all their resources in negotiating for a year on the basis that ' We have made our decision but of course you can do what you like.'" However, despite the many whips and scorpions available to Tory party managers, the rebel group stayed at a number above the nominal Tory majority in the House. It is now openly acknowledged that Mr Heath will rely on Labour votes to see him through next week and then bravely face the fuure.

Mr Heath's Damascus Road conversion was mainly due to the fact that something had to be done to redeem his pledge of consultation with people and parliament when the country has now visibly turned even further away from his grand European design. The expensive campaign run by the party machine, and partly on State funds, has failed. His conversion would have been more acceptable had he announced the freedom at the beginning of the constituency consultations this summer than in the last few days before the principle of entry is to be debated, As it is the freedom he has now been forced to give his own rebels could cost him dear.

And that brings us to the Labour rebels. Despite the intellectual cartwheels which they are turning, and it is patently absurd to speak of splendid moral gestures on the twenty-eighth followed by vigorous opposition afterwards, the overwhelming majority are absolutely committed to opposing the subsequent passage of legislation, guillotine motions, or any move to take committee stages upstairs. Unworthy as all that may seem, it is a fact. Now if it is the case that the thirty or more Conservative rebels continue to oppose entry the consequential legislation has no chance of passing through the House, either by a defeat or by becoming bogged down in Parliamentary procedure.

As to the personalities involved, the

salvage operations on Mr Roy Jenkins, surely the most impressive since Brunel's Great Britain was restored to a grateful nation, continue unabated. But as his lieutenants post o'er corridor and tearoom without rest and he stands and waits at the Beefsteak, it is already plain that some of his comrades in the Labour Shadow

• Cabinet have had enough. "Roy will have to remember" said one this week, "the saying of Nye Bevan that you cannot have the thirty pieces of silver and the crown of thorns at the same time. If he votes with the Tories next week, I am not carrying him on a sedan chair through the wilderness next year."

Even more curiously Mr Jenkins may

be lost to them for ever for it has been suggested to some senior Labour party members that he has been offered the post of editor of the Times should he resign on principle. Now whether this has any substance or not is difficult to determine. It could even be an attempt bY the pro-Europeans, whose reasoning is inscrutable, to scare out some sympathy from wavering supporters of the former Chancellor. All that can be said with certainty is that the rumour was not initiated by that prominent supporter of British entry, Mr William Rees Mogg.

The future of the immediate group

surrounding Mr Jenkins is now an unhappy one. Their first choice is to vote continually, or selectively, with the government on consequential legislation, and become isolated in a truly European style coalition with the Conservatives. The alternative for Mr Jenkins, Mr Thompson, Mr Lever and Mrs Williams is to stand on their heads and oppose the subsequent legislation which is their most likelY course — especially on the part of Mr Lever who is vociferous in his loyalty to Mr Wilson. But Mr Heath, very properly, will point to their support when the Common Market chickens come home to roost, especially in the Development Areas which are Labour strongholds. The first problem for these reluctant martyrs is the election to the Shadow Cabinet which takes place in November.

As far as personalities are concerned, on the Conservative side, only one is involved and that is Mr Heath himself. It can be put quite succinctly. If the European gamble fails there will be no general election, n° matter how fervently Mr Wilson demand it. There will be a new Prilhe Minister. Just that.