THE NEW MINISTRY IN FRANCE.
THE crisis in France has resolved itself thus far, that there is again a Ministry which, so long as the Chamber will permit, can act. M. Jules Ferry, though far too Jacobin, especially on religious questions, for our approval, is a man of great and varied capacity, with a certain quality of persistence which has all the effect of firmness, and with a faculty for managing Extremists which is becoming essential to a French statesman. He has gathered together such relics of the Gam- bettist Administration as are not pledged to M. de Freycinet, and his Cabinet is not unattractive to the majority in the Chamber. They prefer competent men, though they will not support them ; and M. Challemel-Lacour, the Minister for Foreign Affairs ; General Thibaudin, the Minister at War ; M. Waldeck-Rousseau, the Minister of the Interior ; M. Martin Feuillee, Minister of Justice, and M. Raynal, Minister of Public Works, though objectionable on other grounds, have at least the ability required for governing. They are all, in their way, strong men. M. Tirard, the Finance Minister, it is true, may not be,—at least, M. Leon Say obviously distrusts his skill, and he made before some sad blunders as to his surplus,—but the Haute Finance is so opposed to any Ministry of the Left, that the Premier pro- bably had no other choice. The Cabinet, moreover, is com- posed of the kind of men whom the Deputies individually approve. Several of the Ministers, as, for example, M. Jules Ferry and M. Challemel-Lacour, are accomplished men ; but there is not a " de" among them, none are by birth above the professional class, and one at least—M. Raynal, who was a railway porter, or, more probably, sub-inspector of traffic— is a marked example of the rise of a new couche sociale. Social jealousies go very deep in France, and the Deputies will bear from men of this kind what they would not accept from men of higher social pretensions. They are, too, glad to be able to point out to electors that in France the political career has become easily accessible to all. M. Jules Ferry, therefore, has a Ministry which will be heard, and he has two other great advantages in his favour. This is the most Jacobin Ministry which could hope to govern with the Senate, and will, therefore, attract some support from the Extremists, who recently have been boiling with irritation ; and it is the last which can be made without a Dissolution. It is stated that M. Ferry's first condition on taking office was that, if the Chamber proved impracticable, the Senate should be asked to dissolve ; and even if that is untrue, the prospect of the de- mand is on the face of things. M. de Freycinet could not manage the Chamber any more than M. Jules Ferry, while his appointment as Premier would frighten all those holders of Rente, with whom it must not be forgotten the average peasant deeply sympathises. The President cannot go on for ever putting scratch Ministries together, and it is therefore improbable that he will again allow a Ministry to be over- thrown without, at all events, exerting his constitutional right to give the Senate advice. The fear of a Dissolution is very deep in the minds of the Deputies, who know that the Government may precede it by a demand for Scrutin de Liste, and who feel that with no Gambetta to thunder out a word of command, the action of universal suffrage must be more or less uncertain. The next Chamber might be unex- pectedly moderate, or it might contain a majority of Extremists, who have always this advantage,—that their followers poll to the last man. The Ministry, therefore, will receive much support from the self-interested, while it will not awaken those hatreds which in France are stronger even than self- interest. It is, in fact, as strong as any Ministry in France can now be.
Nevertheless, we cannot either approve this Ministry or predict for it any length of life. It will, we fear, be Jacobin in feeling,—that is, will be disposed to persecute the Church, to threaten the Magistracy, and to proscribe all politicians who. are willing to serve France, but not to advance the cause of particular sections of opinion. That is not, in our judgment, the tone which it is either right or safe for a Republic to adopt, more especially when it has still to prove that it can include all citizens who do not openly plot or intrigue against its existence. M. Jules Ferry's compromise about the Princes, his adoption of the law of 1834, which allows the Head of the State to place any officer in retreat, seems to us radically unjust, as unjust as it would be in this country to use the Queen's legal right of dismissing officers without a reason, against all eldest sons. He intends to govern by concessions to political panic, which, when they are obviously unjust, are unworthy of honourable rulers. General Thibaudin agrees with him, and will, more- over, be forced, by his exceptional and unhappy posi- tion as a man who has broken parole, into the ranks of those Extremists who forgive everything on account of fidelity to party. His only prospect of a career is to satisfy a party that he is indispensable, and the only party he can so satisfy is the Jacobin. M. Challemel-Lacour again; besides being in opinion of Extremist proclivities, as he showed throughout the discussion on the Proscription Bill, is obviously inclined to the policy known to Americans as " waving the ban- ner," or, in other words, disposed to seek popularity by a forward policy which may disturb the whole world. He can easily do things in Egypt which would throw all Europe into commotion, and we feel no confidence that he will not do them, his very first proposal being a Bill for the settlement of Tunis which will rouse Italian susceptibilities to fever-heat. He is, more- over, known to be devoted to M. Gambetta's idea of extend- ing the dependencies of France, and will press her claims on Madagascar, Tonquin, and the New Hebrides, in a very irri- tating, if not dangerous way. We look forward, therefore, to the action of the new Ministry with a certain apprehension, while we can hardly believe that it will be popular with the Chamber or the country. The latter is distinctly not disposed to quarrel with the Monarchical Courts, with England, and with China all at once, while the former has repeatedly, as Lord Reay recently showed, voted down every proposal for active intervention in any part of the world. There is, no doubt, a section of the French people which is very sensitive under the sneer implied in the phrase, " The effacement of France ;" but M. Climenceau and his followers will only be irritated by the revival of projects which they thought abandoned. They are, we believe, in earnest in their conviction that France requires "a policy of the fireside," and they will vote down any Ministry which on any serious emergency deserts it. A suspicion that the Ministry intended war would ruin it, and a policy of self-assertion such as M. Challemel-Lacour recommends cannot be carried far without that suspicion being actively aroused. To be at once Chauvinist and peaceful is in France impossible, and the Ministry will probably be wrecked on a vote about some despatch. While, therefore, we acknowledge that France has again a Government, we do not think it a good one, and doubt if it will last, even under the new pressure of the threat of disso- lution. Its programme implies that intention to " com- bat" as well as govern, which is the very essence of Jacobin- ism, and which, whenever France is inclined for quiet, must bring any Government down. It may be, of course, that France, imperceptibly to foreigners, has changed her mood ; but France is not very variable, 'except about constitutions, and it is not two years since M. Gambetta, the direct choice of the people, was deserted, because it was thought that his policy must lead ultimately to war. Nothing had occurred since to weaken the indisposition of the peasantry to expend either their children or their money, and we do not believe that it has been weakened. As we understand them, they will insist on quiescence abroad, and steady, though Radical, government at home, and that, though it may be the programme, is not the tone of the Jules-Ferry Ministry, which is presided over by the man who seized Tunis, selects for the Foreign Office a man who defies the Monarchies to prevent proscription, and entrusts the Army to a General with whom German Staff officers say they can hold no com- munication.
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