TILE FRENCH ELECTIONS
C ornmonwealt It and Foreioi
FRANCE goes to the polls on Sunday to elect a Chamber of Deputies. The campaign has been quiet to the point of dullness, and apart from a greater number of broadcast speeches has followed established lines. Hard times have been reflected in a general paucity of posters, yet the relative prodigality of the Communists would seem to indicate that there must be money some- where. Nothing has occurred to cause excitement. Everything has been humdrum..
Although the candidates average six for each of the 600 odd seats, they have been in the main listless ; there is nothing to prove that the electors are not in the same mood. The number of absentees has tended to increase in recent elections to such an extent that the introduction of compulsory voting has been broached. Should the sun shine brightly on Saturday, it may tempt many afield whom the cold kept at home for the Easter week-end. In these conditions the prospects are that the new Chamber will resemble the old, and there seems to be foundation for the report that M. Albert Sarraut confidently expects to continue as Premier.
Some have ascribed this calm to the fact that the election is overshadowed by the gravity of the inter- national situation. Doubtless this factor has its weight, but it can only explain the calm, not the indifference. No French election ever has been fought on foreign affairs, and this one does not seem likely to prove an exception., All candidates allude to the international situation ; they could not well do otherwise. But the references are merely casual. All candidates agree in asserting that they stand for peace ; they differ only on the manner of its preservation. Generally the Left is "against war," a formula which it considers self- sufficient and self-explanatory. Generally the Right is "for peace," a formula which it feels constrained to qualify—peace " without abdication," peace " with dignity," peace to maintain which one must be prepared for war. To gauge the influence of the international situation on the election it is sufficient to consider the appeal launched by the Alliance.Democratique. It fills 342 lines of the Temps; exactly 12 lines are devoted to foreign policy. Yet the President of the Alliance Democratique is M. Pierre Etienne Flandin, Minister of Foreign Affairs. It is evident that foreign policy, in itself, claims the attention of few electors ; it will not be an issue on Sunday.
Truth to tell, there is before the French elector no issue clear-cut and outstanding. Under the present system of government there seldom is. In the first volume, just published, of what bids fair to be a monumental work, M. Andre Tardieu describes the FrArich elector as "The Captive Sovereign" (this is the title of the volume), so ignorant of the working of his Constitutional Laws that he imagines he enjoys prerogatives where there are only obligations. Obviously, controversial points abound in M. Tardieu's argumentation, just as they abound in the numerous suggestions for constitutional reform advanced in recent years. The fact remains, nevertheless, that there is a wide measure of agreement on the need for such reform.; it figures in many electoral appeals. There is no clear-cut issue for several major reasons, all interlocking. Parliament is never dissolved; political parties are too numerous ; elections continue to be conducted by scrutin 'arrondissement (individual candi- datures in restricted constituencies) ; there is a second ballot a week later in eases where no candidate has obtained an absolute majority, i.e., at least half plus one of the votes cast. The Chamber is elected for four years. In theory it may be dissolved by the President of the Republic, with the assent of the Senate, if it cannot work in harmony with Cabinets. In practice Marshal MacMalion's isolated exercise of the prerogative of dissolution GO years ago evoked such an outcry against " personal rule " that it has been permitted tacitly to lapse. A Chamber may play ninepins with Cabinet after Cabinet ; the electorate has no voice in the matter until four years have passed. There is no appeal to the country, in the English sense. General elections merely come round at the appointed time—like quarter-day. There are so many parties that, nowadays at any rate, none ever has a majority over all the others, none can govern alone. All Cabinets are "of concentration." Merely to form such a coalition, a Premier must apportion portfolios with a very fine sense of proportion--so ninny votes, so many Ministries. One inevitable consequence is the advent of Ministers with scant qualifications ; another is the multiplication of parties. To hold such a coalition together, the line of least .resistance is inaction.
To take a concrete ease, the late Chamber set to work in 1932 with Left coalition Cabinets. After the bloody events of February, 1934, they gave way to National coalitions. Two of these Governments– Douniergue and Laval—were unable to act except by decree. Towards the end of the Legislature there was a reversion to the initial situation—a Sarraut Cabinet of the Left, with the Chamber striving to undo all that the decrees had done. Some Ministers have belonged to both coalitions.
What means has the elector at the polls to pass judge- ment on these four years ? All political considerations apart, there are sonic patent facts. The cost of living remains high, so does taxation. Salaries and wages are lower. Trade is bad. The Budget deficit is large. The currency is threatened. Whom can he hold r(s7m1- sible for all this ? Power in the aggregate has been exercised these four years by all parties, with the excep- tion of the Extreme Right and the Extreme Left. The man of extreme views, therefore, can have no hesitation in casting his vote fur. But extremists are the minority. Among the others there are those who wish to show their dissatisfaction with things as they are by voting against. Men of moderate views will run amuck and support the extreme groups, if only temporarily. The outcome of the election depends on their number. It is believed by competent observers, for example, that the Communists will gain a number of seats at the expense of the Socialists. But the Socialists in their turn will gain seats from the liadicaLs. There may- be a similar process at the other end of the scale ; • certainly some who have suffered from the loss of trade with Italy will support those Right groups which oppose sanctions.
Generally speaking. these changes are likely to occur in the great industrial centres, also in those parts where the peasant most feels the pinch of agricultural depression. In the smaller urban districts and the remainder of the rural constituencies, the choice will be for " the man we know," the candidate who, regardless of party label„ will consistently defend local interests against all corners. The new Chamber thus promises to be a little redder at one end, a little whiter at the other. The Popular Front (Left) is likely to outnumber the National Front (Right). But it is very doubtful whether any single party will be strong enough to form a Cabinet alone, and France seems likely to continue to be governed by coalitions.
Previous page
